We’re looking at Oscar contenders as they release and trying to determine which films have potential and which have wasted it. Let’s look back at the month of June and see what films succeeded and faltered. Then we’ll look forward to August and see what has some potential.

Wesley Lovell’s Thoughts

June Retrospective
June was a surprisingly disappointing month for Oscar contenders. One lived up to expectations, one almost did, and two collapsed while a fifth got moved back two months. More about that one in the August forecast section.

The two failures were Supergirl and The Death of Robin Hood. Neither were particularly well received by critics or audiences with the former doing notably bad with critics. With that kind of performance and an early release, it’s safe to say they aren’t going to be major Oscar contenders. Supergirl could still pull in nominations for Best Makeup & Hairstyling and Best Visual Effects while The Death of Robin Hood could still compete in the craft categories, neither of them are slam dunks.

Disclosure Day is Steven Spielberg’s return to science fiction and the hotly anticipated film did solid with critics and audiences but it faded fast at the box office and while audiences responded well, they weren’t over the moon about the film. It still remains one of the year’s three big sci-fi Oscar contenders but it might well have fallen behind both Project Hail Mary and Dune: Part Three at this point.

For the unqualified success, we have Toy Story 5. Audiences still loved it and it did amazingly well at the box office, but the overall critical acclaim managed to even out below the troubled fourth part, the one that few people thought was deserving of either its Oscar win or its acclaim. Still, the Academy loves the series and it remains the odds-on favorite to win this year but an incredibly well performing Wildwood could reset the calculus.

One film I didn’t cover back in May was The Invite. I don’t know if it was scheduled for a different month and moved or what happened but we can’t not talk about it. The critically acclaimed drama has a killer cast, any of which could be in acting contention but director Olivia Wilde has earned a great deal of praise and might emerge as a dark horse Best Directing contender and, if nothing else, a screenplay nominee. Whether things go beyond that depends on the breadth or dearth of contenders later this year but pencil it in at least.

August Forecast

And now for something completely different, the most dismal month of Oscar contention in the year, a place where potential contenders go to wither away. And boy do we have a number of potential stinkers on deck.

I’m going to tackle two films starring Willem Dafoe first. Late Fame and The Birthday Party. I’m not sure why both are releasing in August but it’s not a good sign, especially since the latter has been postponed once and into the Dreaded Month (TM). With the release window and the year it’s taken to release either, I wouldn’t bet on Dafoe getting a nomination this year.

The End of Oak Street, which is the new film from the director of It Follows, was thought initially to be a potential Oscar contender. The starry cast combined with the mysterious premise gave it a rosy sheen that we can probably now disregard. A sci-fi/horror combo, the film looks like a potential audience pleaser like District 9 but doesn’t seem to be an Oscar competitor like that film was.

Another delayed film is The Rivals of Amziah King, which has been percolating for well over a year now and is finally getting released. Will this be Matthew McConaughey’s return to the top of the box office charts or another in a long string of failures. It’s August so the box office hits may be few and far between, so maybe. That said, it would take a major push from critics to get this one to the Oscars. The premise has promise but the release window does not. I’d be surprised if it weren’t a mediocre performer with critics.

Tony is a biopic and the Academy has cooled on biopics in recent years but that doesn’t mean it can’t contend. What’s confusing is the August release. If the studio really had faith in it, it would have been positioned closer to Thanksgiving where food might encourage people to give it a shot. Unfortunately, the studio’s advertising push has been anemic and it doesn’t appear they have any faith in its Oscar potential so this one will need to be buoyed by amazing critical response to get very far.

I’m not sure what to make of Union County. It’s the kind of warty character drama that Oscar voters have honored in the past but it also feels like every other recovering drug addict film made in the last 30 years and that alone minimizes its chances. The studio could be hoping on solid word of mouth to carry it out of August to the Oscars but it’s unlikely for this strategy to work, especially without festival support to bolster its reputation.

Coyote vs. Acme is a giant question mark. It’s been sitting in development hell for years thanks to David Zaslav’s horrific sense of success and failure. He held the film back as a tax right off but audiences were clamoring for it. It’s the one thing the pending Warner Bros/Paramount merger enabled, the release of the film. Sure, it’s being dumped in August with minimal advertising and that might hurt its chances but it’s built such a reputation online that it might well buck their expectations. Further, all the shitty things Warner’s Zaszlav has done to animated productions in recent years, it’s likely the members of the Academy’s feature animation branch will support the film for the Oscars…if Warner bothers submitting it.

Lastly, we have the biggest conundrum: The Dog Stars the post-apocalyptic drama has a decent cast and the trailers have been engaging in some small way but the advertising campaign seems to be a bit on the flaccid side, which is making me wonder if they chose to dump it in August so it would be forgotten or if they genuinely thought the doldrums of August would be the perfect place for it to thrive. Either way, not only will box office acclaim be required, critics will likely need to love it as well. It might contender in Production Design, Sound, and/or Visual Effects but there’s a big “if” waiting for it. If the film crashes at the box office and is trashed by critics, no amount of high quality production techniques will overcome that.

And with that, I leave the rest of the report to my fellow contributors.

Pete Patrick’s Thoughts

June Retrospective
June’s big release was Steven Spielberg’s Disclosure Day which did not land as successfully as one might have hoped but can still emerge as a contender in this year’s awards depending on how the rest of the year plays out, especially for Emily Blunt’s Best Actress chances.

Also likely to be in discussion for year-end awards are the comedy The Invite especially for supporting players Edward Norton and Penelope Cruz and the independent film, and John Carney’s Power Ballad with Paul Rudd and Nick Jonas.

Toy Story 5 is also likely to be remembered for various animation awards.

August Forecast
The biggest hope for awards contention is probably going to be Ridley Scott’s apocalyptic drama, The Dog Stars releasing at the end of the month. This one has a potentially powerhouse cast led by Jacob Elordi and Margaret Qualley supported by the likes of Josh Brolin, Allison Janney, and Guy Pearce.

Films flying under the radar that might prove competitive include the mystery The End of Oak Street with Anne Hathaway and Ewan McGregor and the comedies One Night Only with Callum Turner and Monica Barbarao and Late Fame with Greta Lee and Willem Dafoe.

Thomas La Tourrette’s Thoughts

June Retrospective
June had surprisingly few films that look to be Oscar worthy, but Disclosure Day and Toy Story 5 are primed for multiple nominations.

Any Steven Spielberg movie has to be considered an Oscar possibility, so Disclosure Day is on the list. What it might be nominated for is unknown at this point, but it may well get some. The trailer is evocative, but it will depend on how good the film is.

I do not know what to make of the trailer of The Death of Robin Hood, but it does look like the type of film that could pull off craft nominations in various categories.

Pixar’s Toy Story franchise has been Oscar bait with the last two of the series winning best Animated Feature, so it is almost assured that Toy Story 5 will get a nomination there. It will probably be up for best song as well and could rack up ones for sound and screenplay. If it’s good, then best picture is a possibility too as Toy Story 3 managed to do that.

Supergirl could be a contender for visual effects and sound though Superman did not manage to pick those up.

August Forecast
There is only one August release that seems a possibility.

The Rivals of Amziah King was talked about as a possible Oscar contender last year. Now that it is finally being released, perhaps it will be one this year.