Below is a wrap-up of the predictions I made several months ago, an exploration of what succeeded and what failed, and how I observe things to have gone.

March 3, 2023

Creed III

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still none.
Box Office Prospects: $120 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. This series has been a strong box office performer as it’s the only thing out there like it. That shouldn’t change for the third entry.”
Box Office Results: $156.2 M
Thoughts: [Success] Like the original Rocky films, the law of diminishing returns eventually takes down the series, but for now, it remains a solid play-maker.

March 10, 2023

65

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. It could contend in Best Visual Effects, but 9 months is too long to maintain a chance.”
Oscar Results: Now none. The film’s box office flop has likely doomed its chances at Oscar nominations for Sound and Visual Effects.
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Adam Driver isn’t a proven box office draw. He’s familiar to Star Wars fans, but will this prehistoric romp do much business without the Jurassic Park name? I am not optimistic.”
Box Office Results: $32.1 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] This futuristic prehistoric concept didn’t resonate well with audiences.

Champions

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still none.
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. While Bobby Farrelly can make movies that become hits, he’s not a certifiable box office leader, so don’t expect much from this feel-good comedy.”
Box Office Results: $16.3 M
Thoughts: [Flop] The trailer’s corniness likely didn’t help this one with audiences, though it did better on average than 65 did.

Scream VI

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still none.
Box Office Prospects: $70 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. This franchise can coast a bit because it’s got built in popularity, but it’s never quite reached the zenith the original three films did. Switching it up to New York isn’t going to improve much.”
Box Office Results: $108.2 M
Thoughts: [Success] While it’s not pulling in the series’ best numbers, it’s doing much better than the latter editions with the original cast, so it’s onto something.

March 17, 2023

Inside

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still none.
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. While it might have a chance at bringing in some horror fans who like gross-out features, but that’s not a terribly large group of people, so I cannot imagine this one doing that well.”
Box Office Results: $0.897 M
Thoughts: [Flop] A one-man show doesn’t have a lot of appeal even when it stars one of our greatest living actors.

Shazam! Fury of the Gods

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still none.
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. The film follows the successful pandemic-era release of the original. It’s possible the film will do even better than that prior entry simply because there’s not a lot of stiff competition in cinemas right now.”
Box Office Results: $57.6 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] The first film was a gem of a find, but this one couldn’t parlay the original’s numbers into continued success.

March 24, 2023

John Wick: Chapter 4

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still none.
Box Office Prospects: $200 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. This series is drawing more and more adherents every release and has turned into a bona fide major franchise. Look for it to do well enough to possibly be the first $200 million grosser of 2023.”
Box Office Results: $187.1 M
Thoughts: [Success] This series doesn’t seem to be slowing down in the slightest with stellar numbers.

March 31, 2023

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still none.
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The first attempt at a D&D movie was a major flop, taking in just over $15 million and that was before it became as popular as it is now. That said, I can’t imagine the film’s going to draw too many non-D&D fans and younger ones might not find the concept that thrilling in this format.”
Box Office Results: $93.3 M
Thoughts: [Success] The last attempt to adapt the D&D world onto the big screen was a huge flop. This was anything but a flop, though its numbers weren’t quite as impressive as they could have been.

A Good Person (Expanding)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still none.
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. It has a promising cast, Florence Pugh and Morgan Freeman, but Zach Braff’s films have yet to be box office musclemen. Further, it’s starting with a modest platform release to develop good word of mouth, but that might not be enough.”
Box Office Results: $2.2 M
Thoughts: [Flop] A strong cast can’t sell a film with mediocre reviews.