August 5-7, 2011

The Change-Up

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None”
Box Office Prediction: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Modest. With all the successful R-rated comedies this year, I would expect this one to do solid business. Jason Bateman deserves a hit.”
Box Office Results: $37.1 M
Thoughts: [Flop] And Bateman will have to resign himself to one popular R-rated comedy this year (Horrible Bosses) for this one didn’t fly.

Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Look for nominations for Visual Effects and perhaps a few other creative categories.”
Oscar Results: It did well enough to be considered a major contender for Best Visual Effects.
Box Office Prediction: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “High. Despite Tim Burton’s best efforts to kill theconcept, this film looks like it could to solid business among younger audiences keen on films about wanton destruction and also aging fans of the original franchise.”
Box Office Results: $176.2 M (still in limited release)
Thoughts: [Success] Assuring a new franchise, the film did amazingly well at the box office, conjuring up memories of the highly popular original and its diminishing returns sequels.

August 12-14, 2011

30 Minutes or Less

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None”
Box Office Prediction: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Low. Comedies about terrorist actions aren’t likely to fly with American audiences.”
Box Office Results: $37.1 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] When you buy cheap pizza, you get what you pay for and that’s what it looks like what we got here.

Final Destination 5

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None”
Box Office Prediction: $70 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Modest. This franchise has a built in audience that has given the last two films successively higher grosses. With 3D involved, I expect this one to top the prior film’s $66 million gross.”
Box Office Results: $42.6 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Perhaps this will end up the final Final Destination, of course it took a lot of weak performances for Saw to come to an end, so who knows.

Glee the 3D Concert Movie

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None”
Box Office Prediction: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Low. Concert films just don’t gross as high as studios want them to.”
Box Office Results: $11.9 M
Thoughts: [Flop] A concert film with no teeth. It’s quite telling of how limitedly popular this television series and its purported legions of fans are. A match in decline to the show’s ratings should have been obvious.

The Help

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Depending on how critics and audiences favor the film, we could be looking at one of the year’s early underdogs.”
Oscar Results: Critics and audiences both loved the film, so chalk it in for several nominations including Best Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Art Direction and Costume Design with others still possible.
Box Office Prediction: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Modest. I think this could be a break-out hit. Emma Stone is a sensational actress and with able support form Viola Davis and Octavia Spencer, this could be quite the surprise hit.”
Box Office Results: $167.6 M (still in limited release)
Thoughts: [Major Success] Not only was it a surprise it, it was a smashing hit.

August 19-21, 2011

Conan the Barbarian

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None”
Box Office Prediction: $85 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Low. I think this could be a big flop. While there are certainly fans out there, I don’t think they’ll crawl out of the wood works the way the studios are expecting.”
Box Office Results: $21.3 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] August is the potential dud dumping ground and that’s what we had here.

Fright Night

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None”
Box Office Prediction: $55 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Low. The original is a great, campy piece of entertainment. The trailer makes this one look a bit too serious-minded, which won’t sit well with fans of the original who are the mostlikely to make this into a hit if any.”
Box Office Results: $18.3 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] As much as we expected the film to do better, this performance is far weaker than we could have imagined. Can this nail the coffin shut on crappy ’80s horror adaptations? Probably not.

One Day

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Lone Scherfig has potential, but this may be too slight and too early in the year to give her much attention.”
Oscar Results: The film was a box office failure and critics didn’t care much for it. Scratch it from your mind.
Box Office Prediction: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “This isn’t the kind of film that yells watch me, but it could be a surprise hit with date night crowds.”
Box Office Results: $13.8 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Date night crowds first have to hear about a film, then that word has to be positive before it makes a difference. It didn’t.

Spy Kids: All the Time in the World

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None”
Box Office Prediction: $100 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “While the second and third films didn’t quite match the original’s impressive $112 million total, the film will still pull in a sizable audience wanting to see the next film in the series.”
Box Office Results: $38.4 M (still in limited release)
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Losing its stars didn’t help this four-quel perform at the box office, matter of fact, it’s anemic result could presage the end of the franchise or maybe a return to the old formula.

August 26-28, 2011

Colombiana

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None”
Box Office Prediction: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Modest. I can see fans of this sub-genre of action films finding the film quite entertaining. Whether it will break out as a hit remains to be seen, but I’d bet it does solid business.”
Box Office Results: $36.7 M
Thoughts: [Flop] It doesn’t seem many people were that enthused about this film as its weak performance was far below what the studio likely expected.

Don’t Be Afraid of the Dark

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None”
Box Office Prediction: $55 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “The horror genre is almost bullet proof. While there are occasionally duds, this one should perform adequately.”
Box Office Results: $24.0 M (still in limited release)
Thoughts: [Flop] The genre is normally hit-or-miss, but it’s been mostly miss lately unless your title is Paranormal Activity.

Our Idiot Brother

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None”
Box Office Prediction: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Modest. As I said before, the R-rated comedy appears to be king this year. Whether this will do respectable business or bombis anyone’s guess. I’m going for “solid performer”.”
Box Office Results: $24.8 M (still in limited release)
Thoughts: [Flop] More R-rated failures, but that’s what August is for, right?