There are no two bigger months at theaters. While the Summer may provide box office swing, both box office and Oscars dominate the final two months of the year with November likely the biggest of them all. This year, a number of top notch films will compete for audience dollars and critics’ appreciation going into the final weeks of pre-Oscar wrangling. This November features one of the most impressive line-ups Oscar has seen in some time, with many of them strong contenders for one or multiple nominations.

August 2, 2013

2 Guns

Premise: From IMDb: “A DEA agent and an undercover Naval Intelligence officer who have been tasked with investigating one another find they have been set up by the mob — the very organization the two men believe they have been stealing money from.”
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Expectations: Unknown. The two stars have been box office draws in the past, but the concept isn’t terribly fresh or interesting which could cause it to fall on the dud side. And releasing in August is never promising.
Oscar Prospects: None.

The Smurfs 2

Premise: From IMDb: “The Smurfs team up with their human friends to rescue Smurfette, who has been kidnapped by Gargamel since she knows a secret spell that can turn the evil sorcerer’s newest creation – creatures called the Naughties – into real Smurfs.”
Box Office Prospects: $120 M
Expectations: Solid. The first film was a surprise hit and it’s likely the follow-up will do decent business. However, partly-animated films are still a tough sell and a sequel will be equally hard-pressed to match its predecessor’s success. I’m leaning towards decent, but not spectacular sub-original numbers, but it could do quite a bit better than that.
Oscar Prospects: None.

August 9, 2013

Elysium

Premise: From IMDb: “Set in the year 2154, where the very wealthy live on a man-made space station while the rest of the population resides on a ruined Earth, a man takes on a mission that could bring equality to the polarized worlds.”
Box Office Prospects: $140 M
Expectations: Solid. This may be one of the most anticipated titles in June. With a headliner like Matt Damon and reasonably popular Jodie Foster on board, this sci-fi feature could easily surpass the total of its director’s prior film District 9.
Oscar Prospects: A lot depends on how this compares to director Neill Blomkamp’s directorial debut, which earned a well deserved Best Picture nomination. If the critics like the film as well or better, it could be a decent contender bringing both Matt Damon and Jodie Foster back to the Oscars, but it would have to be a hugely well regarded film for that to happen. Regardless, I’m guessing it will be a key player in the creative and tech categories.

Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters

Premise: From IMDb: “In order to restore their dying safe haven, the son of Poseidon and his friends embark on a quest to the Sea of Monsters to find the mythical Golden Fleece and to stop an ancient evil from rising.”
Box Office Prospects: $70 M
Expectations: Unknown. The first film was a modest hit making about $88 million in the U.S. and another $137 million overseas. It’s surprising with those weaker numbers that the film was greenlit for a sequel when it did only slightly better numbers than The Golden Compass. Critics weren’t in love with the film either, but it must have done very well on home video to encourage a sequel. Releasing against a number of other high profile films isn’t a good thing, but it could surprise again, though I’m thinking even my prediction will be a bit high.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Planes

Premise: From IMDb: “Dusty is a cropdusting plane who dreams of competing in a famous aerial race. The problem? He is hopelessly afraid of heights. With the support of his mentor Skipper and a host of new friends, Dusty sets off to make his dreams come true.”
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Expectations: Solid. I’m guessing that Disney is expectin Cars-like numbers from this marketing-demanded sequel. Yet, planes aren’t as appealing to youngsters as cars are and I’m guessing the August release shows that Disney isn’t particularly certain their film will do great business. I’m estimating a number quite a bit under Cars 2, which was just over $50 million under the original. Curiosity will bring some auds to the theater, but if it isn’t better than Cars 2, then Disney may have to say goodbye to their cash cow.
Oscar Prospects: If critics reject the film, Disney has other films to fall back on, but it could still be a long-shot player for an Oscar nomination for Best Animated Feature, though I highly doubt it.

We’re the Millers

Premise: From IMDb: “A veteran pot dealer creates a fake family as part of his plan to move a huge shipment of weed into the U.S. from Mexico.”
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Expectations: Poor. This film has disaster written all over it. Advertising has thus far been minimal and neither Jason Sudeikis or Jennifer Aniston have had much success selling films on their own names. I’m guessing it’s a box office dud, especially when released agains three other film that have precedents to support strong business.
Oscar Prospects: None.

August 16, 2013

The Butler

Premise: From IMDb: “A look at the life of Cecil Gaines who served eight presidents as the White House’s head butler from 1952 to 1986, and had a unique front-row seat as political and racial history was made.”
Box Office Prospects: $120 M
Expectations: Unknown. Even Tyler Perry can’t guarantee good turnout for the core demographic for this type of film. However, this is being flogged heavily by The Weinstein Company who will demand it become a Summer sleeper hit. And since it’s also going to be an Oscar contender whether it’s any good or not, I’d say it does decent busines probably failing to meet popular novel-turned-movie The Help-type numbers, but still doing reasonably well.
Oscar Prospects: This is The Weinstein Company tentpole for the year. They will play up the race-relations elements almost to the point of nausea and with added Oscar-pushing power house Oprah Winfrey starring even if the film isn’t any good, it will still likely cart off a boatload of nominations and like Crash, it might even parlay that into an undeserved win. This whole point is moot if it’s actually a good film, which will make it the early frontrunner without much effort.

Jobs

Premise: From IMDb: “The story of Steve Jobs’ ascension from college dropout into one of the most revered creative entrepreneurs of the 20th century.”
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Expectations: Poor. Is anyone really interested in a movie about Steve Jobs. This is the kind of project that should likely have found a home on basic cable, not the big screen. Apple may be a highly regarded tech product, but Jobs’ influence can only take things so far. Since it has already been postpond once and now finds itself residing in the doldrums of August, I’d say it’s a stinker and will be treated by filmgoers as such.
Oscar Prospects: Before it got pushed back, there was some light chatter of a nomination for Ashton Kutcher. Ignore that conversation and file this one as a no-go…unless it’s actually good. That will change everything. But I wouldn’t hold my breath.

Kick-Ass 2

Premise: From IMDb: “The costumed high-school hero Kick-Ass joins with a group of normal citizens who have been inspired to fight crime in costume. Meanwhile, the Red Mist plots an act of revenge that will affect everyone Kick-Ass knows.”
Box Office Prospects: $55 M
Expectations: Weak. Its predecessor made a mere $48 million three years ago. Apparently it has a huge fan following or there wouldn’t even be a sequel. Ignore all the faked flack the film is getting from supporting actor Jim Carrey. His disingenuous railing against the film’s violence (he signed on to appear in a sequel for a film recognized for its brutal and visual violence) is merely meant to flog support from the public, but while I think it may do slightly better than its predecessor, I don’t expect much more. It could even end up a big failure.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Paranoia

Premise: From IMDb: “An entry-level employee at a powerful corporation finds himself occupying a corner office, but at a dangerous price: he must spy on his boss’s old mentor to secure for him a multi-billion dollar advantage.”
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Expectations: Solid. It has a superb cast, but is little more than a standard thriller. That hasn’t stopped similar films from becoming a success, especially with the likes of Harrison Ford and Gary Oldman in tow; however, it just looks predictable and without suspense, a thriller loses much of its appeal.
Oscar Prospects: None.

August 23, 2013

The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones

Premise: From IMDb: “When her mom is attacked and taken from their home in New York City by a demon, a seemingly ordinary teenage girl, Clary Fray, finds out truths about her past and bloodline on her quest to get her back, that changes her entire life.”
Box Office Prospects: $70 M
Expectations: Unknown. Obviously, it’s expected that this will become the new Twilight or The Hunger Games, but is the book series on which the film is based as popular as those other two films? Beautiful Creatures didn’t become a new tween powerhouse and I’m not sure this one will either.
Oscar Prospects: None.

The World’s End

Premise: From IMDb: “Five friends who reunite in an attempt to top their epic pub crawl from 20 years earlier unwittingly become humankind’s only hope for survival.”
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Expectations: Weak. Shaun of the Dead, Hot Fuzz and Paul remain popular with a very narrow niche of the public who will turn out, but not in droves for this film. And with another end-of-the-world comedy already in release, I don’t expect this one to surprise.
Oscar Prospects: None.

You’re Next

Premise: From IMDb: “When the Davison family comes under attack during their wedding anniversary getaway, the gang of mysterious killers soon learns that one of victims harbors a secret talent for fighting back.”
Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Expectations: Unknown. The plot is a bit confused and the marketing has been either non-existent or inconclusive leading me to suspect that this one will come and go and no one will blink. It doesn’t fit into any well recognized subgenres, so I don’t know quite how to categorize it and if I can’t, I imagine others won’t be able to either.
Oscar Prospects: None.

August 30, 2013

Closed Circuit

Premise: From IMDb: “Martin and Claudia are lawyers — and ex-lovers — who find themselves put at risk after they join the defense team for an international terrorist’s trial.”
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Expectations: Unknown. Eric Bana and Rebecca Hall aren’t well known as box office magnets and the premise is unspectacular. Pair this with minimal advertising and a month filled with meek holdover potential and I doubt this one gets past its fellow films on release day.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Getaway

Premise: From IMDb: “Brent Magna must get behind the wheel and follow the orders of a mysterious man to save his kidnapped wife.”
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Expectations: Unknown. With all the other films releasing this month, it’s hard to categorize this one. It could be a light sleeper or it could be a missed opportunity. Action films and thrillers are abundant, so genre confusion and disinterest won’t help it get very far.
Oscar Prospects: None.

One Direction: This Is Us

Premise: From IMDb: “Niall, Zayn, Liam, Harry and Louis’ meteoric rise to fame, from their humble hometown beginnings and competing on the X-Factor, to conquering the world and performing at London’s famed O2 Arena.”
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Expectations: Weak. Katy Perry is one of the biggest names in music and her concert film barely managed to pass $25 million. The Jonas Brothers made less. Hannah Montana who was incredibly popular and Justin Bieber similarly had strong runs, but One Direction ain’t those two artists. I see it doing better than Katy Perry, but not by much.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Satanic (a.k.a. Random)

Premise: From IMDb: “When a college girl who is alone on campus over the Thanksgiving break is targeted by a group of outcasts, she must conquer her deepest fears to outwit them and fight back”
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Expectations: Weak. It took a great deal of effort just to find information about this film to do this profile. That’s not a positive sign with so little time left to build up interest in seeing the film.
Oscar Prospects: None.