There are no two bigger months at theaters. While the Summer may provide box office swing, both box office and Oscars dominate the final two months of the year with November likely the biggest of them all. This year, a number of top notch films will compete for audience dollars and critics’ appreciation going into the final weeks of pre-Oscar wrangling. This November features one of the most impressive line-ups Oscar has seen in some time, with many of them strong contenders for one or multiple nominations.

December 7, 2012

Playing for Keeps

Premise: From IMDb: “A former sports star who’s fallen on hard times starts coaching his son’s soccer team in an attempt to get his life together.”
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Expectations: Poor. Gerard Butler frequently struggles to get people to his movies. Typically, he has to be paired with a prominent starlet to gain any kind of traction. Looking at his total for Gamer, I’m thinking we could be seeing something on that level. If he can score a higher total than that, perhaps its subject matter that causes him to struggle rather than himself.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Hyde Park on Hudson

Premise: From IMDb: “The story of the love affair between FDR and his distant cousin Margaret Stuckley, centered around the weekend in 1939 when the King and Queen of the United Kingdom visited upstate New York.”
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Expectations: Weak. It’s an indie, so I don’t expect much out of the box office, but without critics to bolster attendance, the film will do very little good business.
Oscar Prospects: Once thought to be a prime contender for the Oscars this year, a dreary response from critics has pretty much sunk the film’s chances. It’s possible the film could still figure in Art Direction or Costume Design and Supporting Actress Olivia Williams could be a surprise nominee, but I’m doubtful on all of these counts.

December 14, 2012

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Premise: From IMDb: “A curious Hobbit, Bilbo Baggins, journeys to the Lonely Mountain with a vigorous group of Dwarves to reclaim a treasure stolen from them by the dragon Smaug.”
Box Office Prospects: $400 M
Expectations: Strong. The Lord of the Rings trilogy is one of the top earners in history and I see little reason to doubt that Peter Jackson can continue that streak with this first part in a new trilogy.
Oscar Prospects: Depending on whether the film can capture the imagination of viewers the way his first three Middle Earth films did, Jackson could find himself in contention again. A lot rests on whether we’re looking at a return to greatness or more good-to-mediocre work like Jackson’s post-Rings outings King Kong and The Lovely Bones. If it’s a hit with critics, look for consideration in Best Picture, Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay and every technical and creative category under the sun.

December 21, 2012

Jack Reacher

Premise: From IMDb: “A homicide investigator digs deeper into a case involving a trained military sniper who shot five random victims.”
Box Office Prospects: $80 M
Expectations: Uncertain. With that awful first trailer, Cruise’s film may have lost audience interest early and will need strong word of mouth and a much better second trailer to regain momentum.
Oscar Prospects: None. Maybe some technical nods, but I’m doubtful.

Monsters, Inc. 3D

Premise: From IMDb: “3D version of the original film: Monsters generate their city’s power by scaring children, but they are terribly afraid themselves of being contaminated by children, so when one enters Monstropolis, top scarer Sulley finds his world disrupted.”
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Expectations: The Lion King remains the undisputed monarch of 3D-converted animated re-releases. While I dont expect it to do the near-$100 million King did, the holiday window coupled with the impending release of the sequel should goose business and may push Monsters, Inc. into the #2 slot, though Titanic‘s $57.8 million might be hard to attain, leaving it stuck in third.

This Is 40

Premise: From IMDb: “A look at the lives of Pete and Debbie a few years after the events of Knocked Up.”
Box Office Prospects: $120 M
Expectations: Solid. The pseudo-sequel to Judd Apatow’s Knocked Up may prove popular with fans of the original. Apatow and and his ilk have struggled to find footing in recent years, so my prediction may be a bit overzealous. Anything short of that total won’t be surprising, but may be disappointing.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Zero Dark Thirty

Premise: From IMDb: “A chronicle of the decade-long hunt for al-Qaeda terrorist leader Osama bin Laden after the 9/11 attacks, and his death at the hands of the Navy SEAL Team 6 in May, 2011.”
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Expectations: Unknown. The Hurt Locker did ok business, but was released in the Summer long before it was an Oscar frontrunner. This time, Kathryn Bigelow’s project is releasing in prime real estate. While it’s not precisely the type of film audiences like to flock to over the holidays, a mixture of appreciation for her landmark prior project and strong notices from Critics with Oscar buzz may be enough to make it a plausible hit.
Oscar Prospects: Any Oscar winning director will become the talk of Oscar consideration with their next project, and being the first woman to win Best Director, the pressure will be intense for her to replicate or at least come close to replicating her prior success. The talk will be all over this film and I expect it to get a Best Picture nomination even if Bigelow isn’t cited for Best Director, just based on early perception of it being a strong contender. If critics lambast it, things might change.

Amour

Premise: From IMDb: “Georges and Anne are in their eighties. They are cultivated, retired music teachers. Their daughter, who is also a musician, lives abroad with her family. One day, Anne has an attack. The couple’s bond of love is severely tested.”
Box Office Prospects: $3 M
Expectations: Standard. Few foreign language films manage to move from indie success to broad national support. Amour darker subject matter will be a turn off to many audiences and even strong support from the Academy won’t do much to bolster its chances.
Oscar Prospects: Apart from a Best Foreign Language Film nomination that I woudl be shocked if it didn’t get, some are predicting stars Jean-Louis Trintingnant and Emmanuelle Riva will be contenders for acting Oscar nominations. I don’t think the possibilities are that strong, but I won’t entirely avoid the idea. Its best shot, however, is in the writing category.

On the Road

Premise: From IMDb: “Young writer Sal Paradise has his life shaken by the arrival of free-spirited Dean Moriarty and his girl, Marylou. As they travel across the country, they encounter a mix of people who each impact their journey indelibly.”
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Expectations: Unknown. Jack Kerouac’s Beat Generation might make this a huge hit, but who are we kidding? The reviews out of the festivals have been largely mediocre and the stars of the film haven’t had much success selling their films on the national market unless attached to a major property. I doubt it will do even as well as I’m predicting.
Oscar Prospects: The initial reviews weren’t great, so the film will likely be ignored throughout the Oscar campaigning season.

December 25, 2012

Django Unchained

Premise: From IMDb: “With the help of his mentor, a slave-turned-bounty hunter sets out to rescue his wife from a brutal Mississippi plantation owner.”
Box Office Prospects: $80 M
Expectations: Decent. Quentin Tarantino has made a name for himself among audiences. While he doesn’t always create unqualified successes, this anti-slavery actioner has a chance at very broad audience support. I don’t expect it to reach Inglourious Basterds or Pulp Fiction levels, but surpassing the Kill Bill films is very likely.
Oscar Prospects: After Tarantino made huge waves with his nominations for Inglourious Basterds, many will be proclaiming him a major contender this year. A minor contender for sure simply because of his film’s subject matter; however, as his post-Pulp Fiction career shows, he’s been largely hit-or-miss with emphasis on the miss. Still, he has a good shot at nominations in several creative categories, but the above-the-line stuff may be tougher to achieve…except writing. He does fairly well with the Writers Branch.

The Guilt Trip

Premise: From IMDb: “An inventor and his mom hit the road together so he can sell his latest invention.”
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Expectations: Solid. A holiday film from an actor (Seth Rogen) whose had intermittent success at the box office. The combination is fairly likely to result in strong, if not exactly earth-shattering business.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Les Miserables

Premise: From IMDb: “An adaptation of the successful stage musical based on Victor Hugo’s classic novel set in 19th-century France, in which a paroled prisoner named Jean Valjean seeks redemption.”
Box Office Prospects: $100 M
Expectations: Solid. It will likely be the musical event of the fall (the only musical event of the fall, really, but that’s hardly important) and with the passionate subject matter and well known actors, the hit potential is high. Dreamgirls did fantastic business a few years ago and this has the same level of prominence in terms of name recognition, perhaps even more. It was a hit on Broadway, which may help make it a hit on the big screen. My prediction may be low-balled if critics embrace the film as well as audiences and especially if it’s a big Oscar nominee.
Oscar Prospects: Sight-unseen, its paper trail looks very Oscar capable. Recent musicals haven’t done so well with only Dreamgirls making a splash at the Oscars after the big emergence of Chicago ten years ago. Still, if the critics line up for it, I expect it to be a big nominee, in the range of 10 to 12 nominations, mostly in the creative categories, but also in acting, writing and especially Best Picture.

Parental Guidance

Premise: From IMDb: “Artie and Diane agree to look after their three grandkids when their type-A helicopter parents need to leave town for work. Problems arise when the kids’ 21st-century behaviors collide with Artie and Diane’s old-school methods.”
Box Office Prospects: $100 M
Expectations: Strong. Although The Guilt Trip is more holiday oriented, the trailer for Parental Guidance looks more approachable and with more recognizable faces per capita, the possibilities are strong this will do very well.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Promised Land

Premise: From IMDb: “A salesman for a natural gas company experiences life-changing events after arriving in a small town, where his corporation wants to tap into the available resources.”
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Expectations: Unknown. They’re going for a platform release, but the film’s success all depends on its Oscar prospects. If critics don’t support it, it will never make a successful nationwide launch. However, I think it’s very likely we’ll be seeing this one building on solid word of mouth.
Oscar Prospects: This is a film that critics will have to fall head-over-heels for to get it into the Oscars’ sights. I think it has the potential to be a top tier nominee, but it all depends on the reviews.

Quartet

Premise: From IMDb: “At a home for retired opera singers, the annual concert to celebrate Verdi’s birthday is disrupted by the arrival of Jean, an eternal diva and the former wife of one of the residents.”
Box Office Prospects: $10 M
Expectations: Average. It has some very big names in the cast, but doesn’t seem like the kind of film audiences will rush right out to see. However, if the Oscars look at it and give it some attention, it could overperform my expectations.
Oscar Prospects: That cast alone should make it an Oscar contender, but a lot will depend on reviews, which could sink the film’s chances entirely or make it soar.