Nov. 2-4, 2012

Flight

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “When I first saw the film’s trailer, I dismissed it as a superfluous drama. Word out of the New York Film Festival is that it’s director Robert Zemeckis’ best bet at Oscar consideration in over a decade. The film is sure to feature prominently in the Oscar race for Best Actor with Washington receiving excellent reviews. The film could also be bolstered by its premise into snagging a coveted Best Picture berth, though I’m not sure Zemeckis will be on the ballot for Best Director.”
Oscar Results: Zemeckis didn’t make the cut, nor did the film in Best Picture, but it still managed the expected Best Actor nomination and also came up with a stick-it-to-Looper nomination in Best Original Screenplay.
Box Office Prediction: $85 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Solid. Denzel Washington is one of the more important names at the box office these days. Many of his films, even ones that critics don’t adore, have been hits with audiences. This nailbiter should have little problem pleasing a finnicky electorate looking for some pre-election frivolity.”
Box Office Results: $93.8 M
Thoughts: [Success] Building entirely on Washington’s name, Flight exceeded expectations handily. The critics didn’t do much to bolster the film’s success, though.

The Man with the Iron Fists

Box Office Prediction: $20 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Underwhelming: Attempts to find the newest martial arts film to make waves overseas continues with this feature that doesn’t look particularly engaging. There are some noted names in the cast, which could bolster attendance, but against both Flight and Wreck-It Ralph, the film will struggle in its initial outing and be deluged by everything that releases after it.”
Box Office Results: $15.6 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] No number of prominent actors could sell the film beyond its niche market. Still, this result seems about on par with past performance for this genre.

Wreck-It Ralph

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “The film seems a lock for a Best Animated Feature nomination and after critics were laudatory, but minimally so, of the new Pixar film, it could emerge as one of the year’s stronger contenders in that category.”
Oscar Results: It did emerge as a prime contender in the Best Animated Feature race sweeping through a number of awards groups late in the game. However, it’s youner-skewing premise couldn’t hold off Pixar’s weakest critical success since Cars (Cars 2 wasn’t a critical success, thus its exclusion from this list) managed the victory.
Box Office Prediction: $300 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Strong: The video game premise, mixed with Disney’s re-emergence as a strong voice outside of Pixar’s brand recognition, should make this one a hit.”
Box Office Results: $188.9 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Success] I have been overestimating appreciation for animation for some time. For years, with so few major animated efforts in the marketplace, a $300 million total was expected. These days, because the market is almost flooded, a lower tally should be considered more frequently. Still, nearly $200 million in the U.S. alone should be enough to declare this a success.

A Late Quartet

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “You don’t put three Oscar-nominated and -winning actors in a small ensemble drama and not expect it to be considered. The trailer looks interesting, but not revelatory, which will likely push this feature aside for other stronger contenders.”
Oscar Results: Not only was the film pushed aside, it was forgotten almost as quickly as it was remembered. The Academy didn’t even bat an eyelash at the film, which didn’t get much of an awards push.
Box Office Prediction: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Mediocre: An independent film starring actors most audiences wouldn’t rush out to see should play well in limited release, but will need Oscar support to strike out beyond typical indie Oscar season fare.”
Box Office Results: $1.6 M
Thoughts: [Flop] This cast should have at least guaranteed a strong run on the indie circuit, but without consideration for awards, the film had to make do with word of mouth, which didn’t seem to be that strong.

Nov. 9-11, 2012

Skyfall

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “James Bond doesn’t do well with Oscar, yet taking on singer-songwriter Adele to pen your legendary title track will bolster its chances tremendously. With its classic Bond stylings, Adele’s song is undoubtedly the frontrunner to take home the Original Song Oscar, something none of the prior Bond films have managed (and few have even merited nomination). The film itself could appear in a number of tech categories, but will otherwise be absent from the Oscar race.”
Oscar Results: As expected, Skyfall conquered Best Original Song, and earned a handful of other nominations, the best showing a Bond film has ever had at the Oscars. It even managed to pick up a second award (in a tie with Zero Dark Thirty) for Best Sound Editing.
Box Office Prediction: $200 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent: In spite of the mediocre reviews the last Bond film received, it still managed the highest non-adjusted box office total in history. This third Daniel Craig version has been bowling over critics and could excite audiences as well. They’ll go to see Bond regardless of what it’s about, but if it’s good enough, they’ll keep coming back and could make this one of the most popular in the series.”
Box Office Results: $304.4 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] Not only did it blow away all prior modern-era Bond films, it pulled into third in the all-time adjusted list of best Bond performances behind only Goldfinger and Thunderball.

Lincoln

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Spielberg is in the Oscar conversation anytime he makes a movie. Even after the lukewarm reviews of War Horse, he rode out the bad press and secured an Oscar nomination anyway. This time though, if critics seem to line up for the film, he could be positioning his biggest Oscar contender in more than a decade (Saving Private Ryan was his last). Scores of nominations in the creative categories should help secure the film’s position in the Best Picture race with a number of acting nominations possible, which should also result in a Best Director nomination for Spielberg.”
Oscar Results: Everything came to pass. Lincoln was the year’s most nominated film with twelve nominations, including three in the acting categories. That success didn’t translate to wins, however, as the film only secured awards for Best Art Direction and a first for Spielberg, an acting award to Best Actor Daniel Day-Lewis who also managed another feat, becoming the first actor to win 3 in the lead acting category.
Box Office Prediction: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Solid. Steven Spielberg hasn’t had a major box office hit in some time. His recent output has largely been targeted at Oscar voters. This time, though, the film is receiving solid responses from critics and audiences love expansive dramas. This should be a decent hit in America.”
Box Office Results: $182.0 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Success] Even for a Spielberg film, this result is pretty spectacular. What amounts to a history lesson for a lot of audiences, the film still managed to position itself as one of the season’s biggest box office winners.

Nov. 16-18, 2012

Breaking Dawn, Part 2

Box Office Prediction: $400 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent: It’s the final film in the series and should prove the box office behemoth that the other films have, with the added benefit of being the last movie.”
Box Office Results: $292.3 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Not even the final film could push the film past an old series high of $300 million. The film seemed locked to a very specific demographic who saw it just as frequently as it saw the past films. Unlike most franchises, this one was relatively even in performance with only two films underperforming the $290 average mark.

Anna Karenina

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “The prospects of the film are confusing. It would seem the perfect recipe for Oscar contention, but reviews weren’t exactly rapturous. The creative categories are virtually assured, but director Joe Wright’s Oscar history has been weak since his Atonement made the Best Picture slate. This is more in the tradition of Atonement than his later failures The Soloist and Hanna, so we’ll see how Oscar voters react.”
Oscar Results: Oscar voters seemed to agree with critics and mostly gave it a pass. Not even Wright mainstay Keira Knightley could snag a Best Actress nomination, leaving the film with only four nominations for Original Score, Cinematography, Art Direction and Costume Design winning only one for the designs of costumer Jacqueline Durran.
Box Office Prediction: $70 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Unknown. This is the kind of movie that could be a hit with audiences, but it has to be marketed correctly. If they can do that, this could be a modest hit (what I’m currently predicting). If not, it will likely make only around $20 or $30 million.”
Box Office Results: $12.8 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Without critics behind it and no real shot at Oscar consideration, audiences never got the push they needed to make this a major success.

Nov. 21-25, 2012

Life of Pi

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Many of the people I talk with say this one is a surefire nominee for Best Picture, but I cannot get past its lackluster trailer. I’ve never read the book, nor did I know about the book before it came out. Ang Lee’s a terrific filmmaker and he could earn the film a few nominations, but unless critics are absolutely blown away and it becomes a decent box office hit, I will remain dubious about its chances outside of the creative categories.”
Oscar Results: Critics in line? Check. Box office strong? Check. Oscar contender? 11 times over. Earning a Best Picture nomination among many others, Life of Pi became the year’s most Oscared film earning four prizes, all of them in the creative categories. That’s quite a success all things considered.
Box Office Prediction: $80 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. The most recent comparison to this style of movie is Martin Scorsese’s Hugo, which made a modest $73 million at the box office. With no big names and a premise that is only familiar to those who are familiar with the book, it will be an extremely tough sell. Only critic and Oscar recognition will likely bolster its tally.”
Box Office Results: $123.4 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Major Success] With no big name actors, no audience-recognizable director, Life of Pi built amazing word of mouth through its Thanksgiving release and built up a hefty war chest.

Red Dawn

Box Office Prediction: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Modest. This is a huge gamble. A Battleship-level gamble at that. The original ’80’s piece was a hit, grossing nearly just north of $90 million in 2012 dollars. The problem is the Cold War was still in full swing in 1984. North Korea isn’t much in the news lately and no one would suggest there’s even remotely the same level of fear or hype surrounding their activities. The key to selling the film has been targeting young audiences and while it could be a success, it’s releasing against a number of other films that will be dominating that demographic. If it catches on, it could have a modest final tally, otherwise, it will be a bomb.”
Box Office Results: $44.8 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] It may have been a gamble and I did overvalue its performance, but all things considered, almost $45 million isn’t too terrible for a movie like this. Sure, the teenage audience they targeted didn’t turn out as they should, but curiosity seekers showed up to make it a decent performer.

Rise of the Guardians

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “This is the film people are discussing as being the year’s winner even before many have seen it. DreamWorks Animation has proven they are willing to work at improving story and concept to compete with Pixar and their efforts may finally be paying off. With very little else sitting atop critics’ minds as the definitive best animated feature of the year, if the buzz is real, this should sweep the year-end awards leading towards an easy victory at the Oscars.”
Oscar Results: The buzz was not only unreal, it was disappointing. Critics were dismissive (unfairly so, in my opinion) and the audiences just couldn’t get the gumption to see the film even though it was one of the best for-family films released over the holidays. It couldn’t even receive a perfunctory Best Animated Feature nomination when signs were pointing to it.
Box Office Prediction: $450 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “This is DreamWorks’ ace in the hole. Early word is the film is phenomenal and the marketing is doing an admirable job pushing the film. With the holiday theme and family audiences needing something to attend other than Life of Pi and the wake of Wreck-It Ralph having almost subsided, Rise of the Guardians will likely be the top animated film of the year.”
Box Office Results: $103.3 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Animated films shouldn’t perform this poorly, but Rise of the Guardians proved that a poor marketing campaign and no support from the typically reliable film critics, make for disappointment.

Silver Linings Playbook

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “This is one of the top contenders this year. Apart from its audience award from Toronto, Harvey Weinstein is the definitive campaigner, having netted the Best Picture prize two years running, he is the odds-on favorite to carry the torch to a third year. Films that appeal to multiple demographics and have feel-good emotions play well with Academy members, but this could be Weinstein’s toughest sell in awhile. A raft of nominations is assured.”
Oscar Results: The film was starting to fade as the year drew on and critics were largely bypassing it, groups giving minimal support, largely to eventual Best Actress winner Jennifer Lawrence. Then, the nominations were announced and Harvey’s hard sell paid off, netting it a 30-year-old precedent earning nominations in all four acting categories. While the film never managed to get past Lawrence for Best Actress, it was enough of a success to show that even Harvey can sell a movie that rolled out at the box office poorly.
Box Office Prediction: $145 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Solid. If there’s one thing Harvey Weinstein is good at besides winning Oscars, its selling his films to mass audiences. A film like The King’s Speech never would have been the $138 million success it was. With two appealing, box office-drawing stars in front of the camera, an audience award from Toronto and the prospects of big business with the Oscars, this should easily eclipse the period drama King’s Speech.”
Box Office Results: $128.8 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Success] In spite of the tediously slow platform release, Silver Linings Playbook proved to be a somewhat potent force at the early 2013 box office, chugging away as the Oscar season progressed and still managing a strong near-$130 million total.

Hitchcock

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Strong. The film was apparently good enough to be pushed directly into the 2012 Oscar race. Talk has surrounded mostly Helen Mirren and Anthony Hopkins as nominees, but the movie will likely score mentions in Art Direction, Costume Design and Makeup if nowhere else. The film, if it impresses critics and audiences alike, could even turn those few nominations into a Best Picture mention.”
Oscar Results: It was the film that could and then didn’t. Critics pounced on it and the audiences stayed away. Anthony Hopkins was barely a blip on the Oscar radar and Helen Mirren seemed poise to strike out as the film’s second nominee. Yet, on Oscar morning, the only category it still appeared in was Makeup and I think that was the real travesty.
Box Office Prediction: $20 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Niche. Film enthusiasts will flock to the film, but this ain’t your typical box office phenom. While Anthony Hopkins, Helen Mirren and Scarlett Johansson have name recognition, their names alone aren’t likely to pull people to the film. I will be surprised if it’s a hit, but I won’t be upset.”
Box Office Results: $6.0 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] It wasn’t a hit, not even with the specialty marketplace. A movie about legendary Alfred Hitchcock should have done so much better than this, but it didn’t, further defining why Oscar didn’t seem to care.

Rust and Bone

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “The only real talk I’ve heard about the film is for Cotillard as Best Actress. This would be her first appearance since she won the Oscar, but the Academy hasn’t shown its appreciation for foreign actresses. Her continual presence in American films may boost her support, since it appears she’s no one-trick pony. We’ll see if it materializes into a Best Actress nomination. There is no dearth of competition this year.”
Oscar Results: There was a point when most thought she was assured a Best Actress nomination. She appeared on nearly every critic and non-critic group list of the five Best Actresses, but Oscar voters thought one foreign actress on the list was enough and Emmanuelle Riva was it.
Box Office Prediction: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. A French foreign Language film may play well to a small market of audiences, but even a Best Actress nomination for star Marion Cotillard isn’t likely to give the film much boost.”
Box Office Results: $2.1 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] No Oscar nominations and little support from critics left this one in the dust.

Nov. 30-Dec. 2, 2012

Kiling Them Softly

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “This was to be an Oscar contender, but the release window and limited talk about the film suggests its hopes are going to be dashed and with the heavy Best Actor slate working against Pitt, I doubt he’ll be very successful.”
Oscar Results: The film wasn’t very successful, the Oscars being the least of its troubles.
Box Office Prediction: $55 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Unknown. Brad Pitt needs a hit. This genre thriller might be the right mixture for audiences rebounding from Thanksgiving festivities. The problem is, films that release on the weekend after Thanksgiving tend to be dumped there for a reason. The film could be a dud with the Thanksgiving releases walking all over it.”
Box Office Results: $15.0 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] With no support from the Academy and critics giving it a passing grade, even Brad Pitt’s name couldn’t sell the film to wide audiences.