NOVEMBER 4, 2012

Tower Heist

Box Office Prediction: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Solid. Although neither have been box office magnets in the last few years, both Eddie Murphy and Ben Stiller together in a comedy caper should draw decent interest at the box office.”
Box Office Results: $78.0 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] The cast really should have meant a bigger box office bite, but it didn’t. The cast should have guaranteed more money, but didn’t. All-in-all, the total may be satisfactory to some, but not to all.

A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas

Box Office Prediction: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Modest. The first two films, although not box office juggernauts did suitable business for the type of film. This one, with added 3D ticket prices (and it sure looks like it will be fun in 3D), and the growing stoner-hungry fanbase, it could do moderately good business.”
Box Office Results: $35.1 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Hoping to turn on anti-Christmas viewers, Harold & Kumar’s latest outing was hardly impressive in its theatrical run despite decent reviews from critics.

NOVEMBER 11, 2012

11-11-11

Box Office Prediction: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Modest. For horror fans (and this one whose birthday is also that day), this should be the perfect post-Halloween scare. Bousman’s work has often obtained cult status (see Repo! The Genetic Opera), so this could be another of those potential hits.”
Box Office Results: $32.8 K
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] The film never really opened on November 11, but did on a subsequent, unexceptional date and managed to earn a genre-respectable total. But it really wasn’t that exciting considering the potential it had.

Immortals

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Art Direction, Costume Design, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Visual Effects are the only categories it will likely have a chance at and I don’t think any of them are going to work out.”
Oscar Results: Tarsem’s film made no inroads in the precursors, thus disabling it from making any impact on the Oscar race.
Box Office Prediction: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Modest. The film has plenty of visual elements that will draw fans of movies like 300, but Singh is a rather curious director and repeat business may not be in the cards.”
Box Office Results: $83.5 M
Thoughts: [Success] I guess it just goes to show that the stylized sword-and-sandal genre still has some teeth to it.

J. Edgar

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “There’s little doubt that this film is one of the big contenders for this year’s Oscars. Eastwood has seldom not entered the Oscar race with his films and this one, being a period drama about a controversial figure written by another Oscar winner (Dustin Lance Black) and starring Oscar nominees Leonardo DiCaprio and Naomi Watts, and Oscar winner Judi Dench and further boosting the building reputation of budding leading man Armie Hammer, all of whom could be Oscar nominees come January. Add to that potential nominations in Original Score, Editing, Cinematography, Art Direction, Costume Design, Makeup and Sound and you have one of the biggest Oscar flagships of the holiday season.”
Oscar Results: Eastwood isn’t infallible and more than so than ever this year proved it. A film that should have been a slam dunk Oscar contender started out with bad reviews and followed that by a virtual lockout of critics groups and most precursors. A glimmer of hope was left for stars Leonardo DiCaprio and Armie Hammer after their SAG nominations, but those turned out to be flukes.
Box Office Prediction: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Solid. Eastwood’s film has been earning buzz for some time and although it’s starting out in limited release, I expect it to expand later in the year and do good business, especially if it does well with the Academy.”
Box Office Results: $37.3 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] The Clint Eastwood and Leonardo DiCaprio brands should have meant this film was a success, but it turned out to be something of a turkey.

Jack and Jill

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “As with Eddie Murphy’s prosthetic-heavy Nutty Professor, you can’t count out a potential nomination for Best Makeup.”
Oscar Results: Turns out there was no makeup work in the film and the Oscars avoided it as expected; however, the Razzies didn’t giving it every prize this year, an unprecedented achievement.
Box Office Prediction: $120 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “High. Sandler is need of a big box office hit and this looks like the perfect vehicle.”
Box Office Results: $74.2 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] I don’t know why we expect more from Adam Sandler, but this result can’t be seen as anything less than mediocre.

Melancholia

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Some have talked Dunst for a longshot nomination, but I doubt the film will figure in the top tier categories. It does have a chance at Art Direction and Costume Design nominations.”
Oscar Results: The film played a minor role in the precursors, but as expected, the film made it nowhere near the Oscars.
Box Office Prediction: $2 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Lars von Trier created quite a stir at Cannes this year, taking a controversial stance in support of Hitler. The move almost doomed his film with voters, though Kirsten Dunst came out of it with a prize, but that opinion may keep his already impoverish box office totals from getting much better.”
Box Office Results: $3.0 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] The total might not be exceptional, but doing this well for a film that had no Oscar clout and anti-von Trier buzz is still pretty good.

NOVEMBER 18, 2012

Breaking Dawn, Part 1

Box Office Prediction: $315 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Terrific. Each prior film has increased its box office haul over the prior, a rare feat for films in a series (The Two Towers under-performed The Fellowship of the Ring and most of the Harry Potter films couldn’t live up to The Sorcerer’s Stone’s vast riches). I expect this one to do slightly better than its predecessor, but ultimately less business than the final chapter due out next year.”
Box Office Results: $281.3 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] It didn’t quite meet the expections I set for it, but $280+ million is nothing to sneeze at. Whether the final-final film of the franchise can beat this number remains to be seen, but doing close to it won’t be tough.

The Descendants

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Clooney’s received strong notices for his performance in Alexander Payne’s new film. Payne, no stranger to the Oscars, could help the film and its star to several nominations including Best Picture, Actor (Clooney), Supporting Actress (Shailene Woodley), Supporting Actor (Robert Forster) and Adapted Screenplay.”
Oscar Results: The film did incredibly well with the Oscars with Shailene Woodley a surprise omission.
Box Office Prediction: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Modest. While Clooney’s last indie film did modest, but unimpressive business at the box office, this film is more accessible for modern audiences, meaning it could perform quite well in limited release.”
Box Office Results: $82.4 M (Still in limited release)
Thoughts: [Success] It wasn’t a blockbuster, but it definitely wasn’t a dud. a $80+ million total is fairly good for a non-Best Picture winning film.

Happy Feet Two

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “One of a handful of Best Animated Feature contenders, the film won’t likely figure in any other race.”
Oscar Results: While critics were generally lukewarm about a lot of the year’s Oscar contenders, they downright despised this film, which along with its disappointing box office, kept it from making it anywhere close to Oscar.
Box Office Prediction: $250 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Terrific. You don’t create a sequel to a huge box office hit about singing penguins without expecting it to do gonzo box office. Kung Fu Panda 2 notwithstanding, these kinds of films always do well, frequently outperforming their surprisingly high-grossing originals.”
Box Office Results: $64.0 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] The first film was such a blockbuster that they thought lightning could strike twice. But this year’s audiences proved to be fickle towards the animated offerings they were given. Not only did the film flop, it did so in such an extraordinary way that a lot of people felt a bit satisfied after the original film’s sweetness was overblown by its success.

NOVEMBER 23, 2012

Arthur Christmas

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Aardman has been a mainstay of the Academy for years since Nick Park debuted Wallace and Gromit in A Grand Day Out back in 1989. With six nominations under the company’s belt (and 4 Oscars to boot), you can bet this will be a strong contender for Best Animated Feature this year.”
Oscar Results: Did the box office perfromance doom the film to a dismal also-ran non-nomination? Possibly, but it’s clear Academy voters had a whole other rationale behind the films they selected. Let’s also remember that Aardman used to dominate the Animated Short Film category and then unexpectedly lost a few years ago. Something seems to have turned voters off to these films’ successes…or perhaps there are too many DreamWorks voters in the machine now? For whatever reason, in spite of lots of positive reviews, Arthur Christmas was left in the cold on Oscar nomination morning.
Box Office Prediction: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Aardman animation is no stranger to the U.S. box office. Chicken Run topped $100 million in its 2000 run while Wallace & Gromit: Curse of the Were-Rabbit dis a more modest $56 million in 2005. Six years later, the stop-motion masters bring a Christmas story to the big screen, which should do well over Thanksgiving and proceed through the holiday season with little effort.”
Box Office Results: $46.5 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] It performed on par with past Aardman outings, but for a Christmas-themed film from a studio that has a lot of support, the total should have been much higher.

The Artist

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “The film could do extremely well with the Academy. A black-and-white silent feature hasn’t been seen in so many years that history buffs will likely want to put it into the running simply to show that the Hollywood machine can support long-expired modes of filmmaking. Whether the film’s any good or not, it will still be the talk of awards season and nominations for Picture, Director, Actor (Jean Dujardin), Actress (Missi Pyle), Supporting Actor (John Goodman, James Cromwell), Original Screenplay, Original Score, Editing, Cinematography, Art Direction and Costume Design could all be in the works.”
Oscar Results: The film’s acting group of Missi Pyle, James Cromwell and John Goodman didn’t even enter the conversation, but the rest of my predictions: Picture, Director, Actor (Jean Dujardin), Original Screenplay, Original Score, Editing, Cinematography, Art Direction and Costume Design; however, one other addition began weeding its way into our consciousness enough to earn a slot: Best Supporting Actress Berenice Bejo. Not only did it dominate precursor season, but it held strong through Oscar season winning five prizes for Picture, Director, Actor (Dujardin), Original Score and Costume Design.
Box Office Prediction: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Modest. For a cinematic experience, film enthusiasts will flock to the first major silent feature since Mel Brooks’ Silent Movie in 1976. The festival circuit has yielded great interest in the film and many are talking big things awards-wise for the film. The box office however, will remain limited.”
Box Office Results: $43.5 M (Still in limited release)
Thoughts: [Minor Success] I’d call it unexceptional if it weren’t for the fact that this film is both black-and-white and silent, which turns off most of the marketplace. While it got a gentle bump from its Oscar haul, the film isn’t anything close to a blockbuster.

A Dangerous Method

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Before the film opened to satisfactory, if unexceptional, notices, it was talked up in several categories including Best Picture, Actor (Fassbender), Actress (Knightley), Supporting Actor (Mortensen), Adapted Screenplay, Original Score, Editing, Cinematography, Art Direction, Costume Design and Makeup. Now its chances have dwindled to consideration in mainly the creative categories, though upper level nods could still happen.”
Oscar Results: It’s amazing what a couple of months meant. Not only did the film implode entirely, but it didn’t even manage nominations for Art Direction and Costume Design, which should have been an automatic-nomination for a film like this.
Box Office Prediction: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Modest. For an art house film, it should do suitably well of interest in its Oscar-caliber work. Any cross-over potential to general audiences will be lost in the film’s period setting.”
Box Office Results: $5.7 M (Still in limited release)
Thoughts: [Flop] Although I wanted to call the film a major flop, I can’t really do that for an indie film. Sure, the film had some well known actors in it, including Keira Knightley, but the film never made it past art houses.

Hugo

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “The film has many chances at nomination, a lot of which depend on how well its received by critics. Although an unfinished version was shown to positive reaction at the New York Film Festival, the film has not screened fully for critics. Cinematography, Art Direction, Costume Design, Makeup and Visual Effects are all solid bets even before the full film is shown, but Best Picture, Director and Adapted Screenplay could also enter play if audiences and critics alike love it.”
Oscar Results: In my box office preview article (not my actual final predictions), I predicted seven of its nominations: Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Art Direction, Costume Design and Visual Effects. It did not get a Makeup nod as I expected, but it did pick up nominations for Original Score, Editing, Sound Mixing and Sound Editing. It even walked home with five Oscars: Cinematography, Art Direction, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Visual Effects.
Box Office Prediction: $200 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Solid. Scorsese hasn’t really been a box office magnet in the past, but this children’s film, supposedly exploring the capabilities of 3D technology, could become a holiday classic if it catches on with audiences the way I expect it will.”
Box Office Results: $73.7 M (Still in limited release)
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] A film so clearly aimed at children during the holiday season should have done better business than this, but it’s Martin Scorsese who’s never done a kids pic before, so the total isn’t too bad, though considering it was nominated for several Oscars and won five should have given it a boost that it just hasn’t gotten.

The Muppets

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “The franchise hasn’t been known for its Oscar potential, though any one of the original songs in the film could earn Oscar nominations in this year’s seemingly unpopulated category.”
Oscar Results: And by any “one” nominee, it meant only one: “Man or Muppet”, the song least expected to be the lone nominee from the film. And guess what? It won.
Box Office Prediction: $90 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Terrific. Loading Thanksgiving weekend up with no less than three potential box office hits is a dangerous affair. A new Muppet adventure hasn’t been seen since 1999’s box office failure Muppets from Space, but even before then they were hardly box office draws. The film will still do good box office, but against the likes of Hugo and Arthur Christmas, the movie’s probably going to take a back seat.”
Box Office Results: $88.6 M (Still in limited release)
Thoughts: [Minor Success] It could have been a flop or it could have been a blockbuster. What it was was successful, but not franchise-defying successful.

My Week with Marilyn

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Michelle Williams is earning terrific notices in the role of iconic Marilyn Monroe, so expect her to be a strong contender. Kenneth Branagh’s also picking up solid reviews, so he could be a nominee. The film, however, isn’t playing very well with critics and will not likely make an appearance in many other categories, though Art Direction and Costume Design are always possible with a film set during that period.”
Oscar Results: Both Michelle Williams and Kenneth Branagh earned Oscar nominations for the film, but Art Direction and Costume Design nominations did not materialize.
Box Office Prediction: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Limited. There aren’t enough Monroe fans out there who will take a chance on this kind of movie. I expect it to perform weakly among general audiences, but well among cineastes and film enthusiasts.”
Box Office Results: $14.6 M (Still in limited release)
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] It performed lower than my expectations, but carried home no Oscars to give it a boost.

Piranha 3DD

Box Office Prediction: $20 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. A pseudo-cult hit, the original Piranha 3D did terrible box office and against these other more popular films, an unimpressive total is sure to follow.”
Box Office Results: DID NOT RELEASE