For our tenth Rundown article, we look at the most inventive category. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Original Screenplay as well as general commentary about the race. Thursday, we’ll cover the category that, behind Directing and any of the acting categories, has matched up with Best Picture the most frequently.

Best Original Screenplay

Winner Predictions

• The Big Sick
• Get Out (TB R) [New] (TL O)
• Lady Bird
• The Shape of Water
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (WL R) [New] (PP O)

Runner-Up Predictions

• Get Out (WL R) [New]
• Lady Bird (PP O) (TB R) [New]
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (TL O)

(color and symbol key at bottom of page)

Wesley Lovell: Before the Writers Guild of America weighed in, this race was a three way race (sorry The Big Sick and The Shape of Water). Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Lady Bird, and Get Out each had strong claims to an Oscar victory. Then the WGA chose Get Out. With Three Billboards ineligible, that pretty much meant Get Out knocked Lady Bird out of the race. While I would love to see Jordan Peele win for his screenplay to Get Out, Three Billboards is still a strong contender for Best Picture and Martin McDonagh, whether unfairly or not, was left off the Best Picture slate. That may give voters the impetus to choose his script. What would be most alarming about that is the accusations of racism against Three Billboards may not be entirely appropriate, but they would be enough to create a narrative that would be rather embarrassing for the Academy if they picked the mildly racist Three Billboards over the film about benevolent racism Get Out. That irony might not be missed by some voters, which could push Get Out over the top, but this is one of the few categories where we may have to wait for the envelope opening to see who wins. Of course, if BAFTA voters pick Peele over McDonagh, the race may permanently shift in Get Out‘s favor.
Peter J. Patrick: This one’s a tough call between Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and Lady Bird. with The Shape of Water also possible. The other nominees, Get Out and The Big Sick, just seem too lightweight. I expect Three Billboards will take it, but I’d be delighted to see Lady Bird win instead.
Tripp Burton: This will be one of the closest races of the night, and one that no one will be certain of until the envelope gets opened. Get Out won the WGA Award, which is usually a good sign, but the Globe-winning Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri was ineligible there, which means we don’t really know how that is faring with industry voters. This could be voters best chance to honor Get Out, but it also could be the best chance to honor Lady Bird, so voters could throw either of those films, and their auteurs, a bone. Then you have The Shape of Water, which is our Best Picture frontrunner and could always win here if it starts to sweep the night. Like I said, this category is a mess, and there are four serious contenders.
Thomas La Tourrette: (Editor: Commentary and Revised Predictions provided after publication) This is one of the closest races at the Oscars, if not the closest. Neither The Shape of Water nor The Big Sick will probably really be in contention, which makes it a three way race. Get Out won the WGA, giving it a better chance of winning over Lady Bird at the Oscars. Three Billboards was not eligible for that award, so there is no way to know how they would have voted if it had been in the mix. Three Billboards will probably win two acting awards and could conceivably win for Picture as well, so a screenplay award would not be unexpected. On the other hand, this is probably the only place where either Get Out or Lady Bird could win, so there may be some sentiment for giving one of them the award. There is the possibility that they could knock each other out of the running giving Three Billboards the win. I am thinking that the WGA could herald an Oscar win for Get Out, but I could easily see it going to one of the other two as well. The upcoming BAFTA awards might make it a little clearer, but this is my best guess for the moment.

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