FOR AN OSCAR MORNING TRACKING SHEET, CLICK HERE. My predictions are in BOLD.

After last year’s switch-up of the nominations announcement, we return to something akin to the prior two years’ announcements. All categories will be announced, once again in separate blocks. This time, they are announcing most of the categories regular audiences aren’t as concerned with and then putting the rest in the second, live broadcast thereafter. Yet, they are continuing with some of the elements from last year, namely the first group will have pre-taped category introductions. The second group of announcements, however, will be handled like they had traditionally been: a live presentation. Presenters have not yet been announced, nor is it certain they will be at all this year.

The category breakdown will be as such: Group 1 is Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Production Design, Animated Short Film, Live Action Short Film, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and Visual Effects. Group 2 is Actor in a Leading Role, Actor in a Supporting Role, Actress in a Leading Role, Actress in a Supporting Role, Animated Feature Film, Directing, Documentary Feature, Documentary Short Subject, Foreign Language Film, Original Song, Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, and Original Screenplay. Other than Best Picture being presented last, they have not announced a category order, so the information below will be ordered as I see fit, largely tackling categories that won’t impact others first, then dig into the other categories.

Below, embedded in this article, is a video where you can watch the announcemens streamed live starting at 5:22am PT / 7:22am CT / 8:22am ET for Group 1 and 5:38:30am PT / 7:38:30am CT / 8:22:30am ET for Group 2.

Every year, I put together an article that goes through the order of announcement and gives you not only an idea of what to expect, but how it might affect later announcements or have been affected by earlier ones. The attached PDF features all of the films and individuals I’ve labeled as Hopefuls so that you can print it out and follow along as the announcements are made (at least as best you can).

With my personal opinions about the race highlighted in today’s other final nominations predictions post, I’m going to try and keep things brief. However, we all know how that usually turns out.

Without knowing how they will make the announcements and in what order, the below may be a bit arbitrary. I’m breaking this into sections based on the two groups of categories announed with the second half where I will try to employ the traditional order of the remaining categories that existed before the Academy’s changes in the past three years.

At the end of each category, there’s a short, alphabetized list in the order the nominations would be announced so you can quickly look over the order in a small space. Traditionally, the nominations had been announced in alphabetical order by film name in all except the acting categories, which will be ordered by last name.

Group 1

Best Live Action Short Film

This category is often hard to predict, so I’ll let the order speak for itself.

DeKalb, Eleven, Facing Mecca, Icebox, Lost Face, Nephew Emmett, Rise…Star, Silent Child, Watu Wote, Witnesses

Best Animated Short Film

This category is often hard to predict, so I’ll let the order speak for itself.

Cradle, Basketball, Fox and Whale, Garden Party, In a Heartbeat, Life Smartphone, Lost Property, Lou, Negative, Revolting

Best Original Score

The first title on the list should be Blade Runner, but if it isn’t, the film is likely to take a huge hit at the Oscars this year with far fewer nominations than expected as this is one of its most likely. After that, we’ll see if Coco is a competitor or if Darkest Hour is up next. If it’s neither and Dunkirk is second, look for one John Williams nomination, possibly two if it’s the first listed. After Dunkirk should be Phantom Thread. Then, either Shape of Water is next, and last, or The Post is. If Post is third, then Shape will be followed either by Star Wars or Three Billboards.

Beauty/Beast, Blade Runner, Cars 3, Coco, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, Get Out, Mudbound, Murder/Orient, Phantom Thread, Post, Shape of Water, Star Wars, Three Billboards, Victoria, War/Planet/Apes

Best Film Editing

Topping off the list should be Baby Driver followed by Blade Runner. If, instead, Dunkirk is next, then we’re looking at an additional film on the list, possibly I, Tonya or Three Billboards. Third could be Get Out or I, Tonya, then either we get one of the other Best Picture contenders in the list, Lady Bird or The Post, or we drop straight to Shape of Water. If Shape is last, there’s no Three Billboards. If it’s fourth, then Three Billboards is last and if it’s third, then Star Wars will proceed Billboards.

Baby Driver, Blade Runner, Call Me by, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, Get Out, I Tonya, Lady Bird, Molly’s Game, Mudbound, Phantom Thread, Post, Shape of Water, Star Wars, Three Billboards

Best Cinematography

First on the list had better be Blade Runner 2049 or there will be an amazing uproar. That should be followed by either Darkest Hour or Dunkirk. If it’s Call Me by Your Name, then third will be Dunkirk. If it’s those four films and there’s only one spot left, Shape of Water will get it, but if Dunkirk is third, the fourth title will be either be the celebration of the day or it will be a disastrous moment. That’s when the female Rachel Morrison is hoped to become the first woman nominated in Best Cinematography, the only category remaining that has never seen a woman on the list. Mudbound had best be fourth because if Dunkirk is, there’s no room for it and Shape of Water will claim the final spot. It’s also possible fourth goes to The Post, but there would be a lot of outrage in that instance, unless Mudbound was also nominated and was announced third.

Blade Runner, Call Me by, Darkest Hour, Downsizing, Dunkirk, Lost City, mother!, Mudbound, Post, Shape of Water, Wonderstruck

Best Production Design

there’s a lot of potential for upsets here, so leading the list should be Beauty and the Beast followed by any number of options prior to The Shape of Water, which will either be last, or fourth and a surprise inclusion would fill out the list. After Beauty, it’s likely Blade Runner in second, followed by Darkest Hour and Dunkirk or some other stuff like Greatest Showman, Murder on the Orient Express, or The Post. Only two titles could really follow Shape and not be shocking: Star Wars and Victoria & Abdul, but that’s only if Shape isn’t last.

Alien, Beauty/Beast, Beguiled, Blade Runner, Darkest Hour, Downsizing, Dunkirk, Film Stars/Liverpool, Greatest Showman, Guardians, Logan, Murder/Express, Phantom Thread, Post, Quiet, Shape of Water, Star Wars, Valerian, Victoria, War/Planet/Apes, Wonder Woman, Wonderstruck

Best Costume Design

The biggest shock is if Beauty and the Beast isn’t first. That should be followed either by one of the less expected titles or The Greatest Showman. If Showman is second, it will either follow to I, Tonya or Murder on the Orient Express followed by Phantom Thread. Of course, if that film is third, the likely remaining options are Shape of Water and one of either Victoria & Abdul or Wonder Woman.

Beauty/Beast, Beguiled, Blade Runner, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, Greatest Showman, I Tonya, Murder/Orient, Phantom Thread, Quiet, Shape of Water, Star Wars, Thor, Valerian, Victoria, Wonder Woman, Wonderstruck

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Seven films to fill three spots. The first film will either be the expected groaner (Bright) or the expected Darkest Hour. If Darkest is first, then either Guardians is second or I, Tonya is. And then it’s either I, Tonya or Wonder to finish out the list if Guardians is the choice.

Bright, Darkest Hour, Ghost/Shell, Guardians, I Tonya, Victoria, Wonder

Best Sound Mixing

There are a lot of potential surprises in store largely because this is one of the categories few people are really good at predicting. Baby Driver has emerged as a likely list leader to be followed by Blade Runner or Dunkirk. If it’s the former, then Dunkirk surely follows. If it’s the latter, then something surprising is about to arrive and it could be Wonder Woman in the fifth slot as it’s most likely that Dunkirk is followed by Shape of Water and then Star Wars, which either round out the list or precede the big finale.

Alien, Baby Driver, Beauty/Beast, Blade Runner, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, Greatest Showman, Guardians, Justice, Logan, Shape of Water, Star Wars, Transformers, Valerian, War/Planet/Apes, Wonder Woman

Best Sound Editing

Another situation where Baby Driver should be list leader, then it’s either Blade Runner or Dunkirk. If Dunkirk is third, then only Shape of Water and Star Wars are likely to follow. If it’s second, then once again Wonder Woman is likely to round out the list.

Alien, Baby Driver, Blade Runner, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, Guardians, Justice, Only/Brave, Shape of Water, Star Wars, Transformers, Valerian, War/Planet/Apes, Wonder Woman

Best Visual Effects

There are only ten titles that can appear here, so it should be easy to catch which films are included and which aren’t. Blade Runner should be first unless Alien is stronger than expected. That will be followed by Dunkirk and then the surprises could begin. Before Shape of Water, Guardians, Kong: Skull Island, and Okja could each surprise, but expectations should put Shape of Water third, followed by Star Wars and finally Planet of the Apes. If Wars is third, then a surprise Valerian is possible, but if Shape of Water is fourth, it’s Planet of the Apes taking up the end.

Alien, Blade Runner, Dunkirk, Guardians, Kong, Okja, Shape of Water, Star Wars, Valerian, War/Planet/Apes

Group 2

Best Documentary Short Subject

This category is often hard to predict, so I’ll let the order speak for itself.

116 Cameras, Alone, Edith+Eddie, Heaven…405, Heroin(e), Kayayo, Knife Skills, Ram Dass, Ten Meter, Traffic Stop

Best Documentary Feature

Most of the nominees should be announced pretty quickly with Jane conceivably last. If it ends up earlier in the announcement, then a lot of productions we thought would be recognized won’t be and a lot we didn’t expect will.

Abacus
Coral, City of Ghosts, Ex Libris, Faces Places, Human Flow, Icarus, Inconvenient Sequel, Jane, LA 92, Last Men/Aleppo, One of Us, Long Strange, Strong Island, Unrest

Best Original Song

There are tons of potential nominees, so it’s uncertain what will truly come up first, but expectations should be “Evermore” first on the list. Next up could be a lot, but “Mighty River” should be the second followed closely by “Mystery of Life.” There’s room for other titles here as well with “Remember Me” either wrapping up the list or coming in fourth with “This Is Me” arriving last.

Broken Wings, Crown Sleeps, Evermore, Found My Place, Friends Are Family, Home, How Does…Forever, I Don’t Wanna…, If I Dare, It Ain’t Fair, Jump, Little Change…, Mighty River, Mystery Of Love, Never Forget, PBNJ, Prayers…World, Remember Me, Ride, She, Stand Up…, Star, Tell Me How Long, There’s Something Special, This Is Me, Truth To Power, Visions Of Gideon, You Shouldn’t Look…, Your Hand I Will…

Best Supporting Actor

While Willem Dafoe is likely to start out the list, surprises are in store if it’s, instead, Steve Carell. If Dafoe is first, then we’ll know pretty quickly whether we have a potential double-nominated-film situation. The second name on the list is either Armie Hammer or Woody Harrelson, and if neither, then it’s Jenkins and there will be only one chance for a second nomination from a single film. Without Hammer, Michael Stuhlbarg will round out the list. With Hammer, he may not. With Harrelson and Hammer, then there’s definitely no Stuhlbarg and probably no Christopher Plummer. However, I expect that we may have another year without two nominees from the same film as following Hammer, the expected second name, should be Jenkins. Jenkins in third will either be followed by Plummer or Rockwell. If not Plummer, then we could have a surprise arrival of either Michael Shannon or Stuhlbarg because Rockwell is either third or fourth on the list in many scenarios or the last in mine.

Carell, Dafoe, Elba, Hammer, Harrelson, Hedlund, Jenkins, Mitchell, Plummer, Rockwell, Shannon, Stewart, Stuhlbarg

Best Supporting Actress

For this list, we start off either with a stunner or a safe list. Mary J. Blige is expected to lead the list, but it could be headed by either Hong Chau or Tiffany Haddish. If it’s Holly Hunter, then the remainder are almost guaranteed to be Allison Janney, Lesley Manville, Laurie Metcalf, and Octavia Spencer. If Blige does head the list and is followed by either Chau or Haddish, then it’s Hunter, Janney, and Metcalf. If It’s all of them, then Hunter’s out and Janney and Metcalf are in as those are the only two anchors in the whole list that will be guaranteed to be there.

Blige, Chau, Ehle, Haddish, Hunter, Janney, Leo, Manville, Metcalf, Pfeiffer, Smith, Richardson, Spencer

Best Actor

The first three slots should be set: Timothée Chalamet, Daniel Day-Lewis, and James Franco. If any of those are missing, then Denzel Washington might be finishing out the list or Jake Gyllenhaal or Tom Hanks have shocked everyone to get nominations. After the expected first three, it’s either Daniel Kaluuya and Gary Oldman or Oldman and Washington.

Chalamet, Day-Lewis, Franco, Gyllenhaal, Hanks, Kaluuya, Jackman/Greatest, Jackman/Logan, Oldman, Pattinson, Washington

Best Actress

The first name on the list should end all speculation. If it’s Sally Hawkins then the remaining four are set, Frances McDormand, Margot Robbie, Saoirse Ronan, and Meryl Streep. If either Annette Bening, Jessica Chastain, or Judi Dench are on top, then Streep is the likely person to lose out, otherwise there might be a riot if it’s one of the other four.

Bening, Chastain, Dench, Hawkins, Lawrence, McDormand, Nixon, Robbie, Ronan, Stone, Streep, Winslet

Best Adapted Screenplay

The first title on the list should be Call Me by Your Name. If it isn’t, then there will be a cry of foul heard very loudly. Of course, it could be second after a surprise nomination for Blade Runner 2049, which should indicate that the film is a surprise Best Picture nominee, but Call Me by Your Name should be first. Then, it’s either The Disaster Artist in second or Logan or The Lost City of Z in second. Of course, either of those could also be third, with Molly’s Game third. If it’s fourth, the question is whether it’s Mudbound that gets dumped or Wonder, with the latter seeming most likely.

Beguiled, Blade Runner, Call Me by, Disaster Artist, Last Flag, Logan, Lost City, Molly’s Game, Mudbound, Victoria, Wonder, Wonder Woman, Wonderstruck

Best Original Screenplay

All the speculation we’ve had about this category may be firmed up with the first title revealed. The Big Sick could be first, in which case I, Tonya or Shape of Water could be dumped, but Get Out is the genuine guarantee that should be first or second. First means I, Tonya comes second and Lady Bird third, but if Lady Bird is instead second, then Phantom Thread has made an unexpected appearance. Any way things go, Three Billboards will be last, probably preceded by Shape of Water and, if not, Phantom Thread or the reemergence of The Post.

Big Sick, Darkest Hour, Downsizing, Dunkirk, Get Out, I Tonya, Lady Bird, Phantom Thread, Post, Shape of Water, Three Billboards

Best Animated Feature

This may be the toughest category to predict, at least in terms of how many changes could have affected the generally expected narrative. We’ll be able to tell right off if the rules changse are a help or a hindrance to independent and foreign animation. The Breadwinner is either first or Coco is. Coco being announced first, or at least a title other than Breadwinner coming in first will probably be a bad sign. After Coco, we’ll either find out if Despicable Me 3 makes the list or we jump to something else. Despciable in third will likely mean we’ve either got a repeat of the Lego Movie fiasco or the Lego Batman Movie will make the list. If it’s fourth, there’s only one real follow-up: Loving Vincent. Of course, Loving Vincent missing out might also be a bad sign for the state of the category’s new rules. We’ll have to see how things play out.

Big Bad Fox, Birdboy, Boss Baby, Breadwinner, Cap Underpants, Cars, Cinderella, Coco, Despicable, Emoji, Ethel, Ferdinand, Girl Without, In This Corner, Lego Batman, Lego Ninjago, Loving Vincent, Mary/Flower, Moomins, My Entire, Napping, Silent Voice, Smurfs, Star, Sword Art, Window Horses

Best Foreign Language Film

Where does this category start? Anywhere other than A Fantatsic Woman and all hell might break lose. The acclaimed film is widely expected to be first out of the gate, but Foxtrot would hold that position likely if it doesn’t. After Fantastic, there could be a Félicité surprise or an expected Foxtrot. After that, it’s either In the Fade or The Insult or both. By the time we get to Loveless, which seems very likely to get a spot, it will either be fourth, followed by The Square or Ruben Östlund is once again stiffed if Loveless is fifth. Of course, Loveless in third would mean good things for both The Square and The Wound, but that scenario seems especially unlikely.

Fantastic Woman, Félicité, Foxtrot, In the Fade, Insult, Loveless, On Body, Square, Wound

Best Director

The first name announced will also determine where the biggest surprises might occur. Christopher Nolan is probably first on the list, but if he isn’t, then either Luca Guadagnino or Denis Villeneuve have pulled off an upset. Then, someone’s getting bumped and how the game plays out could be fascinating. Nolan has to be first on the list to follow the DGA list, which would be followed by Jordan Peele and Greta Gerwig, then Guillermo del Toro, who will be either fourth or fifth. If we get to the final slot and del Toro hasn’t been announced, then Martin McDonagh is left out. If del Toro is fourth, then McDonagh is in.

Blade/Villeneuve, Call/Guadagnino, Darkest/Wright, Dunkirk/Nolan, Florida/Baker, Get Out/Peele, I Tonya/Gillespie, Lady Bird/Gerwig, Molly’s/Sorkin, Mudbound/Rees, Phantom/Anderson, Post/Spielberg, Shape/del Toro, Three/McDonagh

Best Picture

And now we’re down to the end. Anywhere from 5 to 10 nominees can be announced. And we may know precisely how many we have when we hit The Shape of Water. Since that film and the film after it, Three Billboards, are assured nominees, then there’s nothing else to come. Of course, the biggest fun comes before that. So, let’s look at each title on the list individually and examine what’s come before as signs for the future.

What film leads the list tells us a lot about how long the list is. If The Big Sick has earned nominations in Original Screenplay and Supporting Actress, it is a strong possibility to lead off the list. If it has neither, it’s not going to be a Best Picture nominee. Even if it has only Supporting Actress, Best Picture is unlikely without that writing citation.

Next up could be Blade Runner 2049. The more nominations it’s racked up by this point in the announcements, the more likely it may make an appearance. It is likely to earn Original Score, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, and Visual Effects. If it doesn’t get Editing or the Sound citations, Best Picture is unlikely. If it does and it picks up something like Costume Design as well, don’t be surprised to see it here or even in Best Director. Only one film in the last ten years has earned six or more nominations without a Best Picture nomination and that was Carol. That could help Blade Runner out, or it might not. Things are a bit different now than they once were.

Ostensibly, the first alphabetical title to be read is Call Me by Your Name. If it isn’t announced, then there is a major problem with the Academy and they will hear about it as this will be the second gay love story in recent years to fail to earn a Best Picture nomination in spite of critical acclaim, Moonlight notwithstanding.

Second on the list will either be Darkest Hour or Dunkirk. If the latter, then we are probably looking at a field of eight or nine nominees. With Darkest Hour, we could hit ten. To know if Darkest Hour is a competitor, look at the creative categories. Is it mentioned in more than a couple of spots or is it hit-and-miss all morning. That answer will tell you whether it shows up or not.

After Dunkirk, the big question is whether Get Out is third or if The Florida Project has outperformed its guild run and managed a nomination with so very little. If it shows up in Best Original Screenplay, this citation becomes a distinct possibility. If not, I wouldn’t hold my breath.

After Get Out, you get either I, Tonya or Lady Bird. For I, Tonya to show up, look for nominations in Costume Design, Film Editing, or Makeup and Hairstyling as a sign of strength. With any of those plus Original Screenplay, not only could a surprise Best Director nomination occur, but a Best Picture nomination is almost assured.

Lady Bird is certain to show up, then the three biggest question marks. Mudbound placing in Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, and Cinematography would be a good sign. Showing up in other categories would mean Netflix’s film is likely in for Best Picture. If it misses any or all of those nominations, then Best Picture is out of the question.

Next is Phantom Thread, which has impressed, but it has screened terribly late. Best Actor and Costume Design are expected, as is Original Score, but if the film also merits nominations in Production Design, Original Screenplay and/or Supporting Actress, then Best Picture is probably in the cards.

The Post has a solid reputation and its a significant message, but the precursors haven’t been kind to it, especially the guilds. If Streep is the film’s lone other nomination or, if it also gets in for Original Score, don’t expect a guaranteed Best Picture berth, though it’s still quite likely. If it overperforms and earns nominations in Film Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Best Actor, and/or Best Director, Best Picture would seem assured.

At that point, we round out whatever number of fimls with The Shape of Water or Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, either of which missing the top category would be absolutely shocking. By the time Best Supporting Actor finishes revealing nominations, we will know just how high Shape of Water‘s nomination count reaches. A double nomination in that category would mean a new record is probably in store, otherwise, we’re looking at a tie with 14.

Big Sick, Blade Runner, Call Me by, Darkest Hour, Disaster, Dunkirk, Florida, Get Out, I Tonya, Lady Bird, Mudbound, Phantom Thread, Post, Shape of Water, Three Billboards

And that’s everything for this year. I feel a bit like I rushed through some of these and I apologize if they don’t make 100% sense. However, this is where things stand. To read my regular comments on each category, follow the link above to our contributors’ final predictions.