January 6-8, 2012

The Devil Inside

Box Office Prediction: $10 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Horror hasn’t been igniting the box office lately and we may be in the doldrum period, a time when horror bides its time waiting for a new film to pique interest in the see-sawing genre.”
Box Office Results: $53.2 M
Thoughts: [Success] It’s almost impossible at times to tell what horror films are going to fly and which are going to fail. This one beat my expectations.

January 13-15, 2012

Beauty and the Beast 3D

Box Office Prediction: $85 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “With the success last year of The Lion King, I see little reason why this 3D re-release won’t do just as well, if not better, based on its significance.”
Box Office Results: $47.6 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Showing Disney that 3D conversions aren’t necessarily box office behemoths like The Lion King, this performance is rather disappointing considering how much better it is than King as a film.

Contraband

Box Office Prediction: $55 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “The trailer looks fairly milquetoast, but it’s the kind of movie that draws action buffs to the cinema, though it could just easily be a dud.”
Box Office Results: $66.5 M
Thoughts: [Success] Being overly cautious can mean under-powered predictions, though these numbers seem about on par with what I expected.

Joyful Noise

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Dolly Parton’s original songs for the film could be remembered a year later, but the film itself won’t be.”
Oscar Results: The drubbing by critics and the box office failure suggest the film will have a steep climb to an Original Song nomination, though it could still happen.
Box Office Prediction: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “I expect this to be a fairly moderate hit. With its simple excitement and cross-demographic appeal, a success on the level of Sister Act isn’t expected, but isn’t out of the realm of possibility.”
Box Office Results: $30.9 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] It’s not as though the concept doesn’t have precedent or potential, but the end result has to be a tad disappointing. It could have been a breakout hit, but wasn’t.

January 20-22, 2012

Haywire

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Steven Soderbergh’s films haven’t been popular with the Academy since he won Best Director, so I wouldn’t expect much.”
Oscar Results: Soderbergh has another film releasing this year that will likely overshadow this one. Only critics can save this film now.
Box Office Prediction: $80 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “The trailer looks pretty awesome and audiences could use a strong female assassin to follow. It could be a modest success.”
Box Office Results: $18.9 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Proving that action doesn’t draw an audience if it’s not fast-paced enough. Cerebral action films just aren’t the public’s taste.

Red Tails

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “You don’t release Oscar contenders in January…unless they already have big promise. This one does not.”
Oscar Results: Could it still compete? I doubt it. The barely sub-$50 million total doesn’t speak highly of a carry-to-the-end hit.
Box Office Prediction: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Are audiences really looking for a film about the Tuskegee Airmen? There’s already been a successful small screen effort and positioning it against another obviously action-heavy film may be a bad move.”
Box Office Results: $49.9 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] I had expected the film to bomb. After all, the TV movie struck me as a more successful endeavor, yet audiences still turned out for the film.

Underworld Awakening

Box Office Prediction: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “The prior films did ok with the box office (enough to earn three sequels?), so this should perform on the same level regardless of whether it’s in 3D or not.”
Box Office Results: $62.3 M
Thoughts: [Success] This franchise may never end. More so than the Saw films, the Underworld films seem to be doing very well with age. They are critic-proof.

Coriolanus

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Vanessa Redgrave is considered a possible nominee in Supporting Actress, but the film’s best chances come in Art Direction and Costume Design, possibly Makeup.”
Oscar Results: There was nothing Oscar worthy about the film…at least according to the Academy who shut it out of the nominations altogether.
Box Office Prediction: $20 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Technically a 2011 release, this film doesn’t quite have the chops for being a box office hit, but if it picks up a few Oscar nominations, it could do at least modestly well.”
Box Office Results: $757.2 K
Thoughts: [Flop] The film didn’t pick up any Oscar nominations, meaning it’s below-$1 million take isn’t necessarily expected, but it’s easier to understand.

Pina

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Some consider it a strong contender for the Oscar nomination for Best Documentary Feature. I’m dubious about a performance piece with no true documentary style from getting selected.”
Oscar Results: And still it managed to get the nomination. It was also submitted for Best Foreign Language film, but didn’t make the cut.
Box Office Prediction: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Documentaries seldom do well at the box office and this dance piece is so niche it’s a nichey niche. Don’t expect much.”
Box Office Results: $3.5 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Not a bad performance for a documentary about a choreographer with whom the general public is unfamiliar.

January 27-29, 2012

The Grey

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Just like all of his previous thrillers, this one has no chance.”
Oscar Results: There’s now talk that Liam Neeson could earn a career honor for his surprising box office prowess. I remain skeptical.
Box Office Prediction: $70 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “This may be the ultimate test for Liam Neeson’s box office capabilities. It’s not exactly his usual kind of thriller, but if it’s a success, we may have proof that Neeson is the biggest box office draw working today.”
Box Office Results: $51.6 M
Thoughts: [Success] Perhaps not the box office megahit I expected, these numbers are still good. It may just not have been the preferred style of Neeson’s many fans.

Man on a Ledge

Box Office Prediction: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Has anyone actually heard of this film? A limit on the amount of press a film gets, especially one with as little notoriety as this one has, may doom its prospects.”
Box Office Results: $18.6 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Not performing well, but not far off expectations, this heist-ish thriller didn’t prove to be a potent force of any sort.

One for the Money

Box Office Prediction: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “The title says it all. This is a paycheck film that will cost its producers greatly. I don’t think it’s going to be much of a success at all.”
Box Office Results: $26.4 M
Thoughts: [Flop] How this could perform better than Man on a Ledge is anyone’s guess. Regardless, it’s results are still quite disappointing and should prove once and for all that Katherine Heigl is NOT a box office draw.

Declaration of War

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “It’s still the perfect film for Oscar voters’ attention, the film may not be able to overcome the Iranian submission.”
Oscar Results: The Academy’s Foreign Language Film branch continues to mystify in its selection process. Although a critically acclaimed film won this year, that result tends to be an outlier and not the norm.
Box Office Prediction: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “I would be repeating myself if I said foreign films don’t often do well at the box office, but I’d still be right about it.”
Box Office Results: $46.2 K
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] At the time I wrote my preview, I expected this film to be an Oscar nominee. Without that reputation to bolster its numbers, the film was not surprisingly a dud. It’s the level of the flop that is most disappointing considering how accessible the subject matter was.