We’re looking at Oscar contenders as they release and trying to determine which films have potential and which have wasted it. Let’s look back at the month of September and see what films succeeded and faltered. Then we’ll look forward to November and see what has some potential.

Wesley Lovell’s Thoughts

September Retrospective
Looking back at September, there weren’t a lot of films with Oscar chances and while I only had three on my forecast list, I expand that to five with my retrospective list. I’m going to break the group in two with the limited releases going first and then the wide releases finishing things up.

Ha-Chan, Shake Your Booty! came out of Sundance this year with a directing award but has been incommunicado since. Although it finally made its appearance in September, its meager box office performance and faded buzz seem to have cost it a great deal. With a good but unexceptional score from MetaCritic, I’d slot this one as also-ran at this point but the critics could resurrect its chances.

The other limited release, one I didn’t forecast, was Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother. It had the second highest MetaCritic score of this group and had a pretty strong Rotten Tomatoes score suggesting it has some strong critical support. It premiered at the later festivals, which ensures it wouldn’t be forgotten by Oscar season. I’m struggling to find many places where the film could contend but at least pencil it in for some consideration.

The first of the three wide releases is the other film I didn’t discuss back in August. Primetime has decent reviews but apart from Robert Pattinson’s lead performance, not much about the film has been talked about as a potential Oscar contender. Cinematography and Film Editing are the only craft categories that seem possible but I doubt anyone but Pattinson will make a play for a nomination and I’d say he’s running behind quite a few other competitors.

Forgotten Island had solid reviews, including at 73 from MetaCritic and a 95% from Rotten Tomatoes. With so many other animated films this year failing to live quite up to expectations, it was a solid performer with critics. The problem is that DreamWorks’ latest Oscar contender had a mediocre run at the box office. That could hinder its chances at a nomination but the strong reviews will certainly help.

Lastly is likely to be one of the year’s most celebrated animated films. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom comes from legendary studio Aardman and has a strong good 80 from MetaCritic and staggering 99% at Rotten Tomatoes. Some thought this kid-friendly stop-motion sequel might not be much of an Oscar contender but Aardman has scored nominations nearly every time they’ve released a film and right now, I don’t see this one missing the list, though a win is likely out of the question.

On to November, the second biggest month for Oscar-contending releases of the year.

November Forecast
There are a ton of potential contenders this month with twelve films that have at least some chance at getting Oscar nominations. To break them down a bit, I want to separate them into wide releases, limited majors, and limited minors. We’ll start with the wide releases since those are the ones with the most to lose from a box office flop.

Godzilla Minus Zero is the sequel to Best Visual Effects Oscar winner Godzilla Minus One. Early word says the film is bigger and bolder than its predecessor, which means a Best Visual Effects nomination is in the cards. Considering the weakness of this year’s visual effects contenders, I’d say it’s becoming a more likely possibility the more of them flop at the box office.

A one-time box office draw, Ebenezer: A Christmas Carol is the biggest potential return vehicle for Johnny Depp. After his very public divorce where some very disturbing things emerged, he’s been struggling to find something that gets him in front of audiences. His refusal to work with any studio that didn’t stand by him is costing him some major opportunities and this one doesn’t look like it will help much. It’s still possible but the film’s only potential nominations come in the craft category where Makeup & Hairstyling, Production Design, and Costume Design are all possible but only the first seems like a safe bet at this point.

Finally, is one of the least hyped, most ignored Walt Disney release in decades. At this point, there should have been a dozen trailers and dozens of posters but there’s been absolutely nothing. Is this film being dumped in the pre-Thanksgiving window in hopes that it flops? Right now, there seems to be absolutely no support from the Florida-based studio. Perhaps that’s because it was filmed in Vancouver instead of that headquarters that’s causing the disparity. Whatever the reason, its Best Animated Feature potential rests entirely on whether the film swims against a tide that Disney has set against it.

The first up of the minor limited releases coming in November is Club Kid. Buzz has slowly built around this little film and while critics so far have liked it, its limited marketing and extremely late festival release may suggest the film doesn’t have the legs it’s going to need to compete at the Oscars. Although I expect it to score some GALECA nominations, I’m bearish on its Oscar chances.

Next up is James Gray’s latest, Paper Tiger. Starring Oscar nominees Adam Driver and Scarlett Johansson, reunited for the first time since their Marriage Story citations back in 2019, the crime thriller also stars Miles Teller. Gray’s been on the verge of Oscar attention for years now and has yet to materialize a major player. Could this be his year? It all depends on whether the film gets a lot of precursor attention. This is the kind of film that largely goes unnoticed and I could imagine two scenarios. Precursors give it a smattering of attention but it fails to run the board; or it scores dozens of nominations from each group and becomes a major player. It’s hard to know for sure which way it will go but based on the acclaim prior Gray films have gotten and Oscars ignorance of those, I’m considering it minor at present.

Premiering at Berlinale early this year, Josephine was thought to be Channing Tatum’s best chance at Oscar consideration ever. The problem is, the film didn’t build much buzz after its festival bow and has waited so long for release that it’s competing against a number of bigger, later festival successes that are casting very long shadows. With Best Actor being stiff competition this year, I’d imagine this film is going to be forgotten and probably faster than most.

All of a Sudden is the latest film from Oscar nominee Ryūsuke Hamaguchi whose Drive My Car was an Oscar sensation four years ago with nominations four nominations, including Best Picture, and the award for Best International Feature. Hamaguchi’s filmography is relatively paltry in terms of its Oscar contention but this film was well received after its Cannes bow but has since dwindled in importance thanks to its late release. If the film runs the board through the precursors, it could be equally successful but with the likes of Fjord, Fatherland, and La Bola Negra dominating major category, there might not be enough space for a fourth non-English language contender in the running. We’ll have to see how it performs.

Lastly is 14th, Ava DuVernay’s new documentary follow up to 2016’s 13th. As with that film, DuVernay’s documentary looks at the 14th amendment and the persistent fight over birthright citizenship and what it meant to the Black community in the years following the American Civil War. I don’t often follow documentary films in this feature but with 13th scoring an Oscar nomination and the timeliness of this film’s subject, I can’t help but think it may be a solid player for this year’s Oscars. We’ll have to see if buzz can build on it after the New York Film Festival premier.

In roughly the order I feel they will contend for the Oscars, here are the four major limited releases coming out next month. Starting things off, we have Being Heumann, Sian Heder’s follow up to her Best Picture Oscar winner CODA. Tackling a different form of disability, the film looks at Judy Heumann’s (Ruth Madeley) 1977 fight for accessibility and equal rights laws in San Francisco. The film built solid buzz following its Toronto debut and many are hoping Heder’s latest film will become a player at the Oscars. There may be some resentment of CODA‘s clean sweep five years ago, a film that came out of nowhere and built major momentum at just the right moment during Oscar voting. This time, there’s plenty of potential build up and the film’s been well regarded enough to compete but it’s a tough competition this year and I could easily see the film missing out.

Andrew Scott was unfairly ignored for his bravura performance in All of Us Strangers but with a far more dramatic and impactful role in Elsinore, he may finally manage an Oscar breakthrough. The film may struggle to score nominations outside of his performance but I wouldn’t be surprised if it quietly accumulated a handful of nods, including one for Adapted Screenplay. I’m not sure he can win the Oscar but he will definitely be in the running but first he must score the nomination and he’s got a lot of stiff competition to beat out first.

A crowd pleaser that’s also a critic pleaser is a rare combination. I Play Rocky is one of those films. The behind-the-scenes journey of Sylvester Stallone’s attempt to become a success and his fight to get 1976’s Best Picture winner Rocky made has all the qualities a major Oscar player should need. Surprisingly, it came in second for the audience award at Toronto, which dims a bit of its shine but I can see this one being a major player this year, just like it’s subject was fifty years ago.

And now we come to one of the surest-firest (sorry/not sorry) of surefire Oscar contenders. Martin McDonagh is Oscar royalty. After his nomination for In Bruges, he’s slowly built up an envious resume that includes near-Best Picture-winning films like Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and Banshees of Inisherin. Will this finally be his year? Doubtful, but that doesn’t mean Wild Horse Nine won’t be the strongest Oscar contender of the year among limited releases. It seems assured of several nominations and wins for Best Actor (John Malkovich) and Best Original Screenplay (McDonagh) wouldn’t be at all surprising at this point and Best Picture is a likely nominee but an unlikely winner at this juncture.

That’s all I have to say for this month, let’s hear what Pete and Thomas have to say and then we’ll see you next month for our final forecast of 2026.

Pete Patrick’s Thoughts

September Retrospective
I said that nothing of note would open in September and nothing did.  The only excitement surrounding new films came from the various film festivals still running.

November Forecast
The big one in November is film festival favorite Wild Horse Nine opening on November 6. Martin McDonagh’s latest film stars John Malkovich, who is already being talked of as the one to beat for this year’s Best Actor Oscar, along with former Oscar winner Sam Rockwell and the never nominated Steve Buscemi, both of whom could pick up Supporting Actor nominations along with Best Picture, Director, Actor, and other nominations.

Also opening on November 6 is a highly antipated animated version of The Cat in the Hat.

Friday the 13th brings us the latest version of Dickens’ A Christmas Carol called Ebenezer from horror director Ti West starring Johnny Depp as Scrooge. The cast includes Daisy Ridley, Sam Claflin, Rupert Grint as Bob Cratchet and Ian McKellen as Marley’s Ghost.

November 20, the Friday before Thanksgiving, brings in The Way of the Warrior Kid from director McG starring Chris Pratt as an elite Navy seal helping to build confidence in his bullied nephew (Belfast’s Jude Hill).

Also opening November 20 is The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping from director Francis Lawrence with an all-star cast including Jennifer Lawrence, McKenna Grace, Jesse Plemons, Ralph Fiennes, Elle Fanning, Josh Hutcherson, Kieran Culkin, and Glenn Close.

Thanksgiving Eve, November 25, brings in three potential box-office hits in David Fincher’s The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth written by Quentin Tarantino with Brad Pitt reprising his Oscar-winning role from Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood; Focker-in-Law with Ben Stiller and Robert De Niro reprising their roles from Meet the Fockers; and Disney’s animated Hexed.

Thomas La Tourrette’s Thoughts

September Retrospective
September had surprisingly little being released that looked likely to play at the Oscars. Two animated films were the only releases of note.

Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom is a film that Variety favors for a nomination, but that series does not often do well at the Oscars. Aardman films are well-liked by audiences, but perhaps because ones like this are inspired by a television series, they often end up overlooked.

Forgotten Island is a much more likely animated feature nominee. DreamWorks Animation has won three Oscars in the past, but most of those were long ago. They look likely to pick up a nomination this year, but a win is not to be expected.

November Forecast
There are quite a number of November releases that will pick up Oscar nominations. Though at this point, Wild Horse Nine is the only one that looks to score nominations across the board. All of a Sudden could get a number as well, but most of the others look likely to just pick up a mere one or two.

Godzilla Minus Zero could easily join its predecessor as a nominee for visual effects.

Being Heumann is the type of film that could pick up nominations for picture and adapted screenplay.

Club Kid is being talked up about possible picture, actor, and screenplay nominations, though I am not certain how many it might actually get. Indie films get buzz, but do not always come through in the end.

Wild Horse Nine is poised to be a major player, with picture, director, actor, supporting actor, original screenplay, and casting nominations for sure, with perhaps a few tech noms as well. Director Martin McDonagh has become a reliable source of nominations, and I expect this movie to continue that trend.

I Play Rocky might either do well, or it could just miss out at the Oscars. It is on the cusp for picture, actor, and original screenplay.

Likewise, Paper Tiger might score a few nominations but looks more likely to miss out on them.

Elsinore has suddenly put Andew Scott high on the list for a best actor nomination. Picture, screenplay, and supporting actress are possible but not as likely right now.

Josephine had some early buzz but seems to be falling off the radar, so it is likely to end up with nothing.

Director Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s Drive My Car got four major Oscar nominations and one win, and he may well repeat that feat with All of Sudden, which also could claim a couple of acting noms.

With a screenplay by Quentin Tarantino and direction by David Fincher, The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth is a film that might do well. Or it may be perceived as an unnecessary sequel. It is still a mystery at this point and it will be interesting to see how it is received.