September 2-4, 2011

Apollo 18

Box Office Prediction: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “This is the kind of horror-esque flick that lives or dies by originality. While there are elements of that in the trailer for the film, it’s hard to see where the film could be too original or expand much on the genre.”
Box Office Results: $17.7 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Can the “found footage” horror genre finally be waning? Let’s hope so.

The Debt

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “This film was pushed out of its Oscar berth last year, so I question whether the film will be able to tickle the fancy of Oscar voters the way Munich did. I’m guessing it will perform poorly at the box office and be mostly forgotten by the Oscar voting period.”
Oscar Results: Other than Jessica Chastain’s name appearing in relation to this and multiple other films, the film has been completely in absentia all precursor season, so it’s chances are done.
Box Office Prediction: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “It’s a risky gamble releasing this on Labor Day weekend. It’s not the kind of film that takes off at the box office. On top of its somewhat dark and quite serious subject matter, the film will be lucky to pull in the art film crowd.”
Box Office Results: $31.2 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] For a small, independent film about a difficult subject without any major star wattage (we love you Helen Mirren, but you aren’t exactly a box office siren), this is a fairly respectable total.

Shark Night 3D

Box Office Prediction: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Two horror films on one weekend should cannibalize business enough to keep either from being much of a success. And this film seemss the weaker of the two covering far less inventive territory than its moon-based companion.”
Box Office Results: $18.9 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Another dud of a horror film. Sure October’s the major horror player, but the genre usually does well outside of it. So much for the 3D/horror mix.

September 9-11, 2011

Bucky Larson: Born to Be a Star

Box Office Prediction: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “It’s an Adam Sandler film without Adam. Sandler Box office disappointment is what I expect.”
Box Office Results: $2.5 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Talk about a film that crashed and burned. I only wish this meant the death of this genre, but it doesn’t.

Contagion

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “This is one of the bigger question marks.this fall. It’s reminiscent of the star-studded flicks of the 1950s-1970s that Oscar somewhat liked and more akin to the disaster films that did modest Oscar business in the Irwin Allen era. Yet, that style of filmmaking hasn’t exacty ignited Oscar voter fancies lately”
Oscar Results: The film’s terrific box office might have boosted its Oscar potential, but the film hasn’t been getting much precursor attention, so it’s probably done.
Box Office Prediction: $55 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “The biggest thing going for the film is its recognizable cast. While the concept has been done before and there’s no question it’s more art house-niche than blockbuster, it could still perform well with audiences looking for a bit more from their thrillers.”
Box Office Results: $75.7 M (still in release)
Thoughts: [Success] The stars did help this medical apocalypse drama find an audience. These numbers are quite spectacular considering it’s not exactly a light subject…never underestimate the power of a good disaster flick.

Warrior

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Boxing. Wrestling. Now mixed martial arts. The Academy hasn’t been unfriendly to this genre, so it could do well. If critics get behind it, Tom Hardy could be a nomination contender and so could the film in several categories, but any wins for this film are unlikely.”
Oscar Results: Apart from some talk that Nick Nolte could get a nomination, the film has gone virtually nowhere with precursor voters. Of course, Editing is still in play, but the film seems to have released too early to have any impact.
Box Office Prediction: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “This reminds me a good deal of Darren Aronofsky’s The Wrestler and a little bit of The Fighter. I don’t know which film this is more likely to perform like at the box office, but I’m leaning towards the lower end. There are no really audience-recognizable names attached, but that may not be much of a hindrance, especially if marketed more like Fighter than Wrestler.”
Box Office Results: $13.7 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] The anemic box office for this film is a bit surprising, but after Real Steel, this more subdued drama just didn’t have the cachet or appeal to do well.

September 16-18, 2011

Drive

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “In the way that The French Connection became a surprise Oscar contender despite a history of the Academy avoiding the genre, this could be provide a new direction for the Academy to go looking for a way to bolster its reputation while remaining hip.”
Oscar Results: I wouldn’t have really thought this was the kind of film the Academy would embrace, so I’m still a little dubious about its Oscar chances, but film critics seem to love it and it’s ended up on a number of prominent nomination sets, so we could see it show up in a handful of categories at the Oscars, but I won’t hold my breath.
Box Office Prediction: $55 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “The heist film has been done more often than it should be in recent years, but that doesn’t stop Hollywood from making more. Yet, Pusher director Nicolas Winding Refn tries to add an artistic twist to the genre with this film that could be a surprise hit with popular Ryan Gosling behind the wheel.”
Box Office Results: $34.7 M (still in release)
Thoughts: [Minor Success] I know I said it would make more, but it’s still something of a success. The slow pacing, the lack of bounteous action sequences and the heavily violent segments just didn’t appeal to a broad enough demographic to really do well.

I Don’t Know How She Does It

Box Office Prediction: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Parker and Kinnear haven’t had much success at the box office with their comedy features, so I don’t know that this one will perform much better.”
Box Office Results: $9.7 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] I didn’t expect it to do well, but I also didn’t expect it to bomb. Sarah Jessica Parker’s romcom career may be coming to an end…hopefully.

The Lion King 3D

Box Office Prediction: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Disney animation’s biggest hand-drawn hit in history attempts to succeed where Beauty and the Beast failed.”
Box Office Results: $94.2 M (still in release)
Thoughts: [Major Success] Who would have imagined that 17 years after the original did huge numbers at the box office that people would be willing to drag their kids to the theater in 3D no less. Still, this measure of success should guarantee heft dividends for next year’s two major 3D relaunches (Beauty and the Beast and Titanic) and further push future endeavors. Of course, this is how Hollywood used to treat big hits before the advent of home video. Re-release it every few years in hopes a new generation would discover it. It may still be a viable path when correctly marketed.

Straw Dogs

Box Office Prediction: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Horror remakes haven’t been making much at the box office lately, especially ones that don’t have very effective advertising.”
Box Office Results: $10.3 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] It may sound like a good idea (it never did), but hopefully this proves them to it wasn’t. Remaking horror isn’t very often successful…it has to be a major film or franchise that everyone is familiar with…and even then it isn’t a good idea.

September 23-25, 2011

Abduction

Box Office Prediction: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “This should be a modest hit when released after several weeks of weak box office performances. While it will have more to do with Twihards coming out in droves for Taylor Lautner, the formulaic nature of the film may keep it from being too big a success.”
Box Office Results: $28.1 M
Thoughts: [Flop] A Taylor Lautner bomb. I had always hoped, but never dared dream. When will this untalented actor stop trying to impress people with his inability to act? One more year until the Twilight madness finally dies…

Dolphin Tale

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “It looks like it could be poignant, but ultimately schmaltzy, which doesn’t really go over well with the Academy. Just ask Disney and their attempts to make Secretariat a player.”
Oscar Results: The film just doesn’t have an Oscar run in it. The film may have been slightly popular, but there are other crowd pleasers more likely to earn Oscar attention.
Box Office Prediction: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “It will be a modest family hit, at least if the advertisinghas much to say about it.”
Box Office Results: $71.1 M (still in release)
Thoughts: [Success] One hell of a success for a film with no critic support and a word of mouth campaign that seemed to work wonders.

Killer Elite

Box Office Prediction: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Jason Statham has not been a potent force at the box office. His pair of major successes were popular in spite of his presence in them. I expect this film to perform about on par with his lower-earning work.”
Box Office Results: $25.1 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Jason Statham continues to prove no one really likes his movies and were it not for The Transporter, he wouldn’t even have a career. Anyone remember Dolph Lundgren? I didn’t think so.

Moneyball

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Whether the box office is spectacular or not, expect there to be some buzz building around the film. And with popular Capote director Bennett Miller at the helm, it could do quite well.”
Oscar Results: As expected, the film has built into something of an Oscar contender poised to pick up several nominations including Best Picture, Actor (Brad Pitt), Adapted Screenplay, Editing and possibly even a nomination for (shudder) Jonah Hill in Supporting Actor.
Box Office Prediction: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “A lot of this film’s success will come down to how well it plays with mass audiences. For every Blind Side and Remember the Titans, there’s a We Are Marshall or Hoosiers. With Brad Pitt in the lead, this period sports drama could do above average for the genre.”
Box Office Results: $74.2 M (still in release)
Thoughts: [Success] Performing right where I expected, the film very much appealed to an audience seldom targeted by big studios. Sure the explosions of summer draw out men, but middle-aged sports enthusiasts aren’t necessarily box office consumers. Here’s proof that they can be.