There are no two bigger months at theaters. While the Summer may provide box office swing, both box office and Oscars dominate the final two months of the year with November likely the biggest of them all. This year, a number of top notch films will compete for audience dollars and critics’ appreciation going into the final weeks of pre-Oscar wrangling. This November features one of the most impressive line-ups Oscar has seen in some time, with many of them strong contenders for one or multiple nominations.

April 5, 2013

Evil Dead

Premise: From IMDb: “Five friends head to a remote cabin, where the discovery of a Book of the Dead leads them to unwittingly summon up demons living in the nearby woods. The evil presence possesses them until only one is left to fight for survival.”
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Expectations: Above Average. It’s a cult classic these days and regardless of how idiotic the trailer looks, people will line up to pay homage to one of the ’80s horror legends. Will that translate into a Paranormal Activity-type box office juggernaut? Unlikely.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Jurassic Park 3D

Premise: From IMDb: “During a preview tour, a theme park suffers a major power breakdown that allows its cloned dinosaur exhibits to run amok.”
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Expectations: Unknown. Most 3D conversions have been colossal failures, but this was one of the biggest hits of the 1990’s. It has a persistent fanbase and could very well surpass expectations.
Oscar Prospects: Ineligible.

April 12, 2013

42

Premise: From IMDb: “The life story of Jackie Robinson and his history-making signing with the Brooklyn Dodgers under the guidance of team executive Branch Rickey.”
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Expectations: Unknown. It’s a baseball film, which gives it an immediate strike. It’s historically-set, which adds a second. But it’s about one of the most important baseball figures in history and it could end up being a huge hit. With little other competition, it could end up on a long road to a much higher total than I’ve predicted.
Oscar Prospects: It’s releasing far too early in the year to be a likely Oscar contender, but the cast alone suggests it could compete. Above-the-line categories are decent, including one for Best Actor and possibly one in Best Supporting Actor, but critics could easily sink the film’s chances if they aren’t suitably impressed. Below-the-line categories are unlikely unless the film becomes a huge hit with both audiences and critics.

Scary Movie 5

Premise: From IMDb: “A couple begin to experience some unusual activity after bringing their newborn son home from the hospital. With the help of home-surveillance cameras and a team of experts, they learn they’re being stalked by a nefarious demon.”
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Expectations: Above Average. It’s been 7 years since the last film in the franchise was released, which gives it a huge hurdle to clear; however, the franchise has been one of the most consistent of the spoof genre, with no film performing lower than $70 million and two of them topping $100 million. However, because of the lackluster performance of A Haunted House earlier this year, the market for spoofs isn’t as strong as it was when Scary Movie was churning out films in the 1990s. However, the name alone should help it surpass the Wayans version even if the two of them share common elements according to the trailers.
Oscar Prospects: None.

To the Wonder

Premise: From IMDb: “After visiting Mont Saint-Michel, Marina and Neil come to Oklahoma, where problems arise. Marina meets a priest and fellow exile, who is struggling with his vocation, while Neil renews his ties with a childhood friend, Jane.”
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Expectations: Good. As an independent film, the bar for success is set much lower and when it comes to Terrence Malick, a $15 million showing is pretty good (that’s what his last film The Tree of Life made). The question is where this can approach his biggest success, his prior Best Picture nominee The Thin Red Line which took $36 million 15 years ago. I doubt it will reach that point even in 2013 dollars, but a lot depends on whether the weak buzz for the film that came out of the festival circuit last year is to be believed. Brad Pitt couldn’t bring Tree of Life to a mass audience, so I doubt Ben Affleck will have much luck either.
Oscar Prospects: Malick has a lot of fans in the Academy as evidenced by the peformance of The Tree of Life at the Oscars. The film had faded through the precursor season in spite of its several prizes and by the time the Oscar nominations came out, no one was even certain it would make the expanded field. It did. So, look for this one to build decent buzz through awards season. Of course, The New World proves the Academy doesn’t always love Malick. Yet, that film did business on par with Tree of Life, so it’s a better sign of box office potential than Oscar potential.

April 19, 2013

Oblivion

Premise: From IMDb: “A court martial sends a veteran soldier to a distant planet, where he has to destroy the remains of an alien race. The arrival of an unexpected traveler causes him to question what he knows about the planet, his mission, and himself.”
Box Office Prospects: $300 M
Expectations: Excellent. Tom Cruise may not be able to turn every turd into a hit, but when he tackles action films, you can bank on him to outperform expectations. The futuristic sci-fi elements of Oblivion might temper its performance potential, but with Morgan Freeman in support, the film should do terrific business.
Oscar Prospects: It will be a big player in the Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Visual Effects categories, but branching into places like Production Design will be a huge challenge for this kind of genre.

April 26, 2013

The Big Wedding

Premise: From IMDb: “A long-divorced couple fakes being married as their family unites for a wedding.”
Box Office Prospects: $110 M
Expectations: Good. If the cast alone means anything, this should do exceedingly well at the box office. Whether it will be a smash hit or a decent $100-million-plusser depends on just how bad it is. The tidbits I’ve seen have suggested it isn’t so great, but that doesn’t always mean anything.
Oscar Prospects: Genre pictures like this seldom make plays for Oscar consideration. I doubt this one will buck that “tradition.”

Pain and Gain

Premise: From IMDb: “A trio of bodybuilders in Florida get caught up in an extortion ring and a kidnapping scheme that goes terribly wrong.”
Box Office Prospects: $130 M
Expectations: Good. A more likely hit than The Big Wedding, Pain and Gain has the name Michael Bay behind it plus the box offie draw of Mark Wahlberg and Dwayne Johnson. Combined, I think this could help the film become a very big hit. Of course, it’s been a long time since Bay did anything outside of the Transformers universe, so its prospects aren’t certain.
Oscar Prospects: Without the explosions and visual effects that typically accompany a Michael Bay film, I’m not sure how this one will do. Sound Mixing and Sound Editing are probably its only chances.