June 1-3, 2012

Battlefield America

Box Office Prediction: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “The first Step Up film earned a sizable amount guaranteeing a franchise. This one has had far less press, but should perform about on par with the dance extravaganza.”
Box Office Results: $172 K
Thoughts: [Major Flop] I don’t even know why I considered this a potential event. Perhaps it was the similarity in theme to Step Up as I mentioned in my original comment. The advertising wasn’t there, it had a small limited roll-out and critics seemed to hate it (the trailers were terrible too), but this is the hazard of estimating the potential performance of a film like this ahead of reviews.

Snow White and the Huntsman

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “In the battle of the Snow White films, this film has more chances at nominations in categories like Art Direction, Makeup and the sound categories. Yet, Mirror Mirror may beat it to the Costume Design punch. Of course, if the film tanks with critics and/or audiences, it might be ignored entirely.”
Oscar Results: It could still get nominations in Art Direction, Makeup and Costume Design, but the film has been severely overshadowed by a number of other films this year and is fading fast.
Box Office Prediction: $165 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Anything less will be seen as a disappointment. Anything more will be celebrated. It only has one week to prove its potential with a June slate filled with heavy hitters likely to eat away at Snow White’s apple.”
Box Office Results: $155.1 M
Thoughts: [Success] It was the bigger hit of this year’s Show White films and even had better reviews (not from this critic, however), but the total still seems a bit short of what it should have made. Was it too long? Was Kristen Stewart too dead faced? Who knows for sure, but we know there will be a sequel, but it will be The Huntsman as Snow White won’t be back.

June 8-10, 2012

Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “The franchise hasn’t done well at the Oscars, so Best Animated Feature is its only hope and even that is highly unlikely.”
Oscar Results: It could be a longshot Best Animated Feature nominee unlike its predecessors; however, it’s more likely to be ignored in favor of other stronger releases this year. Since this was a sizable hit, things could be different, but I’m going to err on the side of failure.
Box Office Prediction: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Both prior films, despite modest responses from critics, still managed to dominate the box office. This time, however, the stiff Summer competition, especially the release of Brave two weeks later, will quickly cannibalize the film which should be lucky to make my prediction.”
Box Office Results: $216.4 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] It well exceeded the standard box office totals of its predecessors, but a lackluster set of July offerings may have more to do with that than the film actually being celebrated. Brave dented it and even managed to surpass it, but not by much. We are sure to see a boatload of sequels in the future.

Prometheus

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “The first three films in the franchise did well with the Academy, leading me to think that several categories (Original Score, Editing, Cinematography, Art Direction, Makeup, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Visual Effects) could be in play, but if it’s received like the fourth film was, it might not place at all.”
Oscar Results: With its less than stellar box office pull, I’m going to revise my estimations of the film’s chances. It still has strong possibilities in a number of categories, including Art Direction, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Visual Effects, but the film is unlikely to figure elsewhere.
Box Office Prediction: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “With no equitable comparison in recent memory, this return to the depths of the Alien mythos is likely to be a big hit with fans of the franchise even if the prior two outings were rather lackluster”
Box Office Results: $126.5 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] When you have built up this much hype and have legions of fans of your progenitor, you should be making a lot more money than this. My estimates were conservative and it didn’t come that close to that. The film may have been too confusing and too frustrating for Alien franchise fans to really go out and see multiple times.

Bel Ami

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Like Water for Elephants, there will be a push for this film to compete in several categories including Art Direction and Costume Design, but like the aforementioned film, I think it will come up short with Oscar unless it has critics in its corner.”
Oscar Results: At least Water for Elephants was a hit. This one was barely even a blip. Don’t expect anyone to even remember this film existed…and that goes doubly for Oscar voters.
Box Office Prediction: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Robert Pattinson isn’t a box office draw. His two solo efforts on prior occasions didn’t manage more than $60 million. Being a period drama isn’t likely to persuade those who aren’t a fan of the Twilight franchise to give him a look…even Water for Elephants had the bonus of being based on a celebrated novel and it barely reached $58 million.”
Box Office Results: $120.5 K
Thoughts: [Flop] You know those speed bumps that many businesses put down to slow down parking lot traffic? Ever seen them worn down to where they barely make an impression as you speed over them? Now you know what it’s like to read about the dismal performance of Bel Ami.

June 15-17, 2012

Rock of Ages

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “For musicals, Sound Mixing is the one category they have much of a shot in and even that isn’t always to be expected. Still, if there’s a new song in the film, it could be among the nominees, though that didn’t pan out for Hairspray, so who knows at this point.”
Oscar Results: A box office dud gets no Oscar consideration…at least rarely does. This won’t be one of the exceptions.
Box Office Prediction: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Although this film doesn’t have the teen backing the director’s Hairspray had, a lot of fans of 1980’s rock music will be curious to see if their favorite songs will be done justice. With a rather notable cast in tow, it should do quite well.”
Box Office Results: $38.5 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Everything ’80s has been big the past few years, but no one was willing to give a film based on that music much of a chance. And no, Tom Cruise is NOT a box office draw.

That’s My Boy

Box Office Prediction: $110 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Is the Adam Sandler era over? His last film made south of $75 million, a far cry from his typical business. Yet, this outrageous concept should do well to bring his fans back to the theaters, but will he top $100 million again? We’ll see.”
Box Office Results: $36.9 M
Thoughts: [Flop] The reign of Adam Sandler (at least the live-action version of him) may finally be over. Although this film was a bit raunchier than his previous efforts, there’s no denying that his brand has been tarnished (Hotel Translyvania excluded since it didn’t really sell on Sandler’s presence).

June 22-24, 2012

Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Like Cowboys & Aliens and Jonah Hex, initial temptation is to include this film in Art Direction and Costume Design, possibly even makeup, without knowing what the critics will say. But even then, the film really has no chance at either.”
Oscar Results: I can’t imagine the Academy caring about this one…not that I thought they would before.
Box Office Prediction: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Going into the 2010 Summer season, I would have expected Jonah Hex to do better business than it did. That film flopped. While I don’t think this one will fail as miserably, being sandwiched between so many top notch box office contenders will no doubt dwarf the film’s performance. I wouldn’t be surprised if it stopped around Priest-level of $30 million, but I think it may do slightly better out of sure curiosity.”
Box Office Results: $37.5 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Cowboys & Aliens and Jonah Hex. Please welcome your latest failure.

Brave

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “After last year’s Cars 2 debacle, Pixar’s streak is broken, but it’s a short hiccup because every indication points to Brave doing much better than the ill-advised sequel. So, Best Animated Feature is a pretty strong given at this point (unless critics really turn on this one) and even a Best Picture nomination can’t be counted out (especially if critics love it like most other past Pixar films). Then there are categories like Original Score, Original Song and Sound Editing that are all strong possibilities as well.”
Oscar Results: It will be nominated for Best Animated Feature, I have no doubts about that. It might even pick up nods in Sound Mixing and Sound Editing. However, that’s about as far as the film will go and Oscar will likely find another mantlepiece to live on.
Box Office Prediction: $270 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Pixar’s films have been solid performers each time out of the gate. Even the earliest works would make more than $200 million if adjusted for inflation with the lone exception of the critically maligned Cars 2. I see Brave Doing very well and ranking at least in the top 5 unadjusted grosses in history.”
Box Office Results: $236.3 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Success] Even a boffo box office result like this has to be somewhat disappointing. The Pixar brand should have guaranteed a much higher return when you calculate in Disney’s princess-fawning base; however, the film didn’t quite reach my expectations. I can’t really call it a flop or unexceptional, though.

Seeking a Friend for the End of the World

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Steve Carell’s comedies, even when well-received by critics, are seldom contenders at the Oscars. Things could change with this one, but I’m not counting on it.”
Oscar Results: You don’t parlay a meager box office into Oscar success, especially when you were supposed to be profitable.
Box Office Prediction: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Steve Carell has only had one dud in the last 7 years and even that came close to $50 million. I see this one performing well with those who don’t typically find Carell funny as the movie looks quite a bit different than his usual fare. Unfortunately, if this performs the same way that Will Ferrell’s atypical project Stranger Than Fiction performed. The difference here is that Ferrell has had far more duds to his career than Carell, so he has may have a step up on him.”
Box Office Results: $7.1 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] The end of the world just isn’t that profitable it seems. Attempting to tap into a zeitgeist, the film had plenty of advertising and well known leads but didn’t turn out the audiences who saw the trailer and believed it wouldn’t be as funny as it probably was.

To Rome With Love

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Woody Allen’s latest outing will undoubtedly garner buzz after last year’s major Midnight in Paris love, but his recent history isn’t in favor. Even Vicky Cristina Barcelona, which netted Penelope Cruz an Oscar, didn’t get an Original Screenplay nomination, the category with which Allen is most familiar. So we need to wait until critics fully weigh in and if it’s less than ecstatic, lightning will probably not strike twice.”
Oscar Results: Woody’s chances are minimal. He may get some residual love from Midnight in Paris, but I doubt it will materialize beyond a writing nomination if anything.
Box Office Prediction: $20 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Although Midnight in Paris was a fairly sizable hit for Allen, his recent resume hasn’t been as gracefully strong. His best performers tend to range in the $20-25 million range, but usually because of Oscar buzz. So, if this one doesn’t build it, don’t expect it to perform that well.”
Box Office Results: $16.7 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Not your bargain basement Woody performance, but not your top drawer take either. With no Oscar buzz, it was only a matter of counting the receipts to know it wouldn’t quite live up to expectations.

June 29-July 1, 2012

Magic Mike

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Steven Soderbergh’s male stripper drama is a bit out of the norm for him and the trailer makes it feel like a Cameron Crowe film. Either way, this movie just doesn’t seem like the kind of production the Academy takes seriously, but if Channing Tatum is remotely good, there will undoubtedly be calls to recognize him…just not from the majority of Academy members.”
Oscar Results: Box office success aside, little has changed in my estimations of this film’s chances: namely zero.
Box Office Prediction: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “The producers are hoping that the sexy stars of the film will bolster female attendance. The problem is that Channing Tatum’s past prowess at the box office has been bolstered either by a large male demographic or men going with their girlfriends/wives. It will be much harder to persuade those “manly” men into checking out a film about male strippers, especially without any major promise of female nudity. Still, if the film’s good enough and develops good enough word of mouth it could be potent, I just wouldn’t put money on it.”
Box Office Results: $113.7 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] This was a bigger hit than we expected, which just goes to show how lucrative a well-respected female audience can drive a film’s box office. Don’t pander (think all these failure romcoms) and don’t preach. Just entertain.

People Like Us

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “On paper, it might seem like a good bet for sleeper box office success, but from an Academy perspective, director Alex Kurtzman just doesn’t have the history to tell us how well his film might perform.”
Oscar Results: Box office dud combined with mediocre reviews make this a non-starter.
Box Office Prediction: $85 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Chris Pine hasn’t been tested as a romantic lead outside of his bomb This Means War, which got dumped unceremoniously into the earlier part of this year. Still, this film, unlike Magic Mike is much more likely to draw women and their significant others to the theater making it the more likely hit.”
Box Office Results: $12.4 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Speaking of failure romcoms, this is the perfect example of how NOT to make one. Strictly speaking, this wasn’t even a romantic comedy. The two leads were related, so a romance was out of the question. That didn’t stop them from marketing as such and, as such, the film flopped.

Take This Waltz

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Sarah Polley’s first film earned two Oscar nominations. I can see this film doing equally well with nominations for writing and Best Actress Michelle Williams. If it’s better marketed and sold by critics than Away from Her, it might be a strong contender for the Oscars.”
Oscar Results: Indie dramas don’t get much attention with box office numbers and must rely on word of mouth and reviews to make it an Oscar contender. This film had some decent ones, but was mostly forgotten fairly quickly making Sarah Polley unlikely to repeat past success and that includes the often underrated Michelle Williams.
Box Office Prediction: $10 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Pairing director Sarah Polley with indie darling Michelle Williams should mean a sizable indie take at the box office, but don’t expect anything miraculous in terms of numbers.”
Box Office Results: $1.2 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Even being an indie drama, this result isn’t terribly good. That’s largely because of the pedigree associated. The film outperformed Michelle Williams’ similarly positioned Wendy and Lucy, but not by much. And after her Oscar nominated performance in My Week with Marilyn, which netted a cool $14.6 million, and her prior nomination, Blue Valentine, which pulled in $9 million, you would have expected something far bigger. Add that to the fact that Sarah Polley’s Away from Her was celebrated and brought in $4.5 million, and this result seems even more disappointing.

Ted

Box Office Prediction: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “I’m not really sure how to classify this film. Family Guy is popular and those who’ve seen the trailer are amused, but does it have what it takes to be a blockbuster? I’m going on the low end of expectations, but think it could easily top $100 million if audiences really enjoy it.”
Box Office Results: $218.7 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] The little film that I thought would be a decent success, so far exceeded my expectations that it has to be one of the biggest surprise hits for a summer release in some time.

Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Witness Protection

Box Office Prediction: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “It may not seem like much, but in Tyler Perry’s canon, this is a strong performance. While Madea is a far more popular character for him, he has had a few outside hits without her. Still, the dearth of films catering to black audiences in the summer should galvanize a strong opening and a solid take from the box office keeping Perry’s stellar track record going.”
Box Office Results: $65.7 M
Thoughts: [Success] When Tyler Perry does his schtick, the box office responds. When he’s out of his element, it does not. This was right on target and perhaps slightly better than expected.