We’re looking at Oscar contenders as they release and trying to determine which films have potential and which have wasted it. Let’s look back at the month of April and see what films succeeded and faltered. Then we’ll look forward to June and see what has some potential.

Wesley Lovell’s Thoughts

April Retrospective
What a mess of a month April was for Oscar contenders. Of the four highlighted, none could say they were unqualified successes. There’s one winner and three losers.

The losers start with Riz Ahmed in a modern day version of Hamlet. It didn’t do well at the box office and reviews were on the lukewarm side. April releases with that profile are quickly forgotten and this one will most certainly be.

Another lukewarm critical response, Mother Mary did much better at the box office than Hamlet but its inauspicious debut and rapid descent afterwards suggest the film won’t be filmmaker David Lowery’s Oscar breakthrough.

You could certainly say that Michael was a box office hit, bigger even than Bohemian Rhapsody, it was clear that the similarities ended there. The film was trashed by critics and while audiences have saved poorly reviewed films in the past, it’s unlikely that the image-conscious Academy will recognize a film like this without some major acclaim to back it up.

Finally, we have the only semi-success. I Swear didn’t have great box office numbers but it was well received. While its overperformance at BAFTA suggested something transcendent, the facts on the ground differ. While Robert Aramayo might still be in contention for a Best Actor citation, the film’s underperformance with American critics and audiences suggest it’s not likely to make it to the final.

June Forecast
The first full month of the summer box office is surprisingly low on major contenders. We’ll start with the lowest profile and work our way up.

When Willem Dafoe received back-to-back Oscar nominations for The Florida Project (narrowly missing the win) and At Eternity’s Gate, everyone thought for sure he’d be back again and eventually win. It’s been several eyars since that one-two punch that although we keep talking about his prospects, it doesn’t seem like he’s having much luck. One of two impending releases, The Birthday Party, is the latest one we have glommed onto as being a potential Oscar-nominated vehicle. Unfortunately, the film got pushed off from its expected 2025 release into 2026 and has finally found a release at the arthouse in the worst month for those types of films. Suffice it to say, this isn’t likely going to be his next nomination.

Supergirl is the latest reinvention of the DCEU to make its way to screens and with it taking place in deep space, there is plenty of room for consideration in the craft categories, much like the similarly styled Guardians of the Galaxy. While it will probably be a decent hit at the box office, the Academy isn’t likely to recognize the film outside of either a left-field Sound nomination or the more likely Visual Effects citation, regardless of the reviews or box office.

Somewhat high profile, The Death of Robin Hood has the earmarks of a film the Academy might pay attention to. A revisionist take on the Robin Hood myth, the film is helmed by Pig director Michael Sarnoski with multi-Oscar nominee Hugh Jackman in the lead role. The trailer is reminiscent of Robert Eggers’ The Northman, which was a major Oscar no-show despite the early hype. Eggers later broke through with Nosferatu but Sarnoski is probably going to suffer a similar treatment. Robin Hood looks a bit too grisly and grim for Academy voters, though with major critical acclaim, the calculus could change.

While Toy Story 5 would probably be the highest profile film releasing in June, its Oscar chances are entirely limited to three categories: Animated Feature, Original Song, and Original Score. Sure, Sound is possible but I don’t expect it to be likely. The only thing that could derail the film from securing an assured Animated Feature slot (the other two categories are distant possibilities at best), is if it is absolutely annihilated by critics. The box office will be huge, probably even the biggest of the year, but its Oscar prospects will hinge entirely on critics asserting that the series hasn’t run out of battery life.

So what could be more high profile than Pixar’s flagship animated title? Steven Spielberg. Not just Spielberg but his return to science fiction. He’s spent a lot of time working on vanity projects and historical epics but Disclosure Day marks a return to a genre he redefined in the 1980s. Disclosure Day isn’t an adaptation and has some big names in it (Oscar nominees and winners alike). Unless this is an absolute misfire, mark this as the second major sci-fi project this year that will likely go over big with Oscar voters (Project Hail Mary was the first.

And that’s all I saw as being contenders in April/June.

Pete Patrick’s Thoughts

April Retrospective
Only two April releases were expected to have Oscar potential.

Of the two, Michael opened to strong worldwide box-office but devastatingly bad reviews. It can kiss its Oscar potential goodbye.

I Swear, which won a surprise Best Actor BAFTA for Robert Aramayo, landed in the U.S. with a thud. It’s not going to be anywhere near Oscar this year either.

June Forecast
Lots of blockbusters are releasing in June.

First up on June 5 is the live-action superhero movie, Masters of the Universe which should do well at the box-office, probably less so with Oscar voters.

June 12 sees the release of Disclosure Day, Steven Spielberg’s sci-fi thriller starring Emily Blunt and Colin Firth which could both ignite the box-office and find itself in contention for major Oscars at the end of the year.

Disney Pixar’s Toy Story 5 will likely light up the box-office when it is released on June 19. The Death of Robin Hood with Hugh Jackman, Jodie Comer, Bill Skarsgard, and Noah Jupe opening the same day, could become a sleeper hit especially if it appeals to large enough audiences looking for something other than a blockbuster.

June 26 gives us another blockbuster to end the month, but will audiences show up in droves for the latest attempt at making Supergirl a hit?

Thomas La Tourrette’s Thoughts

April Retrospective
April had some critically successful releases that might carry over to a few Oscar nominations, but the early release date probably means that all will be overlooked by the time January comes around.

The relationship film, The Drama, is the type that could get an original screenplay nomination, but it seemed to fade from public consciousness quickly, so probably not. Both Robert Pattinson and Zendaya received strong notices for their work but that will not carry over to acting noms.

Exit 8 sounded offbeat enough and filmed with such elan that it could pull off an adapted screenplay nomination, but I doubt that will happen.

The Christophers boasts strong performances from Michaela Coel and especially Ian McKellan. The little seen film will be a hard sell when it comes to getting nominated, but a late career nom for Ian McKellan is not outside the realm of possibility.

The latest version of Hamlet sounded excitingly done but seems to have left little impact. Riz Ahmed would pull off a nom for lead actor, but that will not happen.

Anne Hathaway has many films coming out this year, and her performance in Mother Mary got raves but this stylish film does not seem like the one that could net her a nomination.

Michael remains an enigma. Critics were not impressed yet it proved to be a box office sensation. Whether that popularity could carry over to Oscar nominations is doubtful. Jaafar Jackson got rave reviews for playing his uncle and Colman Domingo should always be considered a threat, and sound is also a possibility. But it feels unlikely to pull those off.

With Robert Aramayo’s surprising win at BAFTA for I Swear, he must remain in the conversation for a best actor nomination. The chances are slim, especially with the April release date, but I would not totally count him out yet.

June Forecast
June has surprisingly few films that look to be Oscar worthy, but Disclosure Day and Toy Story 5 are primed for multiple nominations.

Any Steven Spielberg movie has to be considered an Oscar possibility, so Disclosure Day is on the list. What it might be nominated for is unknown at this point, but it may well get some. The trailer is evocative, but it will depend on how good the film is.

I do not know what to make of the trailer of The Death of Robin Hood, but it does look like the type of film that could pull off craft nominations in various categories.

Pixar’s Toy Story franchise has been Oscar bait with the last two of the series winning best Animated Feature, so it is almost assured that Toy Story 5 will get a nomination there. It will probably be up for best song as well and could rack up ones for sound and screenplay. If it’s good, then best picture is a possibility too as Toy Story 3 managed to do that.

Supergirl could be a contender for visual effects and sound though Superman did not manage to pick those up.