84th Predictions: Post-SAG/Globe Nominations

From this point until the end of the year, we’ll be taking Guild nominations announcements as impetus to dive into our own predictions. This past week, the Screen Actors Guild announced their nominees for the best performances of 2011. based on this new information, we’re updating our Oscar predictions. The two paragraphs after this discuss information on Best Picture (which we’re partially correlating to the SAG Best Cast category) and Animated Feature (however, we aren’t updating those predictions this week). This update’s picture of choice represents the sudden definition of Tilda Swinton as a nomination contender, an occurrence we had not expected until SAG gave her candidacy legitimacy.

The Academy changed their nominations procedures for both Best Animated Feature and Best Picture. This created a bit of a quandary for us as the only way we could adequately share our predictions while giving the possibility of fewer than 10 (Picture) or 5 (Animated Feature) nominees. Now, the rules are different for each category. Animated Feature could have anywhere from 0 to 5 nominations depending on the quantity of animated features in release. With the number of entries, Animated Feature is likely set to feature 5 full nominations.

The rules for Best Picture are a bit more complex, To get a nomination for Best Picture, you must have at least 5% of the total vote. This isn’t necessarily just first place votes as the preferential balloting method the Academy uses, which is unnecessarily complex, can put votes into a film’s column even if they are second- or third-place votes. How this will all play out is a mystery to us. All we do know is that Best Picture could have anywhere from 5 to 10 nominations. There could be 5 or 7 or 8 or 10…we won’t know until the nominations are announced. Each of our contributors selected ten films for Best Picture and ranked them in the order they think the film is most likely to get an Oscar nomination. We then totaled the results and ranked the final list by our totals. 10 points for a first place vote, 9 for a second and so forth. In addition, we still color-code each predictions so you know how many of us put that contender on our lists. Below are the results of our labor.

KEY:

Appears on Three Lists
Appears on Two Lists

Wesley Lovell Peter Patrick Tripp Burton

(New) = New Prediction
(M) = May Prediction
(A) = August Prediction
(S) = September Prediction
(N) = November Prediction
(SAG) = Post-SAG Prediction

BEST PICTURE

(29) The Artist (10)(N) (10)(A) (9)(M)
(27) The Descendants (8)(M) (9)(M) (10)(S)
(18) The Help (9)(A) (1)(N) (8)(N)
(17) War Horse (4)(M) (8)(M) (5)(M)
(16) Moneyball (New)(7)(SAG) (5)(S) (4)(M)
(14) Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (5)(M) (7)(A) (2)(M)
(13) Hugo (6)(N) (7)(N)
(12) Midnight in Paris (3)(A) (3)(N) (6)(A)
(9) The Tree of Life (6)(M) (3)(M)
(4) Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (4)(M)
(2) Drive (New)(2)(SAG)
(2) J. Edgar (2)(A)
(1) Young Adult (1)(M)

BEST ACTOR

George Clooney – The Descendants (M) (M) (N)
Leonardo DiCaprio – J. Edgar (M) (M)
Jean Dujardin – The Artist (N) (A) (S)
Michael Fassbender – Shame (N) (New)(SAG)
Gary Oldman – Tinker, Tailor, Soldier Spy (M) (A)
Brad Pitt – Moneyball (S) (S) (S)

BEST ACTRESS

Glenn Close – Albert Nobbs (A) (M) (A)
Viola Davis – The Help (N) (N) (N)
Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady (M) (M) (M)
Tilda Swinton – We Need to Talk About Kevin (New)(SAG) (New)(SAG) (New)(SAG)
Michelle Williams – My Week with Marilyn (M) (N) (M)