May is the classic beginning of the studios’ box office extravaganza, trying to pull in as much money as they can. A large portion of their annual revenue comes from the period from May through August. While the period just before Memorial Day isn’t as lucrative as the period after, there will be plenty to bring the school-age kids to the box office. Here is what the studios have to offer in the first month of the Tentpole Season.

MAY 6-8, 2011

JUMPING THE BROOM

Premise: Two very different families converge on Martha’s Vineyard one weekend for a wedding.
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Expectations: Absolutely none. The trailer makes the film look unfunny at best and unpleasant at worst. There will still be a demographic that flocks to the film without any hesitation, which should permit it to pull off a passable total.
Oscar Prospects: None.

SOMETHING BORROWED

Premise: Friendships are tested and secrets come to the surface when terminally single Rachel falls for Dex, her best friend Darcy’s fiancé.
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Expectations: This should be another in a long line of unpopular romantic comedies. This is mostly a date movie and while nothing else this weekend comes off as a date movie, this one’s not going to break any records.
Oscar Prospects: None.

THOR

Premise: The powerful but arrogant warrior Thor is cast out of the fantastic realm of Asgard and sent to live amongst humans on Earth, where he soon becomes one of their finest defenders.
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Expectations: We’re not talking about a well known superhero here. Although Marvel has done a terrific job marketing its films, even The Incredible Hulk, which was a more recognizable name, pulled in a scant $134 Million. The other mitigating factor here will be the fact that the film has no bankable stars. Still, being part of the build-up to The Avengers film, it’s likely the film will do solid business. It just won’t be the top grossing superhero film this year.
Oscar Prospects: Maybe some tech award consideration, but it will have to make a boat load of money to even hope for that consideration.

THE BEAVER

Premise: A troubled husband and executive adopts a beaver hand-puppet as his sole means of communicating.
Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Expectations: Some minor curiosity will bring in a bit of money, but ultimately, this indie film looks like the kind of movie the “cool” kids like to poke fun at.
Oscar Prospects: Gibson’s drunken rants and persistent negative image with the public will keep any chances he might have had before his arrests on the nil side.

HOBO WITH A SHOTGUN

Premise: A homeless vigilante blows away crooked cops, pedophile Santas, and other scumbags with his trusty pump-action shotgun.
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Expectations: Trying for a better result than Snakes on a Plane, even a clever premise and outlandish story aren’t likely to make this film very much money. A niche effort is all they can hope for.
Oscar Prospects: None.

MAY 13-15, 2011

BRIDESMAIDS

Premise: Picked as her best friend’s maid of honor, lovelorn and broke Annie (Wiig) looks to bluff her way through the expensive and bizarre rituals with an oddball group of bridesmaids.
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Expectations: Perhaps pushing this in June or July AFTER wedding season might have been a better choice. The specific subject of the film will be too painfully realistic for most brides-to-be. And although this season favors guys, women are still consumers and so it should do minor, if unmemorable business.
Oscar Prospects: None.

PRIEST

Premise: A priest disobeys church law to track down the vampires who kidnapped his niece.
Box Office Prospects: $85 M
Expectations: It’s going to be competing heavily with Thor‘s repeat business, but it has the right kind of appeal to pull them away. The problem is that Paul Bettany’s last attempt at a teen-targeted graphic novel-type flick, Legion, tanked. Producers are hoping that this one will benefit from a May berth, but I don’t expect to do much more than double Legion’s paltry $40 M total.
Oscar Prospects: It has a very stylish look about it, but the Academy won’t care.

CAMERAMAN: THE LIFE AND WORK OF JACK CARDIFF

Premise: A documentary about the life and work of legendary cinematographer Jack Cardiff.
Box Office Prospects: $2 M
Expectations: I don’t expect the box office to sit up and beg for this documentary, but it will appeal to any number of cineastes familiar with Cardiff’s work, which is why I’m including it here.
Oscar Prospects: A documentary about an Oscar-winning legend? It’s got the potential, but even the Academy is shy about honoring docs about artists, even familiar ones.

MAY 20-22, 2011

PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: ON STRANGER TIDES

Premise: Jack Sparrow and Barbossa embark on a quest to find the elusive fountain of youth, only to discover that Blackbeard and his daughter are after it too.
Box Office Prospects: $300 M
Expectations: None of the three films to date have made less than $300 M and despite missing both Orlando Bloom and Keira Knightley, I expect Johnny Depp, who’s been quite successful at the box office in the last several years, should have no problem pulling the film to that magical number and maybe beyond, but missing it should come as a sign that the franchise is indeed faltering.
Oscar Prospects: Each of the films has had potential, but I don’t expect the Academy to jump on this quadquel.

MIDNIGHT IN PARIS

Premise: A romantic comedy about a family traveling to the French capital for business. The party includes a young engaged couple forced to confront the illusion that a life different from their own is better.
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Expectations: Woody Allen’s biggest success 25 years ago (Hannah and Her Sisters posted a $40 M gross with Manhattan and Annie Hall behind by $1 M and $2 M respectively). The last two times he topped $20 M were with major female celebrities at the helm (Scarlett Johansson in 2005’s Match Point and Penelope Cruz in 2008’s Vicky Cristina Barcelona). I don’t think Rachel McAdams is going to cut it, though Owen Wilson may bring in a few people.
Oscar Prospects: Barcelona and Match Point were, coincidentally, the last films that earned Allen any Oscar attention. A good box office would probably help him out, though his European Period seems to be misfiring.

MAY 27-29, 2011

THE HANGOVER, PART II

Premise: Phil, Stu, and Alan travel to Bangkok for Stu’s wedding only to find themselves in another post-blackout misadventure.
Box Office Prospects: $350 M
Expectations: The first film was a surprise $277 M hit. This sequel comes only two years later, which is plenty of time to keep audiences’ attentions piqued. And considering how well sequels to surprise hits can do at the box office, this one should be one of the tops of the year.
Oscar Prospects: The first film didn’t earn anything. The second won’t either.

KUNG FU PANDA 2

Premise: Po joins forces with a group of new kung-fu masters to take on an old enemy with a deadly new weapon.
Box Office Prospects: $400 M
Expectations: The first film made quite a bit less than the original Hangover ($215 M to be precise), but if you consider Shrek as a fairly comparable, sizable hit (about the same size as the original Hangover) whose sequel managed to blow Finding Nemo‘s record-holding $339 M out of the water by just over $100 M more than Nemo, and you have the likely holder for top box office champ of 2011. While I doubt it will top Shrek 2 or last year’s Toy Story 3, it should do quite well opposite The Hangover 2.
Oscar Prospects: The first film lost the Oscar to Pixar’s WALL-E, but things could easily change this year. Since the 2001 inception of the Animated Feature category, Pixar has only lost the award twice in the eight times it was nominated. The second time the loss was suffered by Cars. It is likely that Kung Fu Panda 2‘s chief competition will be Cars 2. Both were massive marketing vehicles and both will be considered overdue (think how Pirates of the Caribbean 2 won Best Visual Effects in 2006 after the first film lost to the juggernaut of The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King in 2003). But in the end, I think Kung Fu Panda 2 ends up the one to beat, but a lot will depend on where critics come down on both films.

THE TREE OF LIFE

Premise: The story centers around a family with three boys in the 1950s. The eldest son witnesses the loss of innocence.
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Expectations: Terence Malick’s new film is highly anticipated, but a May opening seems a bit odd for such a cerebral film. It could mean the film isn’t that great and the studio’s trying to bury it…or they are just waiting for Cannes to weigh in. Either way, the film is likely to do business more on par with his The Thin Red Line ($36.4 M) than his The New World ($12.7 M).
Oscar Prospects: I hate to make the comparison, but once again, it’s either going to come down on The Thin Red Line side of history of The New World side of history. In 1998, Malick’s Line earned seven Oscar nominations, including one for Best Picture. In 2005, Malick’s New World earned only one for Best Cinematography. Critics must be enthusiastic for Tree of Life to pull Line-sized numbers.