October 5, 2012

Frankenweenie

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “I’m sure there will be talk, but unless this is far-and-away his best film made in the last several years, I cannot see the Academy’s notoriously picky features animation branch recognizing it. That doesn’t mean it won’t. They liked Burton enough to give his Corpse Bride a nomination and a lot depends on how the major studios fare this year, but if the critically acclaimed The Simpsons Movie can’t crack the race, Burton isn’t assured anything.”
Oscar Results: By support of critics groups, Burton made the cut, but that was as far as it got.
Box Office Prediction: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Mixed. There are two animated films in Tim Burton’s past, one of which he didn’t even direct. Neither were blockbusters and I don’t expect this one to be. However, this film seems a little more accessible than his The Corpse Bride, but may not be as compelling as The Nightmare Before Christmas (the one he didn’t direct), so I’m going to err on the side of Bride and keep my predictions low.”
Box Office Results: $35.3 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] The Burton name should have been gold, especially for something as off-beat and quirky as this, but the black-and-white may have turned off audiences who prefer their animation in color.

Pitch Perfect

Box Office Prediction: $20 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. I want it to succeed only because I love Anna Kendrick and it looks like a cute movie. However, the marketplace just doesn’t look too kindly on this type of film. Even Dolly Parton and Queen Latifah together couldn’t get Joyful Noise above a paltry $30 million finish.”
Box Office Results: $65.0 M
Thoughts: [Success] Becoming a sleeper hit, Pitch Perfect proved that sometimes an entertaining, well-made pic can earn the respect of audiences and their repeat business.

Taken 2

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “With The Grey positioned as the film Liam Neeson’s Oscar-bait movie, I don’t see this sequel helping much.”
Oscar Results: Not only did Neeson not figure ofr The Grey, he wasn’t even in the conversation after the Summer and this film didn’t give him back that mojo.
Box Office Prediction: $160 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Strong. Neeson has had a stellar late-career burst of action energy, keeping him churning out solid hits. This one, however, is a sequel to the wildly successful Taken. That prior film took in $145 million 3 years ago, I see it doing better this type out.”
Box Office Results: $139.8 M
Thoughts: [Success] It didn’t do better this time, but it came close enough that I’m sure his dog will join his wife and daughter in being abducted by some revenge-seeking terrorist in Taken 3.

October 12, 2012

Argo

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Word out of Toronto has been amazing and that the film is dealing with a real life event, it could more easily appeal to Oscar voters than The Town. And considering how much the Academy has favored actors-turned-director in the past, I could see this one finally recognizing Affleck in a way that those of us who’ve appreciated his work since Gone Baby Gone have long expected.”
Oscar Results: The Academy certainly recognized him, but not quite the way we expected. No Best Director nomination kept his ultimate victory for Argo in doubt until a run of late precursors sealed the deal.
Box Office Prediction: $80 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. Ben Affleck has not only proven himself a capable filmmaker, his last film, The Town nearly surpassed the $100 million mark at the domestic box office and talk of a surprise Best Picture nomination. This time out, he’s tackling a period piece, which will certainly elevate his Oscar capabilities, but not box office strengths. I’m going for a sub-Town total thinking the era the film is set in will not pull as many to the theater as the modern The Town.”
Box Office Results: $130.6 M (STILL IN RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Success] Far surpassing what would have been expected from Affleck’s prior efforts, all of the Oscar buzz kept the film churning well past the century mark and leaving it with a strong total.

Here Comes the Boom

Box Office Prediction: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Unknown. Kevin James has had a few hits, but his most recent output suggests he’s not as popular individually as he is in tandem with others. The modest success of family-oriented Zookeeper and utter bomb of The Dilemma doesn’t help make it easier to predict. I’ll give him more of a benefit than I might have had he not sold comedy Paul Blart so effectively. I will be disappointed if this thinly-disguised comedy riff on Warrior surpasses that film’s total.”
Box Office Results: $45.3 M
Thoughts: [Flop] And flop it is. Kevin James isn’t a box ofice star, nor do I think he ever will be. However, Hollywood just keeps trying to push certain stars as box office wonders in spite of evidence to the contrary. They’ll argue this time that the film wasn’t comedic enough and that was reason it flopped.

Seven Psychopaths

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “There were positive reviews out of Toronto, but nothing that would make me think it had much of a shot.”
Oscar Results: The film had a short burst of buzz after its release, but most of that died down quickly and the film never went very far.
Box Office Prediction: $20 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Colin Farrell doesn’t sell tickets by himself and this film isn’t solely about him. In Bruges was his last film that compares somewhat to this, but it will take strong word of mouth to make this film a hit.”
Box Office Results: $15.0 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] I wasn’t expecting much from the film, but the failure to give it a strong push for a wide audience doomed it to such a meager total.

Sinister

Box Office Prediction: $20 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. The marketing for this film has been virtually non-existent so far. Horror isn’t a guaranteed hit these days, so I’m not expecting much out of this if anything.”
Box Office Results: $48.1 M
Thoughts: [Success] It isn’t a great performance, but for this genre, that’s a solid total and that’s all there really is to say about it.

October 19, 2012

Alex Cross

Box Office Prediction: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Unknown. Can Tyler Perry sell a film that he didn’t make? He hasn’t even been able to sell films he’s made of late, but the novelty of the concept and the broad appeal and familiarity of the source material might make it a smallish success.”
Box Office Results: $25.9 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Apparently, not even fans of the book series wanted to see this film. Some argue Tyler Perry was wrong for the part and I don’t really have an opinion on that, but the movie didn’t look that great and Perry has never been a box office star as an actor…at least while not in drag.

Paranormal Activity 4

Box Office Prediction: $100 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Strong. Much to observers’ chagrin, the Paranormal Activity craze hasn’t abated yet. Although the second film took a noticeable drop from the first, the third film came very close to matching its predecessor (in non-adjusted dollars, of course). The advertising this time around isn’t great, but I see little reason not to expect this to put millions more in its makers’ pockets.”
Box Office Results: $53.9 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Normally, I wouldn’t consider this result a flop, but after the huge successes of the prior three films, this has to be considered a very disappointing result. I’m sure there will be more in the franchise, but its days are definitely numbered.

The Sessions

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “There’s talk of Oscar winner Helen Hunt making her first Oscar appearance in 15 years. The question is in what category? Those who’ve seen the film say she’s a co-lead, but competition in that category is heating up meaning a push down to support could be in the offing. Hunt is frequently cited as one of the least deserving winners in the last two decades, which could push some Academy voters into giving her another nomination to silence her critics. The only reason that has worked for Marisa Tomei (shock winner for My Cousin Vinny) is that she’s actually churning out good work. Hunt…not so much so. The rest of the film probably won’t appeal to the group of voters who kept the significnantly deserving Shame out of all categories, so we’ll see if anything materializes…even for Hunt.”
Oscar Results: Shame, despite being a completely different style, complexity and depressing film, was definitely the best comparison. It wasn’t that Oscar voters were turned off by the subject matter. Having watched it, I’d say the film fit perfectly into their wheelhouses. They may just not have seen it because of the premise. Hunt still managed to pick up her nomination as expected, but a second nod for John Hawkes, also widely predicted, didn’t materialize. At least he got a Spirit Award for his trouble.
Box Office Prediction: $10 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. The bizarre premise could get a few people into the theater, but it will be a tough sell for a wide release, thus why it’s only releasing in a limited number of markets to start. A platform release can only help the film.”
Box Office Results: $5.9 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] The film never got a strong roll-out nationwide and with critics positive, but not ecstatic and little traction from the precursors, the film was ultimately filed under “who cares” and seems to have pulled in a less-than-spectacular total. It’s not bad for an indie, but this one had higher aspirations.

October 26, 2012

Chasing Mavericks

Box Office Prediction: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. It has been a long time since a major studio released a surfing-themed movie. There have been a couple of independents, but they seem to be testing the waters with this (pun entirely intended). Gerard Butler might be considered box office poison considering several of his failed projects, so I wouldn’t expect too much out of this one with no other major box office draws to help sell it.”
Box Office Results: $6.0 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Put a nail in Gerard Butler’s coffin. He’s done. This is one of the worst performance he’s ever had headlining a film. Pair this with his other box office disappointments this year and I’ll be surprised if he works outside the independent cinema very often from this point forward.

Cloud Atlas

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “I’m doubtful the film will do well in the top tier categories, but the creative categories should have little issue recognizing the film. It could even end up one of the most nominated films in Oscar history not to also receive a Best Picture nomination.”
Oscar Results: And then the reviews came out. Lukewarm impressions of the Tykwer/Wachwoskis collaboration and anemic box office doomed the film to also-ran status. Some thought it would still eke out a nomination for Best Makeup and Hairstyling, but even that didn’t materialize.
Box Office Prediction: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Strong. Other than The Matrix films, the Wachowskis haven’t done much. Their last film, the ill-received Speed Racer was a $43-million dud in the Summer of 2008. Cloud Atlas seems a bit different. The big name stars on screen combined with the fantastical elements in the film (unlike Speed Racer, these effects look realistic), I imagine the Wachowskis will have a sizable hit on their hands.”
Box Office Results: $27.1 M
Thoughts: [Flop] This is probably the farthest off-base I’ve been on a film ever. The marketing campaign was a misfire, critics weren’t terribly impressed and the sci-fi element hindered more than helped the film. The Wachowskis can’t seem to catch a break outside of their Matrix trilogy, so in the future any high predictions for their films will be folly.

Fun Size

Box Office Prediction: $20 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. A comedy that almost no one is talking about. That can’t be a good sign. The movie has a few notable names, but none that scream box office hit. It will try to capitalize on Halloween and teen demos and likely come up short with both.”
Box Office Results: $9.4 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Its performance was far worse than expected. The target tween demographic never turned out and critics didn’t seem to care. It was the biggest dud you’ve probably never heard of but the studios believe you should have.

Silent Hill: Revelation 3D

Box Office Prediction: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Mediocre. For those of you who don’t remember (and who does except fans of the original), 2006 saw the release of the film Silent Hill based on a popular video game. Six years later, they’re finally getting around to making a sequel. The first film didn’t do badly among horror films ($46 million), but this many years doesn’t sem like a wise idea. If the film has become a cult phoenomenon (nothing I’ve heard indicates this), it could be big success. My inkling is that people will have forgotten it and will be still catching up on Paranormal Activity 4 over the Halloween weekend instead.”
Box Office Results: $17.5 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Time is never friendly to franchises that never proved themselves to be memorable. In the end, Halloween viewers found other things to do with their time and the 3D element didn’t seem to drive sales like it is supposed to (at least according to studio opinions).