July 3, 2012

The Amazing Spider-Man

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “It could be nominated for Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Visual Effects, but I’m guessing it gets overshadowed by the large supply of other effects heavy films this year.”
Oscar Results: The film hasn’t been making a lot of waves, so it’s likely the film may miss out on any nominations; however, it did make the Academy’s Visual Effects shortlist, so the possibility is still there, even if remote.
Box Office Prediction: $200 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Can a re-boot of a franchise that just ended do well at the box office? By the looks of the trailer, it’s likely. It won’t perform to original Spider-Man levels, but it should take the July 4 holiday and make a heyday of it.”
Box Office Results: $262.0 M
Thoughts: [Success] Everyone wondered if it was too soon to release a reboot. Obviously audiences disagreed making the film a much bigger success than I anticipated. While it doesn’t hold a candle to the prior series’ opening, it’s a respectable total for a film that changed out its cast.

July 6-8, 2012

Savages

Box Office Prediction: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Oliver Stone hasn’t been a box office draw in a long time and this film doesn’t seem to be getting the press a summer film needs to survive and prosper. The only thing that should give us hope of a solid box office is its actiony goodness and heist-stylings, which probably still won’t be enough.”
Box Office Results: $47.3 M
Thoughts: [Success] For an Oliver Stone film, this is quite an achievement. Many of his recent movies have been failures at the box office and while this isn’t exactly a blockbuster, considering the hype and advertising the film did receive, this total is pretty solid.

July 13-15, 2012

Ice Age: Continental Drift

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Limited. This is the kind of sequel the Academy regularly ignores in the Animated Feature category, the only one in which it can hope to compete.”
Oscar Results: Still no chance. This franchise is Oscar poison…or is it just a Fox Animation issue?
Box Office Prediction: $205 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “The box office totals of the prior three films show the film has support among audiences and like Madagascar, this is a critic-proof franchise, so I wonder if it can meet its predecessor’s finally tally or fall short. I’m guessing it will do slightly better, but not by much.”
Box Office Results: $161.1 M (STILL IN VERY LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Far under expectations, this franchise has shown flagging interest and while this total is nothing to be sneezed at, it isn’t the universally acclaimed, bountiful box office it could have been.

July 20-22, 2012

The Dark Knight Rises

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “There will undoubtedly be buzz surrounding Nolan’s film since the Academy changed its Best Picture quantity rules since The Dark Knight was surprisingly left off the slate four years ago. The rule change seemed directed at this specific omission, so if critics line up behind it, a Best Picture nomination could be assured, though Best Director won’t happen. The film is also likely to pick up several creative nods including Original Score, Editing, Cinematography, Art Direction, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Visual Effects.”
Oscar Results: The film’s failure to attract a cult critics following may keep it from being a major factor this year. The film performed generally well, but was underwhelming compared to its predecessor. The film could still figure in some categories like the sound categories and Visual Effects, its chances for broader consideration have faded.
Box Office Prediction: $650 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “There is no question whether or not this film will be a hit, but can it outperform the Heath Ledger-fueled second film in Christopher Nolan’s trilogy? With the change in ticket prices, it’s quite likely and this will be one of the year’s bigger blockbusters.”
Box Office Results: $448.1 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] In what realm is a near $450 million box office tally not spectacular? When your prior franchise entry sailed past that watermark. What should have been a box office slamdunk was, but not to the level it was anticipated to be. As with many third parts to franchises, the final film struggled to meet similar expectations even when it’s still a rousing success.

July 27-29, 2012

Step Up: Revolution

Box Office Prediction: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “The law of diminishing returns has been affecting this franchise in each successive outing, but even though the prior films looked rather formulaic, this one, in spite of that, looks like it could be fun. A reverse of the downward trend for this film wouldn’t surprise me…otherwise, this could be the series’ final outing.”
Box Office Results: $35.1 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Back in the 1990’s, it seemed like everything was getting a sequel or a trilogy. A particularly bad year (which included the likes of Addams Family Values among others, destroyed the sequel market for several years. This type of result will likely do the same and will likely result in the direct-to-video destination of this franchise if it should continue.

The Watch

Box Office Prediction: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “A cowardly name change may not help the film win attention from audiences. The advertising for the film has been relatively minimal to date, which doesn’t bode well for this Ben Stiller film. Outside of his two big franchises, Stiller hasn’t been a huge box office draw in years, still, it’s a ribald comedy in the waning days of summer with few other contenders in the mix. I think it should do well, but I don’t think it will be a stunner.”
Box Office Results: $35.4 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] With stars like these, who neds box office? Studios. This film went through a last-minute name change to avoid confusion with the Trayvon Martin case in Florida, but the old title wouldn’t have helped sell this ridiculous aliens-have-landed comedy.

Ruby Sparks

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Indie romantic comedies aren’t the best performers with the Oscars, but if critics are heavily in favor of it, end-of-year awards could be a possibility.”
Oscar Results: The film was well respected, but not enthusiastically so. Its chance at Oscar nominations are virtually nil at this point.
Box Office Prediction: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “It’s weird science of the literary sort. The film is opening in limited engagements, so it’s not likely to perform too well to start and the premise seems niche enough not to be much of a cross-over success.”
Box Office Results: $2.5 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Even for an indie film, this tally is somewhat terrible. A pathetic advertising campaign and failed word of mouth caused this Weird Science simulacrum to flop and flop well.