September 7, 2012

The Words

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Unlikely. Releasing in early September, especially around Labor Day isn’t a good sign for an Oscar contender. The advertising for the film seems to suggest that it’s a light romantic drama more likely designed to appeal to audiences than Oscar voters.”
Oscar Results: Combining the meager box office with the poor response from critics, it’s no surprise this one didn’t mesh with Oscar.
Box Office Prediction: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Bradley Cooper hasn’t been much of a box office draw as yet, but like his romcom contemporaries, studios keep trying to sell him as a romantic lead. While the film might seem on the surface an excellent way for him to stand out.”
Box Office Results: $11.5 M
Thoughts: [Flop] I left it off with an incomplete thought, but that’s about what the studio did when it cobbled together this concept and the Labor Day opening proved poisonous for the film and its results.

September 14, 2012

Finding Nemo 3D

Box Office Prediction: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “After the weak showings for two 3D re-releases this year (Beauty and the Beast and Star Wars: Episode I), it’s become clear that not every such film can be a hit like The Lion King, the first film in this recent trend. Was it a success because it was in 3D or because it was the first time in almost two decades it had been in the theater. My guess is the latter, though why Star Wars didn’t also do well is more because of the estimated quality of the origina film. Finding Nemo was well received critically and was a huge hit with audiences. However, I don’t think they are that willing to put down the extra up-charge to watch a film that has been easily available on DVD for years.”
Box Office Results: $41.1 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] The 3D re-issue concept doesn’t seem to be going over as well as the studios had hoped. Here was a film that had been a big box office hit in its day and even it couldn’t manage a very large re-issue total.

Resident Evil: Retribution

Box Office Prediction: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “This is another horror-sci-fi franchise that has been doing excellent business in spite of finding itself on the wrong side of critics. If the latest Underworld could still garner strong attention after numerous previous outings, I see little reason why Resident Evil can’t do the same.”
Box Office Results: $42.3 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] The franchise seems to be fading. Is it enough for it to be put out of its misery? Not quite yet, but it’s getting there.

The Master

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Strong. Paul Thomas Anderson has been an awards magnet each time he releases a film and while the subject doesn’t seem like segments of the Hollywood community would support, the lack of strong critically acclaimed directors in the 2012 landscape may prompt it to enter the race with favorable headwinds. Look for consideration in Best Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Editing and Cinematography. Other categories it could get nominated in, but likely won’t are Art Direction, Costume Design, Makeup, Sound Mixing and Sound Editing.”
Oscar Results: The film went into the year-end races looking strong, but began to fumble through the critic’s awards and ultimately landed only three nominations, all in acting, and none of them very strong contenders.
Box Office Prediction: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “The only thing that has helped Paul Thomas Anderson’s films do well at the box office is the regular awards attention. When a film he’s made isn’t impressing critics, it isn’t impressing the box office either. Since this looks to be another in a long line of critical successes, the box office should match-up…for an indie.”
Box Office Results: $16.2 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] For an indie, this isn’t a bad total, but compared to Anderson’s prior films, this is rather disappointing.

September 21, 2012

Dredd

Box Office Prediction: $20 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “First there was Jonah Hex (technically, Battlefield: Earth, but who really remembers that one) then Cowboys & Aliens and Priest and any number of other genre-heavy critic-anemic messes. This newest in a long list of unnecessary remakes isn’t likely to perform well at the box office. Apart from being a poorly attended original, the lack of notable big name talent at the head of the cast list, should doom it to a rather miserable box office tally.”
Box Office Results: $13.4 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] I didn’t expect it to do well and it didn’t. The difference between this one and the aforementioned three genre-crossing flops is that this was A) a remake and B) received decent remarks from critics. Still, nothing could get past those dull and misleading trailers.

End of Watch

Box Office Prediction: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “This could easily be one of the surprises of September. Although the film looks fairly generic, a lack of quality product during the month could push people to a film they won’t probably care about. While it doesn’t have the cachet of Denzel Washington and Ryan Reynolds, Safe House may be a decent comparison, even if this one makes quite a bit less.”
Box Office Results: $41.0 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] All things considered, this isn’t a bad total; however, it was quite a bit under my prediction. Who does Jake Gyllenhaal have to blow to get a hit?

House at the End of the Street

Box Office Prediction: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Jennifer Lawrence isn’t quite a household name, but she’s easily recognizable. Although the people who are most familiar with her won’t be going to see this horror film (I’m talking about fans of The Hunger Games), the fact that it’s the first such film in the September-October pre-Halloween window should give it sizable genre legs.”
Box Office Results: $31.6 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Even the multi-talented and now-Oscar-winning Lawrence couldn’t sell the film to hungry horror audiences. While the result isn’t bad for the genre, it’s also not great.

Trouble With the Curve

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. Some will be pushing its stars for Oscar consideration, but the September release isn’t doing it any wonders. I see SAG perhaps picking out Clint Eastwood and Amy Adams for nomination, but the Academy will likely pass over both, though the temptation to career-honor Eastwood’s acting career might mean he sneaks in.”
Oscar Results: Adams’ potential shifted to her appearance in The Master where she nabbed another Oscar nomination, but poor box office tepid reviews left Eastwood with another failed Oscar contender.
Box Office Prediction: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Baseball films aren’t the successes that football films are, so the only thing giving this a chance at box office glory is Eastwood’s presence. Gran Turino proved popular with audiences, so it wouldn’t be inconceivable that Eastwood could still open a movie decently, but I’m betting on a slightly depressed turnout for this one.”
Box Office Results: $35.8 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Moneyball was a hit. Why couldn’t the typically popular Eastwood do better than this? No one can say for sure. In the end, audiences just didn’t find the concept of an aging baseball talent scout to be as invigorating as producers had probably preferred.

September 28, 2012

Hotel Transylvania

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “The Megamind comparison seems apt to this discussion as well since that film didn’t even come close to Oscar consideration. I’d say the same fate awaits this film.”
Oscar Results: The film got decent reviews, so it should have done better. I really think the presence of Adam Sandler and the list of other stronger, more respected efforts contributed to the film’s failure to catch on with the Academy’s animation branch.
Box Office Prediction: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “While the animation market isn’t exactly saturated, fans of the genre have proven to be rather picky when it comes to films they support. A movie like Megamind appeared to be the kind of animated feature that does boffo business at the box office. Yet, it only managed a total just south of $150 million. With Adam Sandler’s weak track record and the rather childish previews, I’m predicting about the Megamind performance-level, but wouldn’t be surprised if it’s much less.”
Box Office Results: $148.3 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Success] Adam Sandler’s first real hit in several years, Hotel Transylvania successfully tapped the family market. Both target demos likely helped bolster this past Sandler’s typical fare, but not by munch. It is the Megamind mold.

Looper

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Everyone involved will have to wait for another project to get Oscar interested.”
Oscar Results: While my comment was perhaps too flippant at the time, it proved to be true. The script earned rather strong support, but was ultimately shelved by a genre-avoidant Academy.
Box Office Prediction: $70 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “A director with no major blockbuster recognition and an actor whose yet to prove himself a box office draw outside of being an ensemble player in bigger films. It doesn’t sound like much of a winning formula. However, the advertising seems to be working and the novelty of the premise could be enough to bring the curious to the theaters and eke out a smal victory.”
Box Office Results: $66.5 M
Thoughts: [Success] Sci-fi can soar or it can flop, but seldom does it perform in the medium range and that’s what Looper did. Not as strong as more futuristic-looking pictures, but this was a fairly strong showing that will secure Rian Johnson several more directing jobs.

Won’t Back Down

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Hot off her narrow loss to Meryl Streep last year, Davis is a leading contender for Oscar recognition and this could be her ticket. The rest of the film doesn’t seem much like Oscar bait, but there could be light chatter for the film’s other thespians Maggie Gyllenhaal, Holly Hunter, Rosie Perez and Ving Rhames.”
Oscar Results: Not only did the film not materialize any Oscar interest, it’s pathetic box office guaranteed that Viola Davis would never be taken seriously as an Oscar contender. Maybe she’ll do better in the future.
Box Office Prediction: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Apart from its interest as an Oscar vehcile for Viola Davis, there hasn’t been much advertising and other than a niche market, I’m not sure anyone’s going to rush right out to see it.”
Box Office Results: $5.3 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] It was targeted to the right audience, but teachers unions went into attack mode on the film insinuating it was a thinly-veiled piece of right wing propaganda designed to push people towards private schools rather than a public education. The producers swore this was not the case, but bad press on a movie like this (along with bad reviews) doomed it to obscurity.