MAY 6-8, 2011

JUMPING THE BROOM

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Box Office Prediction: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Absolutely none. The trailer makes the film look unfunny at best and unpleasant at worst. There will still be a demographic that flocks to the film without any hesitation, which should permit it to pull off a passable total.”
Box Office Results: $37.3 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] The film outperformed my expectations, but not by much. It’s a fairly standard performance for this genre of films.

SOMETHING BORROWED

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Box Office Prediction: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “This should be another in a long line of unpopular romantic comedies. This is mostly a date movie and while nothing else this weekend comes off as a date movie, this one’s not going to break any records.”
Box Office Results: $39.0 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] The romcom box office sweet spot (for non-bluckbusters) seems to be around $35-$40. This one hit it.

THOR

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Maybe some tech award consideration, but it will have to make a boat load of money to even hope for that consideration.”
Oscar Results: No change in opinion.
Box Office Prediction: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “We’re not talking about a well known superhero here. Although Marvel has done a terrific job marketing its films, even The Incredible Hulk, which was a more recognizable name, pulled in a scant $134 Million. The other mitigating factor here will be the fact that the film has no bankable stars. Still, being part of the build-up to The Avengers film, it’s likely the film will do solid business. It just won’t be the top grossing superhero film this year.”
Box Office Results: $180.7 M
Thoughts: [Success] The Marvel universe continues to churn out modest-sized hits. With this and the other three Avengers members performing well, the Avengers movie next year should be a staggering success.

THE BEAVER

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Gibson’s drunken rants and persistent negative image with the public will keep any chances he might have had before his arrests on the nil side.”
Oscar Results: No change in opinion.
Box Office Prediction: $20 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Some minor curiosity will bring in a bit of money, but ultimately, this indie film looks like the kind of movie the “cool” kids like to poke fun at.”
Box Office Results: $970.1 K
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Mel Gibson’s legal and social troubles ended up keeping viewers away from the film rather than bring the curious to it.

HOBO WITH A SHOTGUN

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: XXXX
Box Office Prediction: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Trying for a better result than Snakes on a Plane, even a clever premise and outlandish story aren’t likely to make this film very much money. A niche effort is all they can hope for.”
Box Office Results: $701.4 K
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Snakes on a Plane should have been the clue to producers that films like this just don’t sell well to mass audiences. Even Grindhouse with bigger names attached didn’t perform to well at the box office.

MAY 13-15, 2011

BRIDESMAIDS

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Box Office Prediction: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Perhaps pushing this in June or July AFTER wedding season might have been a better choice. The specific subject of the film will be too painfully realistic for most brides-to-be. And although this season favors guys, women are still consumers and so it should do minor, if unmemorable business.”
Box Office Results: $165.7 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] This year, the R-rated comedy is queen. Not expecting much out of this Judd Apatow, female buddy flick, I kept my prediction conservative. Yet, the film out-performed expectations and became something of a smash.

PRIEST

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “It has a very stylish look about it, but the Academy won’t care.”
Oscar Results: WIth that kind of box office, any kind of minor shot it might have had at some creative awards is gone.
Box Office Prediction: $85 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “It’s going to be competing heavily with Thor’s repeat business, but it has the right kind of appeal to pull them away. The problem is that Paul Bettany’s last attempt at a teen-targeted graphic novel-type flick, Legion, tanked. Producers are hoping that this one will benefit from a May berth, but I don’t expect to do much more than double Legion’s paltry $40 M total.”
Box Office Results: $29.1 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] This year’s big budget, comic-to-screen adaptation flop comes in the form of the highly publicized genre flick that would have been better situated in the early Spring where no one would have noticed a failure.

CAMERAMAN: THE LIFE AND WORK OF JACK CARDIFF

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “A documentary about an Oscar-winning legend? It’s got the potential, but even the Academy is shy about honoring docs about artists, even familiar ones.”
Oscar Results: It could still do well, but such a disappointing box office result won’t make it easy to remember.
Box Office Prediction: $2 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “I don’t expect the box office to sit up and beg for this documentary, but it will appeal to any number of cineastes familiar with Cardiff’s work, which is why I’m including it here.”
Box Office Results: $16.6 K
Thoughts: [Flop] Documentaries are such a tough sell, but one on a famed cinematographer should have been easier, but these numbers are rather disappointing.

MAY 20-22, 2011

PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: ON STRANGER TIDES

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Each of the films has had potential, but I don’t expect the Academy to jump on this quadquel.”
Oscar Results: I still think any nominations are a long shot, but Visual Effects is a possibility.
Box Office Prediction: $300 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “None of the three films to date have made less than $300 M and despite missing both Orlando Bloom and Keira Knightley, I expect Johnny Depp, who’s been quite successful at the box office in the last several years, should have no problem pulling the film to that magical number and maybe beyond, but missing it should come as a sign that the franchise is indeed faltering.”
Box Office Results: $238.4 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] When you have such a highly popular franchise as backing, a tally at this range is somewhat disappointing. Perhaps Jack Sparrow and crew have lost some of their potency.

MIDNIGHT IN PARIS

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Barcelona and Match Point were, coincidentally, the last films that earned Allen any Oscar attention. A good box office would probably help him out, though his European Period seems to be misfiring.”
Oscar Results: Now that the film has proven to be a box office success, Original Screenplay is assured and a handful of other nominations might follow.
Box Office Prediction: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Woody Allen’s biggest success 25 years ago (Hannah and Her Sisters posted a $40 M gross with Manhattan and Annie Hall behind by $1 M and $2 M respectively). The last two times he topped $20 M were with major female celebrities at the helm (Scarlett Johansson in 2005’s Match Point and Penelope Cruz in 2008’s Vicky Cristina Barcelona). I don’t think Rachel McAdams is going to cut it, though Owen Wilson may bring in a few people.”
Box Office Results: $47.2 M
Thoughts: [Success] Woody hasn’t had a box office phenom like this in years. It has been consistently performing week-after-week and, although I tacked in the number above, there’s no sign the film will stop growing, topping $50 M in the end may be in the cards.

MAY 27-29, 2011

THE HANGOVER, PART II

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “The first film didn’t earn anything. The second won’t either.”
Oscar Results: No change in opinion.
Box Office Prediction: $350 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “The first film was a surprise $277 M hit. This sequel comes only two years later, which is plenty of time to keep audiences’ attentions piqued. And considering how well sequels to surprise hits can do at the box office, this one should be one of the tops of the year.”
Box Office Results: $253.2 M
Thoughts: [Success] There is no doubt that the film was a success, but the heights to which it could have climbed were not within reach. While the numbers are still quite impressive, that it didn’t perform better is telling: perhaps being so little different than the original was not the wisest decision.

KUNG FU PANDA 2

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “The first film lost the Oscar to Pixar’s WALL-E, but things could easily change this year. Since the 2001 inception of the Animated Feature category, Pixar has only lost the award twice in the eight times it was nominated. The second time the loss was suffered by Cars. It is likely that Kung Fu Panda 2’s chief competition will be Cars 2. Both were massive marketing vehicles and both will be considered overdue (think how Pirates of the Caribbean 2 won Best Visual Effects in 2006 after the first film lost to the juggernaut of The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King in 2003). But in the end, I think Kung Fu Panda 2 ends up the one to beat, but a lot will depend on where critics come down on both films.”
Oscar Results: With a disappointing box office performance, the film may have had its legs cut out from under it. The film still has a chance against the critically maligned Cars 2, but a win may be out of its grasp.
Box Office Prediction: $400 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “The first film made quite a bit less than the original Hangover ($215 M to be precise), but if you consider Shrek as a fairly comparable, sizable hit (about the same size as the original Hangover) whose sequel managed to blow Finding Nemo’s record-holding $339 M out of the water by just over $100 M more than Nemo, and you have the likely holder for top box office champ of 2011. While I doubt it will top Shrek 2 or last year’s Toy Story 3, it should do quite well opposite The Hangover 2.”
Box Office Results: $161.9 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] While it’s hard to quanlify a $161 M total a failure, and the international numbers bolster it’s bank account, but for a film that had such a highly popular first outing and a heck of a lot of advertising, this result can’t be considered more than a minor flop.

THE TREE OF LIFE

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “I hate to make the comparison, but once again, it’s either going to come down on The Thin Red Line side of history of The New World side of history. In 1998, Malick’s Line earned seven Oscar nominations, including one for Best Picture. In 2005, Malick’s New World earned only one for Best Cinematography. Critics must be enthusiastic for Tree of Life to pull Line-sized numbers.”
Oscar Results: It’s still possible that the film will perform well with the Oscars, but the mediocre box office performance may have hurt its chances. A lot depends on end-of-year critics awards.
Box Office Prediction: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Terence Malick’s new film is highly anticipated, but a May opening seems a bit odd for such a cerebral film. It could mean the film isn’t that great and the studio’s trying to bury it…or they are just waiting for Cannes to weigh in. Either way, the film is likely to do business more on par with his The Thin Red Line ($36.4 M) than his The New World ($12.7 M).”
Box Office Results: $11.8 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Where did the film go wrong? For a movie geared towards cinephiles, a not too small group of filmgoers, the numbers are a tad anemic.