March 1-3, 2013

21 and Over

Box Office Prediction: $55 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Looking back at a film like Project X, which covers the same type of territory as this film, it’s not hard to see why it could do quite well. Although Project X wasn’t a blockbuster, it turned a tidy profit from teen and college-age audiences, which is precisely where this film’s box office potential comes from.”
Box Office Results: $25.7 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Crushed expectations as another teen-targeted film fails to live up to expectations.

Jack the Giant Slayer

Box Office Prediction: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “The advertising has made this film look like an adventure or a comedy, but seldom a blend of both. Knowing the director, it will probably be better than it looks, but the trailers and other advertising have been poorly framed and make this look like a throw-away film. I could see this failing on a John Carter level, but a surprise hit could also be possible.”
Box Office Results: $65.2 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Even though many are calling this total disappointing, all things considered it was right on target.

The Last Exorcism Part II

Box Office Prediction: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Horror always opens strong and then fades fast. I see the same trajectory for this ill-titled sequel, which should perform about on par with its predecessors. Supernatural horror films don’t alway do well, but there’s a big market out there for possession dramas, so this should perform better than other recent horror offerings.”
Box Office Results: $15.2 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Apparently, since the last film wasn’t actually the last one, audiences weren’t excited enough to make this a franchise.

Phantom

Box Office Prediction: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “The advertising for this film has been virtually non-existent. And while Ed Harris is a solid actor, David Duchovny’s uneven, especially on the big screen. Neither has the ability to draw audiences to the theater and placed against other films that will likely draw its potential demographic, this one should be one of the early failures of the month.”
Box Office Results: $1.0 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Duchovny’s string of box office bombs continues as the lack of advertising doomed this one to failure.

A Place at the Table (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “With Food, Inc. having received an Oscar nomination, I can see this one doing the same, but a lot of been there-done that will creep into the campaign and unless critics embrace it the way they did Food, Table won’t make the final cut.”
Oscar Results: Audiences didn’t care, so I’m guessing the Academy won’t either.
Box Office Prediction: $3 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Although not a true sequel to the documentary Food, Inc., the film follows the natural progression of that film and could easily appeal to the same demographic that gave it a strong-for-its-genre tally last time out.”
Box Office Results: $231.4 K
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] For a documentary, this total isn’t awful, but with the pedigree behind it, it should have done much better.

Stoker (Limited)

Box Office Prediction: $55 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “A Victorian-styled horror thriller could be nice counter-programming to the unlikely-to-please-critics The Last Exorcism Part II. With the likes of Mia Wasikowska, Nicole Kidman and Matthew Goode, it could be a surprise hit.”
Box Office Results: $1.7 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] With it being released limitedly and never getting a wider push, it’s no surprise the film failed to live up to expectations.

March 8-10, 2013

Dead Man Down

Box Office Prediction: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Colin Farrell hasn’t been igniting the box office recently and with poor advertising to date, the film may not do incredibly well at the box office, but surprises sometimes happen and while it might not appeal to everyone, I can see a small, but dedicated group of filmgoers checking it out.”
Box Office Results: $10.9 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Not even the group of people who make these niche dramas fly at the box office turned out, further solidifying Farrell’s lack of box office brand.

Oz the Great and Powerful

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “While it’s not going to figure in any of the major category, Oz has a colorful design that could appeal to a number of creative branches including Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Visual Effects. Whether it makes it through the year with the same chances depends a lot on what other fantasy tales come out between now and then.”
Oscar Results: That boffo box office will keep it in the conversation and while there have been plenty of fantastical settings that could push it from the running, this remains the most colorful and visceral of productions. I could still see Production Design, Costume Design and maybe Makeup and Hairstyling, but Visual Effects is far too competitive.
Box Office Prediction: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “While it is expected to be somewhat childlike, the trailers make the film look utterly childish. Still, audiences still seem to be excited about the film and Sam Raimi is nothing if not a crowd-pleasing director. It should do excellent business, but probably not as much as it probably could if it’s trailer made it look less predictable.”
Box Office Results: $234.9 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] Apparently, the trailer wasn’t a factor in the film’s success. It did phenomenal business in spite of lackluster reviews.

March 15-17, 2013

The Call

Box Office Prediction: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “I can’t remember the last time Halle Berry headlined a hit. Nor can I remember the last time she had a trailer that looked at least mildly interesting. With a stronger advertising push, the film could do quite well with fans of the thriller, but may have trouble crossing over to broader audiences.”
Box Office Results: $51.2 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Halle Berry can heave a sigh of relief. While this total isn’t quite to the level I would have expected, it wasn’t the bomb that several other films this year have been.

The Incredible Burt Wonderstone

Box Office Prediction: $105 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Another film that, against my better judgments, doesn’t look half bad. Having Steve Carell and Jim Carrey on the ticket won’t hurt the film’s bottom line, but strong word of mouth will be essential to the film’s ultimate dominance or lack thereof.”
Box Office Results: $22.5 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] The case in point I referenced in my thoughts on The Call. Big names and fancy premise didn’t make this magic-oriented comedy a success.

From Up on Poppy Hill (Limited)

Box Office Prediction: $20 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “I love Hayao Miyazaki, but unless he’s directing, I’m not really interested. However, I seem to be alone and everything Studio Ghibli becomes a solid, indie hit in the United States. This one looks to be a more traditional Miyazaki style narrative (the trailer doesn’t suggest the IMDb premise at all), so it should do decent business with the same crowd that enabled The Secret World of Arrietty to do the same.”
Box Office Results: $1.0 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Even the Miyazaki brand should have resulted in a higher total than this.

Ginger & Rosa (Limited)

Box Office Prediction: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Other than curious indie crowds, I can’t see much potential in this film. The acting looks good and the buzz out of the festivals was strong, but the film isn’t launching in the best window and neither of its leads are exactly box office stars, so I’m guarded on my expectations.”
Box Office Results: $1.0 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] What can you expect from a film that got an Oscar-qualifying run in 2012 and then disappeared off the radara. No one seems to understand how to market these kinds of films.

March 22-24, 2013

Admission

Box Office Prediction: $85 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Tina Fey. Paul Rudd. What’s not to like? If there is justice, this becomes a bigger hit than Identity Thief. However, I’m not going to hold my breath. Neither Fey nor Rudd have really proven themselves as audience magnets, but the genuinely funny trailer and recent ballyhooed success of her co-hosting the Golden Globes, this could be a success.”
Box Office Results: $18.0 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] While I should say poor Paul Rudd, he’s not had much luck in recent years. However, it’s Tina Fey who should have brought more to the film in terms of audience.

The Croods

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “It’s DreamWorks, so the chances of an Oscar nomination are pretty strong; however, early releases like this seldom figure in the Best Animated Feature race. Mix that with the somewhat lackluster trailers so far seen and I don’t think it will be one of the year’s five nominees.”
Oscar Results: Critics weren’t enamored with it, but DreamWorks’ other major release, Turbo hasn’t done well at the box office suggesting that DreamWorks may have ittle choice but to flog this box office success for this year’s Oscars, or otherwise be left out.
Box Office Prediction: $205 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “With no comparable competition nearby, The Croods should have little trouble becoming the number one film of the year released to date. The movie doesn’t look so great to me, but that won’t stop hungry family audiences from checking it out”
Box Office Results: $186.4 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Success] Not exactly where I expected it to land, this total is nonetheless impressive given the frequent bombs the early year has been providing.

Olympus Has Fallen

Box Office Prediction: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “I begin to wonder if all of these Gerard Butler films were greenlighted before his string of box office flops. I don’t know that this one is going to be a flop since it has strong support from actors like Aaron Eckhart, Angela Bassett and Morgan Freeman and the premise seems to be more fitting to a broad spectrum audience than Butler’s prior films.”
Box Office Results: $98.9 M
Thoughts: [Success] Being first out of the gate is beneficial. Gerard Butler finally has a hit and he can probably thank Morgan Freeman’s presence for part of that.

The Sapphires (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “It was a hit at various festivals, but may be seen as too similar to Dreamgirls to go very far with Oscar. But a strong push by critics might give it some forward momentum.”
Oscar Results: Critics did support the film, but it’s not had very much press in recent months. Some articles have been appearing here and there recently, so it could still come out swining, but its chances continue to dwindle.
Box Office Prediction: $2 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “For a buzzed-about indie period musical drama, it’s possible it could do better than I expect. However, it doesn’t have the appeal that something like Pitch Perfect did, so a break-out hit isn’t likely.”
Box Office Results: $2.5 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Minor Success] A limited release, coupled with strong reviews, made the film something of a success on the indie scene even if it never translated to a wide-release or platform-release push.

March 29-31, 2013

G.I. Joe: Retaliation

Box Office Prediction: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “After being pushed back into 2013, the “long-awaited” sequel to the modest-performing G.I. Joe adds the purpoted Sequel Savior Dwayne Johnson into the mix. Whether or not fans of the original cartoon property were impressed with the prior film will determine whether this one does good business. The potential is there, but I’m waffling on whether it will succeed or flop. I lean towards flop, but am predicting towards success.”
Box Office Results: $122.5 M
Thoughts: [Success] Proof that even shitty predecessors can’t stop fans from forking over hard-earned money a second time. Not only was it not a flop, critics didn’t revile it, which likely gave it some measure of boost among recalcitrant fans.

The Host

Box Office Prediction: $250 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Another hot, young adult novel being adapted to the big screen should do the kind of business that made both Twilight and The Hunger Games hits. And while Saoirse Ronan is wonderful actress, the source material has limitations and, unlike The Hunger Games, The Host doesn’t have the same level of anticipatory buzz leading in, though a strong total is still likely from those suffering from Twilight Withdrawal.”
Box Office Results: $26.6 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] The year’s second big-budget, pro-tween flop. While Beautiful Creatures was in the same genre, this was written by the same author as Twilight, meaning it should have done quite a bit better. But her brand is nothing without Twilight and likely won’t ever be aythign more.

Tyler Perry’s Temptation

Box Office Prediction: $70 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Tyler Perry always has the potential of cross-over appeal and while his core audience will undoubtedly turn out for this one, the big question is whether other audiences will join the queues. Admittedly, this is the best looking Perry film trailer I’ve seen to date and one of the few I’ve contemplated checking out eventually. If that kind of opinion is pervasive, it could do better than expected.”
Box Office Results: $51.9 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Tyler Perry continues to work well a tthe box office without igniting passions beyond his prototypical audience. This performance is right on par with his other non-Madea outings, so it can’t be considered a flop, but really isn’t much of a success either.

The Place Beyond the Pines (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Derek Cianfrance helped Michelle Williams score an Oscar nomination for Blue Valentine, but she was the only one who made the Oscar ballot even though co-star Ryan Gosling should have. This is his second pairing with the wunderkind director and could become a small Oscar contender. However, the early release date and the mediocre trailer may be indicative of the film’s quality, which would likely kill its Oscar chances, especially beyond a nomination for Gosling who could escape the criticism unscathed.”
Oscar Results: The film may have peaked too early. While critics were largely positive and the box office was above expectations, the film just hasn’t been holding onto the chatter as well as it needs to for a film released in March.
Box Office Prediction: $10 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “The question will be whether or not critics embrace the film. Its festival run didn’t generate can’t-miss-it buzz, but critics have been universally positive about the film. Perhaps the movie is better than the trailer makes it look, but either way it should approach or surpass Blue Valentine total with that level of support.”
Box Office Results: $21.4 M
Thoughts: [Success] Audiences gave the film a chance, even on the indie marketplace generating a better-than-expected box office tally.