Copy and paste fail! As some of you may have noticed, the original article was headed by my preview from late last year. That being said, May looks to be one of the year’s strongest potential months being headed by the biggest bet for guaranteed box office: Iron Man 3. There are some impending duds in May, but largely, this is the kick off to one of the biggest sequel-heavy Summers ever.

May 3-5, 2013

Iron Man 3

Premise: From IMDb: “When Tony Stark’s world is torn apart by a formidable terrorist called the Mandarin, Stark starts an odyssey of rebuilding and retribution.”
Box Office Prospects: $350 M
Expectations: Strong. The first two films both eclipsed $315 at the box office, so I see little reason that the sequel wouldn’t equal that number and considering it’s a bit darker, has 3D and is coming off the uber-successful The Avengers, I’m predicting a modest uptick from the prior installments.
Oscar Prospects: Strong. The first film earned two Oscar nominations. The second picked up one. While that doesn’t give the film a lot of hope, it’s sure to be a contender in Best Sound Mixing, Best Sound Editing and Best Visual Effects, the latter seemingly like its best shot at the Oscar. The film could even make an appearing in Best Makeup thanks to its work on Ben Kingsley as The Mandarin.

The Iceman

Premise: From IMDb: “The true story of Richard Kuklinski, the notorious contract killer and family man. When finally arrested in 1986, neither his wife nor daughters have any clue about his real profession.”
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Expectations: Unknown. Depending on how the film is marketed, I could see this becoming a decent hit with the general public, but it’s starting out in limited release and even if critics support it, it will take a bang-up campaign to get it out there further.
Oscar Prospects: Decent. Before his surprise Oscar nomination for Revolutionary Road five years ago over his more name-recognizable co-stars (Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet), Michael Shannon has been getting a lot of buzz around his performances. He was thought to be in the race for Best Actor for Take Shelter two years ago and he’ll undoubtedly be on the shortlist again this year. This more challenging and slightly more accessible story might give him his best shot at a second nomination, but he’ll need a fairly heavy push to get going.

What Maisie Knew

Premise: From IMDb: “In New York City, a young girl is caught in the middle of her parents’ bitter divorce.”
Box Office Prospects: $3 M
Expectations: Unknown. This is a film that needs word of mouth badly to overperform. However, looking at the make up of the cast and the festival-borne nature of the whole thing, I doubt it will be successful outside of the specialty box office.
Oscar Prospects: Weak. Another film that had small buzz last year for one of its actors, young actress Onata Aprile as the title character, didn’t get much traction and was pushed into 2013. Like another film I’ll discuss later in this post, getting shunted to another year doesn’t always help support an Oscar campaign and even having Julianne Moore on the bill isn’t likely to give this one much hope.

May 10-12, 2013

The Great Gatsby

Premise: From IMDb: “A Midwestern war veteran finds himself drawn to the past and lifestyle of his millionaire neighbor.”
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Expectations: Decent. Even Baz Luhrmann’s least potent box office film after Moulin Rouge came close to $50 million, so I don’t see a reason not to expect at least that. However, with the huge advertising push and the star turn of Leonardo DiCaprio, I can imagine a larger number of curiosity-seekers will make their way to the cineplex. After all, The Great Gatsby in 3D seems like a strange enough decision to get people interested.
Oscar Prospects: Strong. The excesses of Baz Luhrmann haven’t kept him away from the Oscars. Even his critically-maligned Australia snagged his wife a Best Costume Design nomination. That category and Best Production Design seem like locks to me, Best Visual Effects, Best Sound Mixing and Best Sound Editing also have slim-to-decent chances. The big question is whether critics will revile the 3D version of a literary classic or if his many naysayers will support this film like they did Moulin Rouge. Best Picture and other major categories have to be considered possible depending on how critics and audiences react.

Peeples

Premise: From IMDb: “Sparks fly when Wade Walker crashes the Peeples annual reunion in the Hamptons to ask for their precious daughter Grace’s hand in marriage.”
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Expectations: Mediocre. Tyler Perry’s a nice box office draw for his low-budget films, but he isn’t directing this one, which leads me to believe it will underperform most of his other films.

May 17-19, 2013

Star Trek: Into Darkness

Premise: From IMDb: “After the crew of the Enterprise find an unstoppable force of terror from within their own organization, Captain Kirk leads a manhunt to a war-zone world to capture a one man weapon of mass destruction.”
Box Office Prospects: $225 M
Expectations: Solid. The first film in the rebooted franchise earned more than $250 million with seemingly little issue. Much of that was from Trek fans who turned out in droves opening weekened. While not all of them were disappointed, enough were that the film may have some issues getting them all back to the theaters. Of course, the franchise also picked up significantly more fans than it lost, so it could overperform its predecessor.
Oscar Prospects: Solid. The first J.J. Abrams outing managed a franchise best four Oscar nominations, taking home the series’ first Oscar for Best Makeup. Whether that will happen again remains to be seen (since there doesn’t appaer to be a lot of makeup work at play in the trailers we’ve seen), but pencil it in for Best Sound Mixing, Best Sound Editing and Best Visual Effects if nothing else.

Frances Ha

Premise: From IMDb: “A story that follows a New York woman (who doesn’t really have an apartment), apprentices for a dance company (though she’s not really a dancer), and throws herself headlong into her dreams, even as their possible reality dwindles.”
Box Office Prospects: $2 M
Expectations: Weak. A black-and-white indie serio-comedy? I cannot see this movie succeeding anywhere other than in art house theaters.
Oscar Prospects: Weak. Last year, there was minor talk of an Oscar nomination for star Greta Gerwig. Since the film was pushed into 2013, I’m not sure it will have what it takes. A strong push by critics could help, but I don’t think that will materialize.

Stories We Tell

Premise: From IMDb: “A film that excavates layers of myth and memory to find the elusive truth at the core of a family of storytellers.”
Box Office Prospects: $0.5 M
Expectations: Weak. Documentaries have a tough time at the box office and even some of the great ones struggle to amass small fortunes. I’m perhaps being a bit pessimistic on this one, but unless critics stand up and cheer and word of mouth builds, I can’t predict it doing that well.
Oscar Prospects: Modest. Sarah Polley had a spectacular feature debut a few years ago with Away from Her, but her second feature didn’t gain much traction. This time, she’s tackling an unusual style of documentary filmmaking, which will test the openness of the Academy’s Documentary Branch.

May 24-26, 2013

Epic

Premise: From IMDb: “A teenager finds herself transported to a deep forest setting where a battle between the forces of good and the forces of evil is taking place. She bands together with a rag-tag group characters in order to save their world — and ours.”
Box Office Prospects: $110 M
Expectations: Average. It’s animated, so it has to do decently well. It’s the only animated film on the immediate horizon, so I can imagine it doing much better than I’m predicting, but the trailer just doens’t look that original and without a heavy parental presence, box office numbers will be suppressed a bit.
Oscar Prospects: Weak. Any animated film that comes out will go on the short list, but by the looks of this film, I don’t envision a Best Animated Feature slate where it’s on the final ballot.

Fast & Furious 6

Premise: From IMDb: “Agent Hobbs enlists the aid of Dom and team to help bring a rival gang, led by Owen Shaw, to justice. In exchange for clear records, they must put an end to their schemes, no matter how personal the cost.”
Box Office Prospects: $180 M
Expectations: Strong. The fifth film in the franchise was its best performer, leading to an inevitable sequel and a surprising number of them so far. The franchise only failed to pass $120 million once and that was when most of the cast was removed from the third film. Most of the key players are back and more have been added, so we’ll see if the series can continue its epic pace. I don’t think it will hit the $209 million high of its predecessor, but I think it should easily beat out the other four features.

The Hangover, Part III

Premise: From IMDb: “This time, there’s no wedding. No bachelor party. What could go wrong, right? But when the Wolfpack hits the road, all bets are off.”
Box Office Prospects: $225 M
Expectations: Solid. Diminishing returns isn’t putting much of a dent in this series’ numbers, the second film still surpassing the $250 million mark. Will returning to Las Vegas push the third film over its predecessors or will a been-there-done-that mentality set in and a further reduction in box office receipts occur. I’m leaning towards the latter.

Before Midnight

Premise: From IMDb: “We meet Jesse and Celine nine years on in Greece. Almost two decades have passed since their first meeting on that train bound for Vienna.”
Box Office Prospects: $7 M
Expectations: Decent. One of the few limited-release franchises out there has come up with a third entry and while none of them have built out of their niche cinematic comfort zone, the prior two films both made just over $5.5 million. Adjusting for ticket price inflation, leads me to push the total up slightly over that, but I hestitate to say that it will do much better than this.
Oscar Prospects: Strong. The second film in this well respected film series from Richard Linklater should be a strong contender for a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination, since the prior installment picked up the same nomination in 2004. It probably won’t result in a win, though. And with the new rules for Best Picture, a dedicated group of fans of the franchise could push it into the final Best Picture slate, but that will be an overwhelming task.

May 31-Jun. 2, 2013

Now You See Me

Premise: From IMDb: “FBI agents track a team of illusionists who pull off bank heists during their performances and reward their audiences with the money.”
Box Office Prospects: $120 M
Expectations: Unknown. It’s hard to know how a non-franchise vehicle will perform in the midst of a franchise-heavy summer environment, but if there’s one film I can see as a potential breakout hit, it’s this one. Mixing the popular heist genre with prestidigitation is an interesting concept and with the right marketing, I could imagine it doing very well at the box office.
Oscar Prospects: Weak. If it were a particularly poor year in visual effects, I could see a movie like this pulling off a surprise nomination; however, there’s nothing weak about visual effects these days.

The Purge

Premise: From IMDb: “If on one night every year, you could commit any crime without facing consequences, what would you do? Over the course of a single night, a family will be tested to see how far they will go to protect themselves when the vicious outside world breaks into their home.”
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Expectations: Average. New horror films have struggled in recent years to make much at the box office and unless they fall into the supernatural category, it’s even more difficult. This film has an extremely interesting concept, but I don’t think it will be lively enough to do boffo business.