There are a lot of interesting prospects this Summer box office season and several films that pique my interest, which is quite contradictory to 2011. And if I’m interested, I have an inkling a lot of people will be, which could make this a huge season. While I haven’t predicted any missteps below, There are a couple of films I could see that happening with (Battleship and Men in Black 3 to be specific), but if all goes as expected, May is going to be big and could be the crowning achievement of the Summer even if June and July typically do better.

May 4, 2012

The Avengers

Premise: From IMDB: “Nick Fury and the international agency S.H.I.E.L.D. bring together a team of super humans to form The Avengers to help save the Earth from Loki & his various membered army.”
Box Office Prospects: $350 M
Expectations: Strong. Of the five films that have predated The Avengers, introducing the characters, only one has made less than $150 million, which means this is going to be a hit. Usually the first film out of the Summer gate is fairly sizable and I see little reason why this won’t be. And with the combined benefit of the four characters from the previous films, I see this one doing tremendous numbers, possibly even the best of the season.
Oscar Prospects: There have been few nominations for The Avengers films, so I don’t expect too much out of this combination film. Though, I could easily see nominations in Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Visual Effects in its future.

The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Premise: From IMDB: “British retirees travel to India to take up residence in what they believe is a newly restored hotel. Less luxurious than its advertisements, the Marigold Hotel nevertheless slowly begins to charm in unexpected ways.”
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Expectations: Minimal. You can’t expect a film with aging stars to be a box office phenomenon, so its limited release should keep it on the low end unless word of mouth does something unexpected.
Oscar Prospects: It’s too early to tell, but a small film like this releasing so early usually means its Oscar prospects aren’t very good, but a few token nominations in acting for its venerable cast may be in the offing. Reviews will be the ultimate determination of that.

May 11, 2011

Dark Shadows

Premise: From IMDB: “An imprisoned vampire, Barnabas Collins, is set free and returns to his ancestral home, where his dysfunctional descendants are in need of his protection.”
Box Office Prospects: $200 M
Expectations: Solid. No matter how much I want this film to fail, Burton has a proven track record of taking bizarre premises and pulling people to them. While I don’t think anything he does now, or anytime soon, will live up to Alice in Wonderland, business on the level of Charlie and the Chocolate Factory would not be surprising.
Oscar Prospects: Art Direction and Costume Design seem a given. Makeup might be a possibility, as might Original Score. Other than that, I don’t expect much else unless the cinematographers like it.

The Dictator

Premise: From IMDB: “The heroic story of a dictator who risks his life to ensure that democracy would never come to the country he so lovingly oppressed.”
Box Office Prospects: $70 M
Expectations: Minimal. Borat was a hit. Bruno was less so. I think this one seems to feel more like a Borat than a Bruno, but that doesn’t mean a lot. Will his schtick just be too old for audiences?

May 18, 2012

Battleship

Premise: From IMDB: “A fleet of ships is forced to do battle with an armada of unknown origins in order to discover and thwart their destructive goals.”
Box Office Prospects: $200 M
Expectations: Questionable. The only reason I’m not suggesting the film will be a flop is that alien invasion films generally do quite well with audiences, which will make this one an obvious contender. However, if reviews (which will likely be bad) and audiences aren’t in favor of the film, it could be a flop.
Oscar Prospects: Visual Effects, Sound Mixing and Sound Editing are the typical Michael Bay qualifiers and I see this film as something of an extension of his brand of filmmaking.

What to Expect When You’re Expecting

Premise: From IMDB: “A look at love through the eyes of five interconnected couples experiencing the thrills and surprises of having a baby, and ultimately coming to understand the universal truth that no matter what you plan for, life doesn’t always deliver what’s expected.”
Box Office Prospects: $70 M
Expectations: Above Average. After the huge hit of Bridesmaids, studios want lightning to strike twice with this similar, but wholly different expectant mother romantic comedy. I don’t think audiences will by the likely comparison.

May 25, 2012

Chernobyl Diaries

Premise: From IMDB: “Follows a group of friends who, while vacationing in Europe, find themselves stranded in the abandoned city only to discover that they are not alone.”
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Expectations: Minimal. Oren Peli’s first film, Paranormal Activity was a novel approach and didn’t feel like a retread of so many horror films like Chernobyl (which he wrote and produced, but didn’t direct), so I expect it to do standard horror business and not the astounding numbers Paranormal managed.

Men in Black 3

Premise: From IMDB: “Agent J travels in time to MIB’s early years in the 1960s, to stop an alien from assassinating his friend Agent K and changing history.”
Box Office Prospects: $200 M
Expectations: Above Average. Will a rosy memory make it a hit? I’m doubtful. The second film didn’t surpass the original and most weren’t impressed with it, which could be one reason it took ten years to get another one made and released. Still, nostalgia can play a factor and if audiences like it better than the second one, it might be a hit…it should do better than the second film, only nominally (inflation would likely push the sequel past this third installment). It also has a lot of competition this Summer, so it will be quickly cannibalized unless it’s a quick hit.
Oscar Prospects: Sequels are rarely popular with Oscar voters and unless the expansion to five nominees gives it a leg up in Visual Effects, Sound Mixing and Sound Editing, I expect it to go home without anything.

Moonrise Kingdom

Premise: From IMDB: “A pair of lovers flee their New England town, which causes a local search party to fan out and find them.”
Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Expectations: Minimal. Wes Anderson has never been a box office draw and it’s been over a decade since one of his films made more than $30 million. So, I’m hedging on the low end since the film looks more on the keel of Steve Zissou or Darjeeling Limited than Royal Tenenbaums.
Oscar Prospects: Of his six films, only two have been nominated for Oscars and neither of them were in the same categorie (The Royal Tenenbaums was nominated for writing and Fantastic Mr. Fox was nominated for music and animated feature. It could be a writing nominee, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.