84th Predictions: November

Every month, we’re posting our predictions for the 84th Oscars. It’s now November and the picture is beginning to clear up, though there are many more surprises still in store. No one knows what’s going to happen between now and Nominations morning, so let’s just get ready to have some fun in the meantime. We shall see how things go from here on out. And with critics groups giving out prizes starting next week, we wanted to give this one last stab before they begin.

The Academy changed their nominations procedures for both Best Animated Feature and Best Picture. This created a bit of a quandary for us as the only way we could adequately share our predictions while giving the possibility of fewer than 10 (Picture) or 5 (Animated Feature) nominees. Now, the rules are different for each category. Animated Feature could have anywhere from 0 to 5 nominations depending on the quantity of animated features in release. With the number of entries, Animated Feature is likely set to feature 5 full nominations.

The rules for Best Picture are a bit more complex, To get a nomination for Best Picture, you must have at least 5% of the total vote. This isn’t necessarily just first place votes as the preferential balloting method the Academy uses, which is unnecessarily complex, can put votes into a film’s column even if they are second- or third-place votes. How this will all play out is a mystery to us. All we do know is that Best Picture could have anywhere from 5 to 10 nominations. There could be 5 or 7 or 8 or 10…we won’t know until the nominations are announced. Each of our contributors selected ten films for Best Picture and ranked them in the order they think the film is most likely to get an Oscar nomination. We then totaled the results and ranked the final list by our totals. 10 points for a first place vote, 9 for a second and so forth. In addition, we still color-code each predictions so you know how many of us put that contender on our lists. Below are the results of our labor.

KEY:

Appears on Three Lists
Appears on Two Lists

Wesley Lovell Peter Patrick Tripp Burton Wes Huizar

(New) = New Prediction
(M) = May Prediction
(A) = August Prediction
(S) = September Prediction
(N) = November Prediction

BEST PICTURE

(28) War Horse (10)(M) (10)(M) (8)(M)
(26) The Descendants (9)(M) (7)(M) (10)(S)
(24) Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (8)(M) (9)(A) (7)(M)
(22) The Artist (New)(5)(N) (8)(A) (9)(M)
(17) The Help (7)(A) (New)(4)(N) (New)(6)(N)
(12) Midnight in Paris (6)(A) (New)(3)(N) (3)(A)
(7) Hugo (New)(5)(N) (New)(2)(N)
(6) Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (6)(M)
(6) The Tree of Life (1)(M) (5)(M)
(5) J. Edgar (3)(M) (2)(A)
(5) Moneyball (1)(S) (4)(M)
(4) Young Adult (4)(M)
(2) The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (New)(2)(N)
(1) The Iron Lady (New)(1)(N)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

The Adventures of Tintin (S) (New)(N) (New)(N)
Arthur Christmas (A)
Cars 2 (New)(N) (M)
Cat in Paris (New)(N)
Kung Fu Panda 2 (M)
Puss in Boots (New)(N) (New)(N)
Rango (M) (A) (M)
Rio (A)
Winnie the Pooh (A)

BEST DIRECTOR

Tomas Alfredson – Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (S)
Stephen Daldry – Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (New)(N) (A) (M)
David Fincher – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (New)(N)
Michael Haznavicius – The Arist (A) (New)(N)
Terrence Malick – The Tree of Life (A)
Alexander Payne – The Descendants (New)(N) (M) (New)(N)
Jason Reitman – Young Adult (M)
Steven Spielberg – War Horse (M) (M) (M)

BEST ACTOR

George Clooney – The Descendants (M) (M) (New)(N)
Leonardo DiCaprio – J. Edgar (M) (New)(N) (M)
Jean Dujardin – The Artist (New)(N) (A) (S)
Michael Fassbender – Shame (New)(N)
Gary Oldman – Tinker, Tailor, Soldier Spy (M) (A)
Brad Pitt – Moneyball (S) (S) (S)

BEST ACTRESS

Glenn Close – Albert Nobbs (A) (M) (A)
Viola Davis – The Help (New)(N) (New)(N) (New)(N)
Elizabeth Olsen – Martha Marcy May Marlene (M) (M)
Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady (M) (M) (M)
Charlize Theron – Young Adult (S)
Michelle Williams – My Week with Marilyn (M) (New)(N) (M)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Kenneth Branagh – My Life With Marilyn (M)
Jim Broadbent – The Iron Lady (A)
Albert Brooks – Drive (S) (S)
Michael Fassbender – A Dangerous Method (M)
Robert Forster – The Descendants (S)
Armie Hammer – J. Edgar (M)
Nick Nolte – Warrior (S)
Patton Oswalt – Young Adult (New)(N)
Christopher Plummer – Beginners (M) (M) (M)
Max von Sydow – Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (New)(N) (New)(N) (New)(N)