For our second Rundown article, we tackle the aural excitement of musical underscore. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Original Score as well as general commentary about the race. Next week, we’ll start off on Monday with a category that has a small tie today’s category where the last time a Best Picture winner won the category was 2008, which was only the fifth time in the category’s 84 year history (1944, 1958, 1997, 2003 & 2008).

Best Original Score

Winner Predictions

• Dunkirk
• Phantom Thread
• The Shape of Water (WL O) (PP R) [New] (TB O) (TL O)
• Star Wars: The Last Jedi
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Runner-Up Predictions

• Dunkirk (TB O)
• Phantom Thread (WL R) [New] (PP R) [New](TL O)

(color and symbol key at bottom of page)

Wesley Lovell: I had originally thought Blade Runner 2049 was a shoo-in, but it wasn’t even nominated. That leaves a slate of potential winners that seem hard to narrow down. Dropping John Williams’ Star Wars: The Last Jedi score is probably the easiest elimination. Beyond that, eliminate at your own peril. The biggest chatter this year has centered around Dunkirk, The Shape of Water, and Three Billboards. All three are Best Picture players, but all season, it’s been a battle between Hans Zimmer for Dunkirk and Alexandre Desplat for The Shape of Water. Desplat’s more unique score is certianly more likely and since I would consider him this generation’s John Williams, I suspect he has a bit of a leg up.
Peter J. Patrick: I’m going to go with personal taste on this one and predict that Alexandre Desplat will win his second Oscar for The Shape of Water, with either Jonny Greenwood (Phantom Thread) or Carter Burwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) possibly pulling an upset.
Tripp Burton: This is an eclectic category this year, but there is one clear frontrunner leading the pack. Golden Globe winner Alexandre Desplat has one win here for his 9 nominations, and this is a perfect spot for voters to check off The Shape of Water on their ballots. As for the others, Hans Zimmer (who hasn’t won in over 20 years with nine nominations) is a chance to honor Dunkirk, although that score is a little more divisive, and John Williams has more nominations than any composer in history, even if it has also been over two decades since he has won. Carter Burwell and Johnny Greenwood are on their second and first nominations respectively, after years of being seen as snubbed, and either one of them could sneak in a surprise win. I’m sticking with Desplat, though, who has the beloved film, the beloved score, and the name recognition needed to prevail.
Thomas La Tourrette: At this point the lyrical score of The Shape of Water looks destined to win the Oscar. It has won more of the precursor awards than any other film, though Phantom Thread is a close second. Winning both the Critics Choice and the Golden Globe probably helped its chances immensely. It would be only the second win for Alexandre Desplat. He does have strong competition. Johnny Greenwood is finally nominated and the Academy might want to make up for overlooking him in previous years. His work on Phantom Thread is lush, very different than the non-nominated work from There Will Be Blood. In a different year, I could easily imagine this score winning. The pulsing beat of Hans Zimmer’s work for Dunkirk was an early favorite, but that seems to have faded with time. If the Academy decides to go for something very different, this could win, though that is unlikely. I do not think that either Carter Burwell (Three Billboards) or John Williams (Star Wars) will be much of a factor here. The Shape of Water should easily win.

KEY: