Nothing on the slate for April seems like it has blockbuster potential, but February and March didn’t look like breakout months either, yet look how they’ve turned out. So, my estimates are going to still be a bit conservative, but I’ll do my best to anticipate success.

April 6, 2012

American Reunion

Premise: The teens of American Pie are attending their high school reunion. Will it be just like old times or have they matured beyond their crazy antics of the past?
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Expectations: Unknown. It’s been 11 years since the last American Pie film was released and it did better-than-the-original numbers. Yet, 11 years is a long time to go without a big screen outing, so it’s not easily quantifiable if this will be a hit or not. I’m going out on a limb and predicting it will do quite well with people curious to see where the gang has been for the last decade.

Titanic 3D

Premise: James Cameron’s Best Picture-winning Oscar epic Titanic is being re-rendered for 3D and rereleased to theaters in hopes of giving audiences a new look at an old classic.
Box Office Prospects: $120 M
Expectations: Strong. Although the 3D conversion craze is going to hit its plateau this year, I think. There’s something old fashioned about this release strategy. Before home video, popular films were often given sporadic re-releases so new generations could experience a timeless classic. Studios don’t need the excuse to do it, but with so many people watching these old movies on the small screen after they’ve left the theater, it’s hard to find a way to draw people back. 3D is that excuse and it seems to be working.

April 13, 2011

The Cabin in the Woods

Premise: A group of teens find themselves trapped in an isolated cabin where technological devices frighten and threaten their lives.
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Expectations: Weak. It seems like a fresh concept, but that doesn’t always work for horror films, especially when they don’t deal with the supernatural or the religious. Still, my hunch is that being new won’t stop it from looking stale to most horror fans, leading it to a lackluster opening and final tally. I could be surprised, though.

The Lady

Premise: Michelle Yeoh stars as Burmese democracy champion Aung Suu Kyi, imprisoned and threatened for her stances while trying to bring about revolution peacefully.
Box Office Prospects: $3 M
Expectations: Mediocre. The film was Oscar-eligible last year and didn’t get enough attention, so it doesn’t seem like the film has what it takes to do more than perfunctory art house business.

Movie 43 (not pictured at right)

Premise: A series of comic vignettes directed by several distinct voices.
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Expectations: Weak. The film doesn’t even have a title, one month prior to release (unless they stick with the generic). There’s been very little promotion and short films strung together into a pseudo-narrative haven’t done big box office. Yet, there’s the possibility its stars could draw a few curious people to the theater and with a last-minute push of advertising, it could still perform adequately for its style.

Monsieur Lazhar

Premise: A grade school teacher returns from Algeria with a secret, but finds solace in the education of young minds.
Box Office Prospects: $2 M
Expectations: Mediocre. It may have an Oscar nomination, but that doesn’t mean anything when it isn’t also a winner. The current winner has only amassed about $4 million, so you shouldn’t even expect that here.

The Three Stooges

Premise: Long after the deaths of the original Three Stooges, studios are bringing them back for a new blockbuster motion picture.
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Expectations: Low. This movie has potential bomb written all over it. Why try to recapture what made the Three Stooges special? Greed, obviously, but fans of the Stooges are likely to avoid the film out of a sense of loyalty and new audiences probably won’t get what’s so great about them unless it’s The Farrelly Bros. turn it into an unnecessary gross-out comedy, then it could be huge, but disappointing to anyone who expects better.

April 20, 2012

Chimpanzee

Premise: DisneyNature presents its annual Earth Day documentary about the most frequently filmed primate (other than humans).
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Expectations: Low. After Earth stormed on the scene with an impressive $32 million (impressive for a nature documentary, of course), DisneyNature has released a new Earth Day film every year. The box office numbers have continuously decreased, but I expect the $15 million range will be where it all tapers to.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Lockout

Premise: A wrongly convicted man is given the chance for freedom if he can rescue the president’s daughter from a secure remote space penal colony.
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Expectations: Low. The concept is so unexciting that it could sell a lot of tickets. But sci-fi has to be done really well to be a hit and the trailer just doesn’t give me high expectations.

The Lucky One

Premise: Having survived three tours of duty in Iraq, a young marine goes in search of the woman he believes to have been his good luck charm.
Box Office Prospects: $70 M
Expectations: Modest. Nicholas Spark has done quite well at the box office, but his totals are always sub-$100 million. And it takes a fairly strong lead to make that happen. Zac Efron is not that kind of lead, though the premise may be just enough to draw in the money and make it Efron’s best starring performance (box office wise) yet.

Think Like a Man

Premise: Four men try to turn the tables on their significant others after they discover their women have been playing them using Steve Harvey’s advice.
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Expectations: Mediocre. It’s a niche film for a niche audience that might play well, but won’t play to everyone, which will mean a lot to its overall box office performance.

April 27, 2012

The Five-Year Engagement

Premise: A newly engaged couple finds work and other responsibilities slowly pushing off their engagement to the point they aren’t sure if they’ll ever tie the knot.
Box Office Prospects: $55 M
Expectations: Mediocre. Neither Emily Blunt or Jason Segel have proven they can make a film a box office hit and the trailer doesn’t even look that funny.

The Pirates! Band of Misfits

Premise: A famous, bumbling pirate captain struggles in his effort to win a prestigious award for best pirate.
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Expectations: Modest. Aardman has never been the behemoth at the box office that Walt Disney, DreamWorks or Pixar have been, so a $50 million total would be about on par for their previous works.
Oscar Prospects: I had though Aardman had a lock on an Oscar nomination last year, but didn’t, so at this point, I’m not sure if this one can hang on ten months.

The Raven

Premise: A clever serial killer uses the works of Edgar Allan Poe to taunt the famed novelist to see if he can solve one of his own mysteries.
Box Office Prospects: $70 M
Expectations: Modest. The combination of genre thriller and murder mystery should help The Raven crossover where The Woman in Black could not. Escaping genre stereotypes (Woman was advertised as horror while Raven is being identified as mystery) may help the John Cusack starrer perform well at the box office.
Oscar Prospects: While the film isn’t likely to compete in many places, Art Direction and Costume Design cannot be ruled out.

Safe

Premise: A former elite agent takes on three groups, the Chinese Triads, Russian Mafia and corrupt U.S. officials, in an effort to save a young Chinese girl kidnapped by the Triads.
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Expectations: Weak. Unless he stars in films with bigger names than his, Jason Statham is as far from a box office idol as you can get. His best B.O. performance on his own Transporter 2 6 years ago. And that had the benefit of being a sequel to a surprise home video hit. his films average on the low side of $30 million, so I have little expectation he’ll be able to do better this time out. How does this guy keep making movies when no one seems to want to see them.