There are no two bigger months at theaters. While the Summer may provide box office swing, both box office and Oscars dominate the final two months of the year with November likely the biggest of them all. This year, a number of top notch films will compete for audience dollars and critics’ appreciation going into the final weeks of pre-Oscar wrangling. This November features one of the most impressive line-ups Oscar has seen in some time, with many of them strong contenders for one or multiple nominations.

October 4-6, 2013

Gravity

Premise: From IMDb: “A medical engineer and an astronaut work together to survive after an accident leaves them adrift in space.”
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Expectations: Unknown. Sci-Fi hasn’t been doing particularly well this year (or in years past for that matter) with a number of high profile flops and weak performances. This one might buck the trend, but a lot will depend not on stars George Clooney and Sandra Bullock, but on the marketing effort and the response from critics. Reviews are trickling in from its festival run and critics seem to be largely impressed, which could help.
Oscar Prospects: Critics won’t be enough to push this into Oscar contention. Audiences must respond to the film and it must make a strong showing with the precursors. District 9 managed a Best Picture berth over similar odds, so it’s possible.

Runner Runner

Premise: From IMDb: “When a poor college student who cracks an online poker game goes bust, he arranges a face-to-face with the man he thinks cheated him, a sly offshore entrepreneur.”
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Expectations: Decent. The film sports two name actors who have small caches of cachet. While neither has done particularly well opening a film, counter-programming could benefit this film greatly. Critics deriding the film, might spell disaster, but strong or above-average support may make it a hit.
Oscar Prospects: None.

October 11-13, 2013

Captain Phillips

Premise: From IMDb: “The true story of Captain Richard Phillips and the 2009 hijacking by Somali pirates of the US-flagged MV Maersk Alabama, the first American cargo ship to be hijacked in two hundred years.”
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Expectations: Without the Bourne franchise, Paul Greengrass has never opened a movie over $35 million. This time, he has the added benefit of box office draw Tom Hanks. This isn’t your typical Hanks film, so his fans might not flock to the theater, but the harrow real-life nature of the film may bolster its attendance even beyond what I’m currently predicting.
Oscar Prospects: Anytime Greengrass makes a movie, buzz builds. The last time he made one, The Green Zone, that buzz died as soon as it was released. He needs a strong balance of critic notices and audience attention to be a hit. The dramatic nature of the film might be enough, but it will desparately need the help of critics.

Machete Kills

Premise: From IMDb: “The U.S. government recruits Machete to battle his way through Mexico in order to take down an arms dealer who looks to launch a weapon into space.”
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Expectations: Weak. The only segment of the Grindhouse feature that made it to the big screen now has a sequel in spite of its horribly lackluster performance. An uptick in box office is expected, but if the studio really thinks audiences will flock to see this sequel and not wait for it on home video, they may be disappointed.
Oscar Prospects: None.

The Fifth Estate (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “A dramatic thriller based on real events, THE FIFTH ESTATE reveals the quest to expose the deceptions and corruptions of power that turned an Internet upstart into the 21st century’s most fiercely debated organization.”
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Julian Assange isn’t the most popular figure, so great notices from critics will be required for this film to do more than typical limited-release business.
Oscar Prospects: If critics fall in love with the film, it could make some inroads into the Oscar race, but at this point I can only see star Benedic Cumberbatch in the competition and even he’s going to struggle against a high-profile Best Actor slate.

Romeo and Juliet (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “When the star-crossed lovers of two enemy families meet, forbidden love ensues.”
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Expectations: Adaptations of Romeo and Juliet aren’t guaranteed hits, which may explain why the film is getting a limited release to start. They hope to build buzz before releasing wide, but I don’t think it’s going to do much good. Even the much-ballyhooed version by Baz Luhrmann couldn’t manage a $50 million box office total.
Oscar Prospects: If critics like it and the film does well at the box office, a few creative awards might fall in line for the film, but don’t expect it to be a huge contender.

October 18-20, 2013

Carrie

Premise: From IMDb: “A reimagining of the classic horror tale about Carrie White, a shy girl outcast by her peers and sheltered by her deeply religious mother, who unleashes telekinetic terror on her small town after being pushed too far at her senior prom.”
Box Office Prospects: $80 M
Expectations: Good. It’s been three decades since the original film became a horror classic. Remaking such films isn’t always advisable. The derided sequel The Rage: Carrie 2 was a box office flop. Enough time may have elapsed to make this a strong hit. And with no other horror films in release ahead of the Halloween holiday, it’s possible this will be pretty damned big.
Oscar Prospects: The original film earned nominations for Best Actress (Sissy Spacek) and Best Supporting Actress (Piper Laurie), but that film was directed by prominent filmmaker Brian de Palma. This time we have a prominent female filmmaker at the helm and a strong cast that includes Chloe Grace Moretz and Julianne Moore. If Best Supporting Actress is particularly weak this year, Moore could sneak in. However, Moretz won’t make the cut and the film is unlikely to figure in any other categories.

Escape Plan

Premise: From IMDb: “When a structural-security authority finds himself incarcerated in a prison he designed, he has to put his skills to escape and find out who framed him.”
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Expectations: Average. Alone, these two actors have found it difficult to make a buck at the box office. When combined with a number of other actors, they have done much better. This will be the first real test of having two major old action stars together. Will the audience see this as another vainglorious attempt to retain their youthful pocketbooks or will they buy the concept in full?
Oscar Prospects: None.

All Is Lost (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “After a collision with a shipping container at sea, a resourceful sailor finds himself, despite all efforts to the contrary, staring his mortality in the face.”
Box Office Prospects: $10 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Robert Redford hasn’t been a box office draw since the 1970’s. Behind the camera, his films have been flops, but this is the first time he’s headlined a film in quite some time. The film will release limitedly and I have a feeling that’s where it will stay, but Oscar buzz could propel it higher.
Oscar Prospects: J.C. Chandor’s highly anticipated follow-up to Margin Call tries to go the Arbitrage route giving a former box office heavyweight a prominent acting vehicle. The film got great buzz out of Sundance, but following Telluride, talk has diminished a little. When the film releases in full, we’ll see where the truth lies.

12 Years a Slave (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “In the pre-Civil War United States, Solomon Northup, a free black man from upstate New York, is abducted and sold into slavery.”
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Expectations: Good. As an indie entry, I predict strong box office. As a wide release, I’m not so certain. With Lee Daniels’ The Butler already draining historical-epic interest, will this likely more acclaimed film do sufficiently well with audiences?
Oscar Prospects: With its Telluride premiere, this film has vaulted into a high position as an Oscar contender, charging its way towards a number of potential first, including first black director to win Best Director as well as first Best Picture winner with a black actor in the central role (In the Heat of the Night counts as the first with A central role). The film seems to be building steam and may be the film to beat this year in a number of categories.

October 25-27, 2013

The Counselor

Premise: From IMDb: “A lawyer finds himself in over his head when he gets involved in drug trafficking.”
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Ridley Scott has done well at the box office, but his Comarc McCarthy adaptation doesn’t seem like it’s rife for box office appeal. Good word of mouth and decent reviews could change that.
Oscar Prospects: Cormac McCarthy may have generated No Country for Old Men as an Oscar-winning adaptation of one of his novels, but nothing else seems to be sticking. This could buck the trend, but the season’s already chock-full of contenders, so I doubt it will be given much of a thought.

Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa

Premise: From IMDb: “86-year-old Irving Zisman is on a journey across America with the most unlikely companion: his 8 year-old grandson, Billy.”
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Expectations: Good. While the most recent Jackass was huge at the box office, this feature has none of the trademark cast audiences are used to and while seeing an old man punk a bunch of younger folks might work on TV, even Betty White couldn’t turn her similarly-themed series into a hit and she’s 100-times funnier than anyone associated with Jackass. It could still end up doing good business, but it wont’ be quite the hit its predecessor was.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Blue Is the Warmest Color (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “The story of a young lesbian couple’s beginning, middle and possible end.”
Box Office Prospects: $1.5 M
Expectations: Weak. A foreign language gay indie drama seems like it might be the worst type of film to storm the specialty box office; however, the Cannes hit is said to be challenging to watch, but may generate generous word-of-mouth. A hefty total, though, will require strong Oscar consideration.
Oscar Prospects: The Academy doesn’t particularly care for challenging topics. With the influx of voters and a slight change in voting requirements, something more risky might make it through. If it’s an official submission. If not, I don’t see the film entering the race very easily.