The month of September is a bit of an amorphous time not only for the box office, but for potential Oscar hopefuls. Some Oscar hopefuls get a head-start on competition by premiering in September hoping that strong buzz will carry them through to the critics prizes. However, more often than not, the releases of September get sidelined early by bad word of mouth or poor critical reception an end up collapsing before December. What’s more interesting is how frequently buzzed-about movies debut late in December hoping that bad word of mouth doesn’t pick up enough to keep voters from building their ballots off buzz instead of actual experience.

As for box office, it’s hard to think of a box office smash that arrived in September. Because most kids are just starting back to school in this month, the post-Labor day box office tends to diminish without a steady inflow of bored Summer breakers. Still, a hit or two (especially on Labor Day weekend) has occurred periodically in history, so here’s what we can look forward to this September.

SEPTEMBER 2-4, 2011

APOLLO 18

Premise: A secret 18th mission to the fabled Apollo space program becomes an unmitigated disaster when a strange entity begins attacking the defenseless astronauts.
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Expectations: This is the kind of horror-esque flick that lives or dies by originality. While there are elements of that in the trailer for the film, it’s hard to see where the film could be too original or expand much on the genre.
Oscar Prospects: None.

THE DEBT

Premise: Two Mossad agents remember their fateful hunt of a Nazi war criminal with a third agent whose present day crisis forces them to find out whether their original mission was actually successful.
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Expectations: It’s a risky gamble releasing this on Labor Day weekend. It’s not the kind of film that takes off at the box office. On top of its somewhat dark and quite serious subject matter, the film will be lucky to pull in the art film crowd.
Oscar Prospects: This film was pushed out of its Oscar berth last year, so I question whether the film will be able to tickle the fancy of Oscar voters the way Munich did. I’m guessing it will perform poorly at the box office and be mostly forgotten by the Oscar voting period.

SHARK NIGHT 3D

Premise: A Louisiana lake suffers shocking fresh water shark attacks that plague seven vacationers.
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Expectations: Two horror films on one weekend should cannibalize business enough to keep either from being much of a success. And this film seemss the weaker of the two covering far less inventive territory than its moon-based companion.
Oscar Prospects: None.

SEPTEMBER 9-11, 2011

BUCKY LARSON: BORN TO BE A STAR

Premise: Hoping to follow in his parents’ footsteps, a young man from the Midwest moves to Hollywood in hopes of becoming a porn star.
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Expectations: It’s an Adam Sandler film without Adam. Sandler Box office disappointment is what I expect.
Oscar Prospects: None.

CONTAGION

Premise: An epidemic spreads as an all-star cast battle fear, death and sorrow.
Box Office Prospects: $55 M
Expectations: The biggest thing going for the film is its recognizable cast. While the concept has been done before and there’s no question it’s more art house-niche than blockbuster, it could still perform well with audiences looking for a bit more from their thrillers.
Oscar Prospects: This is one of the bigger question marks. this fall. It’s reminiscent of the star-studded flicks of the 1950s-1970s that Oscar somewhat liked and more akin to the disaster films that did modest Oscar business in the Irwin Allen era. Yet, that style of filmmaking hasn’t exacty ignited Oscar voter fancies lately

WARRIOR

Premise: Two brothers pair off in a big mixed martial arts competition that both need to win in order to prove to themselves, their peers and their families that they are survivors.
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Expectations: This reminds me a good deal of Darren Aronofsky’s The Wrestler and a little bit of The Fighter. I don’t know which film this is more likely to perform like at the box office, but I’m leaning towards the lower end. There are no really audience-recognizable names attached, but that may not be much of a hindrance, especially if marketed more like Fighter than Wrestler.
Oscar Prospects: Boxing. Wrestling. Now mixed martial arts. The Academy hasn’t been unfriendly to this genre, so it could do well. If critics get behind it, Tom Hardy could be a nomination contender and so could the film in several categories, but any wins for this film are unlikely.

SEPTEMBER 16-18, 2011

DRIVE

Premise: A Hollywood stuntman moonlighting as a wheelman finds himself with a contract on his head after a failed heist.
Box Office Prospects: $55 M
Expectations: The heist film has been done more often than it should be in recent years, but that doesn’t stop Hollywood from making more. Yet, Pusher director Nicolas Winding Refn tries to add an artistic twist to the genre with this film that could be a surprise hit with popular Ryan Gosling behind the wheel.
Oscar Prospects: In the way that The French Connection became a surprise Oscar contender despite a history of the Academy avoiding the genre, this could be provide a new direction for the Academy to go looking for a way to bolster its reputation while remaining hip.

I DON’T KNOW HOW SHE DOES IT

Premise: Sarah Jessica Parker and Greg Kinnear take the comedy stage as an earnest middle class family whose breadwinner (Parker) attempts to balance love, life and family.
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Expectations: Parker and Kinnear haven’t had much success at the box office with their comedy features, so I don’t know that this one will perform much better.
Oscar Prospects: Apart from the lengthy title, I can’t really imagine the Academy warming up to this comedy.

THE LION KING 3D

Premise: The popular animated film that sat at the box office peak for Disney in 1994 hopes to find an audience in a 3D box office re-release.
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Expectations: Disney animation’s biggest hand-drawn hit in history attempts to succeed where Beauty and the Beast failed.
Oscar Prospects: Ineligible.

STRAW DOGS

Premise: A remake of the Dustin Hoffman/Susan George thriller from 40 years ago finding a young couple in a ranch house plagued by contractors who want nothing more than to take the wife for their sexual plaything.
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Expectations: Horror remakes haven’t been making much at the box office lately, especially ones that don’t have very effective advertising.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Also Releasing this weekend: Restless, Gus Van Sant’s latest film stars Mia Wasikowska as a terminally ill teenage girl who falls for a boy who likes to attend funerals. Van Sant hasn’t been on Oscar’s radar in awhile, but this could be a solid chance for him.

SEPTEMBER 23-25, 2011

ABDUCTION

Premise: Discovering he was abducted as a child, a young man finds himself embroiled in an espionage thriller as he tries to uncover the truth about his past.
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Expectations: This should be a modest hit when released after several weeks of weak box office performances. While it will have more to do with Twihards coming out in droves for Taylor Lautner, the formulaic nature of the film may keep it from being too big a success.
Oscar Prospects: None.

DOLPHIN TALE 3D

Premise: Based on a real-life story about a dolphin who has to have his tail amputated and finds his brave caregivers working hard to make him a prosthetic replacement to help keep him alive.
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Expectations: It will be a modest family hit, at least if the advertising has much to say about it.
Oscar Prospects: It looks like it could be poignant, but ultimately schmaltzy, which doesn’t really go over well with the Academy. Just ask Disney and their attempts to make Secretariat a player.

KILLER ELITE

Premise: A retired British Elite Special Air Service member faces down his mentor’s captors.
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Expectations: Jason Statham has not been a potent force at the box office. His pair of major successes were popular in spite of his presence in them. I expect this film to perform about on par with his lower-earning work.
Oscar Prospects: None.

MONEYBALL

Premise: An inside look at the pay-to-play model that has made football such a money-rich sport as a young coach tries everything he can to bolster his team’s flagging performance.
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Expectations: A lot of this film’s success will come down to how well it plays with mass audiences. For every Blind Side and Remember the Titans, there’s a We Are Marshall or Hoosiers. With Brad Pitt in the lead, this period sports drama could do above average for the genre.
Oscar Prospects: Whether the box office is spectacular or not, expect there to be some buzz building around the film. And with popular Capote director Bennett Miller at the helm, it could do quite well.