March 2, 2012

Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Depending on how critics take to it, the film could hold on strong through the year to become one of the three-to-five Best Animated Feature nominees. If the critics don’t like it, it could still make it depending on the rest of the competition.”
Oscar Results: With these numbers, I’d be surprised if it wasn’t nominated for Best Animated Feature. Critics were mostly positive, so it has its supporters, which is just enough to help it make it through.
Box Office Prediction: $80 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Solid. Coraline opened to strong numbers in February of 2009. Although it isn’t the same makers, there’s something about the release window that reminds me of the film. With no children’s films for longer than studios would probably hope and nothing more for them until the end of the month when The Pirates releases, it should do nice numbers, especially with the cutesy elements on display in the current trailer. The 3D ticket prices are likely to help as well.”
Box Office Results: $214.0 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] We expected it to do solid animation business, but to score such a high total on an off weekend at the beginning of the year speaks to two things: never underestimate the love of animation by the public, especially one with recognizable names on a recognizable subject; and when families are starved for things to see, they’ll flock to just about anything.

Project X

Box Office Prediction: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Unknown, Leaning Solid. While I don’t think it will live up to its March 2 compatriot in terms of box office, never underestimate the power of a gross out high school drama filled with poor role models. With the Judd Apatow name attahed, it could do well. Of course, it could also be a dismal bomb.”
Box Office Results: $54.7 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Just shy of my prediction, the film didn’t need to make a lot of money to be a success. This total shows that the target audience will see just about anything.

March 9, 2012

John Carter

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “It could compete in a few technical categories, but March is the worst time of year to release if you want your film fresh in voters’ minds.”
Oscar Results: Being considered a flop will likely prohibit Oscar from taking it into consideration.
Box Office Prediction: $90 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Solid. The trailer does a fine job enticing the audience into wanting to see it. However, it looks fairly shallow and critics are bound to be down on the film. Still, curiosity seekers will head to the theater and it could be a modest success.”
Box Office Results: $73.1 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] I had low-balled my prediction based on early word, but even my estimation was too high. The film is considered a flop based on budget and the advertising funnelled into the film.

March 16, 2012

21 Jump Street

Box Office Prediction: $55 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Unknown, Leaning Modest. It’s hard to know how fickle the audience for such a film will be. Although we all expected the A-Team adaptation to do extremely well, it’s sub-$80 million total was quite low. 21 Jump Street doesn’t quite have the cachet of The A-Team, so a lot depends on the audience that could make it succeed, teenage boys. As those who’ve made other ’80’s transplants blockbusters aren’t going to be as enthused.”
Box Office Results: $138.4 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] I’ll admit I never saw this coming. The idea was so idiotic that the chances of it being a success were minimal. Yet, it managed to shock everyone and post a near-$200 million total on what was never expected to be that size of a hit.

March 23, 2012

The Hunger Games

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “A lot depends on whether critics support the film or not. Unlike Twilight, the deep and complex storyline could appeal to critics looking for more depth from their tween epics.”
Oscar Results: The film had universal praise from critics and audiences, but has faded a lot in the last few months, making its chances of major Oscar recognition fairly minimal. It can still compete in Original Song if nowhere else.
Box Office Prediction: $175 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. You don’t make a movie from a popular book and not expect huge numbers at the box office. Anything under $150 would be disappointing.”
Box Office Results: $407.7 M (STILL IN RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Major Success] The film almost made my prediction in its opening weekend. I never expected it to be that big of a hit and it makes the Twilight films, with its narrow demographic, seem like a flop by comparison (even adjusting for inflation, this film made nearly double the original Twilight film in its first outing.

March 30, 2012

Mirror Mirror

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “It has some gorgeous sets and costumes which could be easily remembered come Oscar time, but it will have a lot of competition this year. It will likely end up a nominee at the Art Directors Guild and Costume Designers Guild, but Oscar may be a bit too far away to tell.”
Oscar Results: This is a bubble film. It will need some solid year-end support to emerge as an Oscar contender now that the weakish box office pales compared to the other Snow White film.
Box Office Prediction: $100 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Solid. As much as I want to say this will be a dud, I think there’s enough interest that audiences will flock to see what Tarsem Singh has brought us. Of course, it could have a stellar debut and then sink like a rock, so we may have to wait until reviews are out to know better.”
Box Office Results: $64.9 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] It wasn’t what I expected, but all things considered, the total isn’t bad. However, people will point to any total under $100 million for a heavily advertised film to be underwhelming, which by that measure it is.

The Pirates! Band of Misfits

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “I would have expected Arthur Christmas to follow in Were-Rabbit’s footsteps, but it didn’t, so whether it can be a Best Animated Feature nominee or not remains to be seen.”
Box Office Prediction: $55 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “As The Curse of the Were-Rabbit and Arthur Christmas proved, audiences don’t exactly get Aardman’s humor. Although the films are loved by critics, Aardman hasn’t had a hit since Chicken Run and even that made just barely over $100 million.”
Box Office Results: $31.1 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] The film opened in wide release a month later than originally scheduled. I also covered this in April, so I’ll leave my comments for then.

Wrath of the Titans

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “The prior film didn’t earn any Oscar nominations, so I don’t expect the sequel to either even with its heavy creative category dominance.”
Oscar Results: Its chances have not only failed to improve, they’ve diminished thanks to the lackluster sequel box office.
Box Office Prediction: $175 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. The first film did incredibly well at the box office despite being a fairly bland remake, so I don’t see why the sequel won’t do gangbusters as well and probably outdo it with the 3D ticket prices.”
Box Office Results: $83.7 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] You don’t make a sequel to a huge hit and put this much advertising into it and expect it to fail so much. Even an ok total of $83 million is a flop with all things considered.