It’s once again time for our rundown of upcoming films. This time, we’re taking a look at the impending month of July. Several major blockbusters are on there way, so join me in running them down and preferably with a semi.

I’ve had some bad luck with prognosticating lately, so I’ve decided to lower my expectations on several films to try and get closer to what they may actually make. Adjustments to my thought processes will have to be made over time as I get used to my and the box office’s methodolgy.

July 1-3, 2011

Larry Crowne

Premise: Fired from his job, an aging man goes back to college where he falls in love with his speech teacher.
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Expectations: Solid. Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts seem a potent combination and could propel a higher box office than even I project. The film does look like a crowd pleaser even if Hanks hasn’t had a live action hit in awhile.
Oscar Prospects: None

Monte Carlo

Premise: A gaggle of girls find themselves mistaken for royalty on a vacation in Monte Carlo.
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Expectations: Weak. I wouldn’t expect another tween girls-targeted comedy to perform too well at the box office especially when the secondary fanbase, adult women, will be looking to Larry Crowne for fun instead.
Oscar Prospects: None

Transformers: Dark of the Moon

Premise: The Autobots and Decepticons fully bring their war to earth setting it on the path of collapse.
Box Office Prospects: $450 M
Expectations: Strong. Even the poorly reviewed second film topped the $400 million mark. I have little reason to expect this one won’t do the same…unless everyone was turned off by the second.
Oscar Prospects: Technical categories only including Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Visual Effects.

Also Releasing this weekend: The Perfect Host, a thriller about a criminal trying to find a safe place to hide only to face a more sinister fate at the hands of a dedicated party host.

July 8-10, 2011

Horrible Bosses

Premise: A group of friends plot to murder their bosses.
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Expectations: Mixed. This is the kind of movie that, if done well, could be a sleeper hit. However, I expect that it will likely fade quickly.
Oscar Prospects: None

Zookeeper

Premise: About to leave the zoo he loves, a group of talking animals attempts to persuade their lovable zookeeper to stay.
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Expectations: Modest. While it’s likely to be the number one new film of the weekend, Transformers will eat it alive. It may eke out a modest result, but I expect it’s rather idiotic appearance will doom it to a lackluster overall performance.
Oscar Prospects: None

July 15-17, 2011

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2

Premise: The final film in the vaunted Harry Potter franchise featuring the final battle between Harry and Lord Voldemort.
Box Office Prospects: $350 M
Expectations: Strong. The final film in the saga is bound to outgross all that came before it, but since it won’t get high enough to surpass Transformers‘ final total. Regardless, this film is going to be heavily front-loaded, but may do well as everyone who enjoyed the series slowly makes their way to see it in the theaters. The big question mark is whether 3D ticket sales will boost it to $400 M, which is possible.
Oscar Prospects: Being the final film, it’s possible the film will find a lot of support in the Academy in many different categories.

Winnie the Pooh

Premise: Once again Christopher Robin finds himself in trouble and the gang must rescue him.
Box Office Prospects: $85 M
Expectations: Solid. While it’s not going to be able to hold a candle to the weekend’s other juggernaut, the latest hand-drawn Disney animated effort should do good business, especially among fans of the little honey-loving ursine.
Oscar Prospects: Depending on how many animated films enter the race and how strong the competition is, Disney could rep another Pixar/Disney pairing in the Animated Feature race.

Also Releasing this weekend: Snow Flower and the Secret Fan, from the director of The Joy Luck Club comes another time-bouncing story of unrequited love.

July 22-24, 2011

Captain America: The First Avenger

Premise: Set during World War II, a scrawny American is put through a secret government project that turns him into the quintessential American soldier.
Box Office Prospects: $200 M
Expectations: Strong. The blatant patriotism paired with the superhero genre should prove a potent combination for this film.
Oscar Prospects: It’s not likely to feature in too many categories, but Visual Effects, Sound Mixing and Sound Editing are solid bets.

Friends with Benefits

Premise: Two friends, attempting to avoid the pitfalls of Hollywood romantic clichés, find adding sex into their relationship creates more issues than they expected.
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Expectations: Mixed. Will Gluck saw success with his film Easy A last year, but will Justin Timberlake and Mila Kunis be able to draw an audience. The jury is still out on that one and may be until critics have their say.
Oscar Prospects: None

Also Releasing this weekend: A Little Help, a comedy about a single mother trying to cope with the recent death of her husband.

July 29-31, 2011

Cowboys & Aliens

Premise: A mysterious stranger, wanted by the police, finds himself at the center of an alien attack on the Old West.
Box Office Prospects: $125 M
Expectations: Solid. This is the kind of film that either sinks or swims at the box office. Jon Favreau knows how to please an audience, so it will probably do good business, but we must always remember Jonah Hex. The good news for Universal is that they’ve done a better job advertising Cowboys & Aliens than Warners did with Hex.
Oscar Prospects: Mostly tech categories with Art Direction and Costume Design more possible than other summer films.

Crazy, Stupid, Love.

Premise: A loving father must re-adjust his life while he combats marital problems and seeks out the advice of a local Lothario who may have found the one he’ll settle down with.
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Expectations: Mixed. It looks like the kind of film that could do solid business. It’s not a broad comedy, so its subdued nature may make it harder to sell, but I expect it to do decently well.
Oscar Prospects: None

The Smurfs

Premise: The popular ’80s cartoon creatures find their way to New York City.
Box Office Prospects: $80 M
Expectations: Mixed. Curiosity may drive a lot of this film’s business, but hokeyness may doom it. The Adventures of Rocky and Bullwinkle didn’t do well, but Inspector Gadget did, so I imagine something on the Gadget side of the box office will occur.
Oscar Prospects: Visual Effects is possible, but so few live action/animated blends have done well at the Oscars, that you shouldn’t even really consider it.