March has spawned big hits and it has spawned disasters. Which of this year’s releases will fly or flop? There’s a good chance for several in both categories.

MARCH 1-3, 2013

21 and Over

Premise: From IMDb: “The night before his big medical school exam, a promising student celebrates his 21st birthday with his two best friends.”
Box Office Prospects: $55 M
Expectations: Looking back at a film like Project X, which covers the same type of territory as this film, it’s not hard to see why it could do quite well. Although Project X wasn’t a blockbuster, it turned a tidy profit from teen and college-age audiences, which is precisely where this film’s box office potential comes from.
Oscar Prospects: None

Jack the Giant Slayer

Premise: From IMDb: “The ancient war between humans and a race of giants is reignited when Jack, a young farmhand fighting for a kingdom and the love of a princess, opens a gateway between the two worlds.”
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Expectations: The advertising has made this film look like an adventure or a comedy, but seldom a blend of both. Knowing the director, it will probably be better than it looks, but the trailers and other advertising have been poorly framed and make this look like a throw-away film. I could see this failing on a John Carter level, but a surprise hit could also be possible.
Oscar Prospects: None

The Last Exorcism Part II

Premise: From IMDb: “As Nell Sweetzer tries to build a new life after the events of the first movie, the evil force that once possessed her returns with an even more horrific plan.”
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Expectations: Horror always opens strong and then fades fast. I see the same trajectory for this ill-titled sequel, which should perform about on par with its predecessors. Supernatural horror films don’t alway do well, but there’s a big market out there for possession dramas, so this should perform better than other recent horror offerings.
Oscar Prospects: None

Phantom

Premise: From IMDb: “The haunted Captain of a Soviet submarine holds the fate of the world in his hands. Forced to leave his family behind, he is charged with leading a covert mission cloaked in mystery.”
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Expectations: The advertising for this film has been virtually non-existent. And while Ed Harris is a solid actor, David Duchovny’s uneven, especially on the big screen. Neither has the ability to draw audiences to the theater and placed against other films that will likely draw its potential demographic, this one should be one of the early failures of the month.
Oscar Prospects: None

A Place at the Table (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “A documentary that investigates incidents of hunger experienced by millions of Americans, and proposed solutions to the problem.”
Box Office Prospects: $3 M
Expectations: Although not a true sequel to the documentary Food, Inc., the film follows the natural progression of that film and could easily appeal to the same demographic that gave it a strong-for-its-genre tally last time out.
Oscar Prospects: With Food, Inc. having received an Oscar nomination, I can see this one doing the same, but a lot of been there-done that will creep into the campaign and unless critics embrace it the way they did Food, Table won’t make the final cut.

Stoker (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “After India’s father dies, her Uncle Charlie, who she never knew existed, comes to live with her and her unstable mother. She comes to suspect this mysterious, charming man has ulterior motives and becomes increasingly infatuated with him.”
Box Office Prospects: $55 M
Expectations: A Victorian-styled horror thriller could be nice counter-programming to the unlikely-to-please-critics The Last Exorcism Part II. With the likes of Mia Wasikowska, Nicole Kidman and Matthew Goode, it could be a surprise hit.
Oscar Prospects: None

MARCH 8-10, 2013

Dead Man Down

Premise: From IMDb: “In New York City, a crime lord’s right-hand man is seduced by one of his boss’s victims, a woman seeking retribution.”
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Expectations: Colin Farrell hasn’t been igniting the box office recently and with poor advertising to date, the film may not do incredibly well at the box office, but surprises sometimes happen and while it might not appeal to everyone, I can see a small, but dedicated group of filmgoers checking it out.
Oscar Prospects: None

Oz the Great and Powerful

Premise: From IMDb: “A small-time magician with dubious ethics arrives in a magical land and must decide if he will be a good man or a great one.”
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Expectations: While it is expected to be somewhat childlike, the trailers make the film look utterly childish. Still, audiences still seem to be excited about the film and Sam Raimi is nothing if not a crowd-pleasing director. It should do excellent business, but probably not as much as it probably could if it’s trailer made it look less predictable.
Oscar Prospects: While it’s not going to figure in any of the major category, Oz has a colorful design that could appeal to a number of creative branches including Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Visual Effects. Whether it makes it through the year with the same chances depends a lot on what other fantasy tales come out between now and then.

MARCH 15-17, 2013

The Call

Premise: From IMDb: “When veteran 911 operator Jordan Turner receives a call from a girl who has just been abducted, she soon realizes that she must confront a killer from her past in order to save the girl’s life.”
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Expectations: I can’t remember the last time Halle Berry headlined a hit. Nor can I remember the last time she had a trailer that looked at least mildly interesting. With a stronger advertising push, the film could do quite well with fans of the thriller, but may have trouble crossing over to broader audiences.
Oscar Prospects: None

The Incredible Burt Wonderstone

Premise: From IMDb: “Magician Burt Wonderstone splits from his longtime stage partner after a guerrilla street magician steals their thunder. By spending some time with his boyhood idol, Burt looks to remember what made him love magic in the first place.”
Box Office Prospects: $105 M
Expectations: Another film that, against my better judgments, doesn’t look half bad. Having Steve Carell and Jim Carrey on the ticket won’t hurt the film’s bottom line, but strong word of mouth will be essential to the film’s ultimate dominance or lack thereof.
Oscar Prospects: None

From Up On Poppy Hill (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “A group of Yokohama teens look to save their school’s clubhouse from the wrecking ball in preparations for the 1964 Tokyo Olympics.”
Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Expectations: I love Hayao Miyazaki, but unless he’s directing, I’m not really interested. However, I seem to be alone and everything Studio Ghibli becomes a solid, indie hit in the United States. This one looks to be a more traditional Miyazaki style narrative (the trailer doesn’t suggest the IMDb premise at all), so it should do decent business with the same crowd that enabled The Secret World of Arrietty to do the same.
Oscar Prospects: Ineligible.

Ginger & Rosa (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “A look at the lives of two teenage girls – inseparable friends Ginger and Rosa — growing up in 1960s London, and the pivotal event the comes to redefine their relationship as the Cuban Missile Crisis looms.”
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Expectations: Other than curious indie crowds, I can’t see much potential in this film. The acting looks good and the buzz out of the festivals was strong, but the film isn’t launching in the best window and neither of its leads are exactly box office stars, so I’m guarded on my expectations.
Oscar Prospects: Ineligible.

MARCH 22-24, 2013

Admission

Premise: From IMDb: “A Princeton admissions officer who is up for a major promotion takes a professional risk after she meets a college-bound alternative school kid who just might be the son she gave up years ago in a secret adoption.”
Box Office Prospects: $85 M
Expectations: Tina Fey. Paul Rudd. What’s not to like? If there is justice, this becomes a bigger hit than Identity Thief. However, I’m not going to hold my breath. Neither Fey nor Rudd have really proven themselves as audience magnets, but the genuinely funny trailer and recent ballyhooed success of her co-hosting the Golden Globes, this could be a success.
Oscar Prospects: None

The Croods

Premise: From IMDb: “The world’s very first prehistoric family goes on a road trip to an uncharted and fantastical world.”
Box Office Prospects: $205 M
Expectations: With no comparable competition nearby, The Croods should have little trouble becoming the number one film of the year released to date. The movie doesn’t look so great to me, but that won’t stop hungry family audiences from checking it out.
Oscar Prospects: It’s DreamWorks, so the chances of an Oscar nomination are pretty strong; however, early releases like this seldom figure in the Best Animated Feature race. Mix that with the somewhat lackluster trailers so far seen and I don’t think it will be one of the year’s five nominees.

Olympus Has Fallen

Premise: From IMDb: “Disgraced former Presidential guard Mike Banning finds himself trapped inside the White House in the wake of a terrorist attack; using his inside knowledge, Banning works with national security to rescue the President from his kidnappers.”
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Expectations: I begin to wonder if all of these Gerard Butler films were greenlighted before his string of box office flops. I don’t know that this one is going to be a flop since it has strong support from actors like Aaron Eckhart, Angela Bassett and Morgan Freeman and the premise seems to be more fitting to a broad spectrum audience than Butler’s prior films.
Oscar Prospects: None

The Sapphires (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “It’s 1968, and four young, talented Australian Aboriginal girls learn about love, friendship and war when their all girl group The Sapphires entertain the US troops in Vietnam.”
Box Office Prospects: $2 M
Expectations: For a buzzed-about indie period musical drama, it’s possible it could do better than I expect. However, it doesn’t have the appeal that something like Pitch Perfect did, so a break-out hit isn’t likely.
Oscar Prospects: It was a hit at various festivals, but may be seen as too similar to Dreamgirls to go very far with Oscar. But a strong push by critics might give it some forward momentum.

MARCH 29-31, 2013

G.I. Joe: Retaliation

Premise: From IMDb: “The G.I. Joes are not only fighting their mortal enemy Cobra; they are forced to contend with threats from within the government that jeopardize their very existence.”
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Expectations: After being pushed back into 2013, the “long-awaited” sequel to the modest-performing G.I. Joe adds the purpoted Sequel Savior Dwayne Johnson into the mix. Whether or not fans of the original cartoon property were impressed with the prior film will determine whether this one does good business. The potential is there, but I’m waffling on whether it will succeed or flop. I lean towards flop, but am predicting towards success.
Oscar Prospects: None

The Host

Premise: From IMDb: “A parasitic alien soul is injected into the body of Melanie Stryder. Instead of carrying out her race’s mission of taking over the Earth, “Wanda” (as she comes to be called) forms a bond with her host and sets out to aid other free humans.”
Box Office Prospects: $250 M
Expectations: Another hot, young adult novel being adapted to the big screen should do the kind of business that made both Twilight and The Hunger Games hits. And while Saoirse Ronan is wonderful actress, the source material has limitations and, unlike The Hunger Games, The Host doesn’t have the same level of anticipatory buzz leading in, though a strong total is still likely from those suffering from Twilight Withdrawal.
Oscar Prospects: None

Tyler Perry’s Temptation

Premise: From IMDb: “A marriage counselor’s life become complicated after she enters into an increasingly obsessive relationship behind her husband’s back.”
Box Office Prospects: $70 M
Expectations: Tyler Perry always has the potential of cross-over appeal and while his core audience will undoubtedly turn out for this one, the big question is whether other audiences will join the queues. Admittedly, this is the best looking Perry film trailer I’ve seen to date and one of the few I’ve contemplated checking out eventually. If that kind of opinion is pervasive, it could do better than expected.
Oscar Prospects: None

The Place Beyond the Pines (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “A motorcycle stunt rider turns to robbing banks as a way to provide for his lover and their newborn child, a decision that puts him on a collision course with an ambitious rookie cop navigating a department ruled by a corrupt detective.”
Box Office Prospects: $10 M
Expectations: The question will be whether or not critics embrace the film. Its festival run didn’t generate can’t-miss-it buzz, but critics have been universally positive about the film. Perhaps the movie is better than the trailer makes it look, but either way it should approach or surpass Blue Valentine total with that level of support.
Oscar Prospects: Derek Cianfrance helped Michelle Williams score an Oscar nomination for Blue Valentine, but she was the only one who made the Oscar ballot even though co-star Ryan Gosling should have. This is his second pairing with the wunderkind director and could become a small Oscar contender. However, the early release date and the mediocre trailer may be indicative of the film’s quality, which would likely kill its Oscar chances, especially beyond a nomination for Gosling who could escape the criticism unscathed.