We’re looking at Oscar contenders as they release and trying to determine which films have potential and which have wasted it. Let’s look back at the month of July and see what films succeeded and faltered. Then we’ll look forward to September and see what has some potential.

Wesley Lovell’s Thoughts

July Retrospective
In my July forecast, I had four films down. I was fairly certain things would turn out as they did and I may have been correct. There were two other films that released that I didn’t put much stock in at the time but need to be considered somewhat now.

Let’s start with the two massive flops.

As expected, Angel’s Young Washington was a flop with critics. Dismissed easily, audiences were somewhat interested, giving it a solid opening weekend with a final tally around $50 million. That’s respectable. However, without critics, this type of release will struggle with Oscar voters even with a solid box office total.

Doing a bit better with audiences and worse with critics, the live-action adaptation of Moana was a colossal misfire. It may have outperformed last year’s Snow White but not by an impressive amount and the critical response was abysmal. The studio had hoped for The Littler Mermaid-level (or even Lilo & Stitch level numbers) but they weren’t able to muster that and since these animated-to-live-action adaptations have a spotty history with the Academy, this should be the end of the road for it.

Refusing to adapt itself into live action, Minions & Monsters did incredibly well with critics. Its cinema-themed narrative might have helped but it was undoubtedly a success in that regard. The box office, however, didn’t live up to expectations. While you can’t exactly sneeze at $176 million at the box office, its predecessor did more than double that and the film before that did about double as well. This franchise may have run out of steam with audiences and that alone might hinder its Best Animated Feature prospects but considering the minions-spin-off series has not fared well with Academy voters in the past, any misstep is likely to halve its predecessors’ potential as well.

With its stellar box office and decent (though not spectacular) reviews, Spider-Man: Brand New Day gets to stay in the Best Visual Effects race until the end. It’s not going to be a crossover hit and I can’t imagine it scoring nominations outside that category but at least it didn’t whiff it like Moana did.

Before we tackle the unquestioned success of July, there’s one last film I didn’t forecast two months ago that I think has emerged as a solid contender. The Samurai and the Prisoner has an impressive 83 from MetaCritic and 97% Fresh from Rotten Tomatoes. That makes it one of the most critically successful films of the year so far. If the film makes the submission list for the Best International Feature Oscar, it’s probably a solid contender for a nomination there. It could even cross over with nominations in Cinematography, Production Design, or Costume Design. I doubt it will make it to Best Picture but one never knows. The Academy has been willing to cite multiple non-English films in that category in recent years and while it will have competition from a few other major contenders, things could play out well for it.

The Odyssey. Nearly every other Christopher Nolan film has been well received by critics and this one is one of them. MetaCritic average is 88 and Rotten Tomatoes is 94% Fresh. Those are impressive numbers and not quite as high as Oppenheimer but still impressive considering how difficult it is for box office blockbusters to also earn critical acclaim. And it certainly is a blockbuster. It’s made over $460 million at the box office, which is already higher than Oppenheimer. With the combination of popularity and acclaim, this will easily be one of the year’s top contenders and double-digit nominations is possible.

September Forecast
The last four months of the year are characterized by two things: Oscar contenders try to find a berth and Halloween/Thanksgiving/Christmas releases poise to do tons of box office business. The problem for those films search for Oscar gold is that September is one of the worst for selecting prime Oscar contenders. Even at that, this year seems to have a dearth of contenders. Of the three films I want to highlight, two of them are animated and one is a limited release. It’s difficult to imagine a more depressed turnout. Still, at least one of them is likely a sure thing. We’ll tackle that one last.

First up is the non-animated Ha-Chan, Shake Your Booty!. Winner of an award for directing at the Sundance film festival, one must consider this film a contender. It stars Oscar nominee Rinko Kikuchi, which gives it some standing but Kikuchi was last nominated in 2006. That’s twenty years of no Oscar potential making her presence unimportant. Sundance isn’t the best festival for filtering into the Oscars but there’s some history there. The problem is Japan has a surfeit of choices for their submission this year but Ha-Chan‘s 77 at MetaCritic is far enough below the aforementioned The Samurai and the Prisoner that I suspect Japan is more likely to go with a film that recalls one of their greatest filmmakers than one that picked up a single award at Sundance.

Forgotten Island is the latest DreamWorks effort to make a play for Best Animated Feature. Why it’s releasing in September is unknown but it has an inventive premise and lots of bright, colorful characters and settings. The problem is DreamWorks has an uneven history with the Oscars. While they can certainly score nods, they have struggled in the past and there’s no guarantee this one will make it through. Still, with a rather disappointing number of contenders, it’s still in the running and we’ll know more once critics weigh in.

Lastly is Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom, the latest Aardman Animation effort. This is one of the most storied studios in the history of the Best Animated Feature category, landing nominations for films that didn’t seem likely to get them at first. You can’t count it out at all unless critics really trounce the film, which doesn’t seem likely considering their product history. Still, this is a sequel and sequels struggle with Oscar voters so we’ll have to see how the film performs with both critics and the box office for determining if it’s a slam-dunk nominee or an also-ran.

And that’s all I have for this month. Let’s read what Pete and Thomas have to say.

Pete Patrick’s Thoughts

July Retrospective
The only two July releases that will matter in the long run are Christopher Nolan’s version of Homer’s The Odyssey and the Tom Holland led Spider-Man: Brand New Day, the latest and biggest hit yet in the franchise.

The Odyssey will factor heavily in year-end awards and the upcoming Oscar race, and both will undoubtedly end up at or near the top of the year’s top ten box-office successes.

September Forecast
Nothing of note is opening theatrically in September.  The next major film releasing theatrically is Digger on October 2.  However, the various film festivals including New York will be showing some of the year’s most highly anticipated films ahead of their official release dates.  New York’s schedule includes Fjord which doesn’t open officially until October 9, Godzilla Minus Zero which won’t open officially until November, and Behemoth! and The Debut which don’t open officially until December.

Thomas La Tourrette’s Thoughts

July Retrospective
There was not much released in July that was likely to score nominations. Really only one film.

The big film of the month, and perhaps the year, was The Odyssey by Christopher Nolan. It will be a major player with nominations for picture, director, actor, supporting actor, supporting actress, adapted screenplay, visual effects, sound, costume design, and production design. It has been a box office juggernaut, loved by critics and by audiences. It is likely to be the most nominated film of the year.

September Forecast
September does not have much being released that looks likely to play at the Oscars. I guess the studios are waiting until October or later to release their prestige films. Two animated films look to be the only releases of note.

Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom is a film that Variety favors for a nomination, but that series does not often do well at the Oscars. Aardman films are well-liked by audiences, but perhaps because ones like this are inspired by a television series, they often end up overlooked.

Forgotten Island is a much more likely animated feature nominee. DreamWorks Animation has won three Oscars in the past, but most of those were long ago. They look likely to pick up a nomination this year, but a win is not to be expected.