December 7, 2012

Playing for Keeps

Box Office Prediction: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. Gerard Butler frequently struggles to get people to his movies. Typically, he has to be paired with a prominent starlet to gain any kind of traction. Looking at his total for Gamer, I’m thinking we could be seeing something on that level. If he can score a higher total than that, perhaps its subject matter that causes him to struggle rather than himself.”
Box Office Results: $13.1 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Nope. Gerard Butler just can’t sell a ticket. Unless he’s starring with a popular female actor, no one seems to care about his movies.

Hyde Park on Hudson

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Once thought to be a prime contender for the Oscars this year, a dreary response from critics has pretty much sunk the film’s chances. It’s possible the film could still figure in Art Direction or Costume Design and Supporting Actress Olivia Williams could be a surprise nominee, but I’m doubtful on all of these counts.”
Oscar Results: And so it came to pass. The film was atrocious and it suffered for it with the Oscars.
Box Office Prediction: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. It’s an indie, so I don’t expect much out of the box office, but without critics to bolster attendance, the film will do very little good business.”
Box Office Results: $6.4 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] A little higher than I expected, but not enough to declare its total a surprise.

December 14, 2012

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Depending on whether the film can capture the imagination of viewers the way his first three Middle Earth films did, Jackson could find himself in contention again. A lot rests on whether we’re looking at a return to greatness or more good-to-mediocre work like Jackson’s post-Rings outings King Kong and The Lovely Bones. If it’s a hit with critics, look for consideration in Best Picture, Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay and every technical and creative category under the sun.”
Oscar Results: The critics weren’t rapturous, nor were audiences. Those two factors led it to a handful of creative and tech nominations, but not a single win.
Box Office Prediction: $400 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Strong. The Lord of the Rings trilogy is one of the top earners in history and I see little reason to doubt that Peter Jackson can continue that streak with this first part in a new trilogy.”
Box Office Results: $303.0 M
Thoughts: [Success] Whether it’s the bloated length or the lack of strong notices from critics, Peter Jackson’s first of three Hobbit films did well, but not exceptionally so.

December 21, 2012

Jack Reacher

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None. Maybe some technical nods, but I’m doubtful.”
Oscar Results: Not even the tech stuff. $80 million just isn’t the stuff of Oscar legend and there were plenty of other more visually and orally arresting films last year.
Box Office Prediction: $80 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. With that awful first trailer, Cruise’s film may have lost audience interest early and will need strong word of mouth and a much better second trailer to regain momentum.”
Box Office Results: $80.1 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Cruise still knows how to pull in audiences, but not to the extent he used to. The premise probably didn’t help the film find an audience and fans of the source material were put off, which may have contributed to its failure to become a bona fide hit.

Monsters, Inc. 3D

Box Office Prediction: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “The Lion King remains the undisputed monarch of 3D-converted animated re-releases. While I dont expect it to do the near-$100 million King did, the holiday window coupled with the impending release of the sequel should goose business and may push Monsters, Inc. into the #2 slot, though Titanic’s $57.8 million might be hard to attain, leaving it stuck in third.”
Box Office Results: $34.0 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] The film couldn’t even surpass other Disney 3D re-releases, which pretty much suggests the film wasn’t one of the most celebrated. It lagged behind Finding Nemo 3D, which further emphasizes how this post-converting 3D re-release fad seems to be fading.

This Is 40

Box Office Prediction: $120 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Solid. The pseudo-sequel to Judd Apatow’s Knocked Up may prove popular with fans of the original. Apatow and and his ilk have struggled to find footing in recent years, so my prediction may be a bit overzealous. Anything short of that total won’t be surprising, but may be disappointing.”
Box Office Results: $67.5 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Without the leads of Knocked Up, the previews didn’t quite sell the sequel-ish concept, which made for a weaker box office performance, which suggests the Apatow name isn’t what it used to be…at least not Apatow as the director.

Zero Dark Thirty

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Any Oscar winning director will become the talk of Oscar consideration with their next project, and being the first woman to win Best Director, the pressure will be intense for her to replicate or at least come close to replicating her prior success. The talk will be all over this film and I expect it to get a Best Picture nomination even if Bigelow isn’t cited for Best Director, just based on early perception of it being a strong contender. If critics lambast it, things might change.”
Oscar Results: This was probably one of the most prescient thing I said last year. Before the critics started handing out prizes, I called a potential Best Picture-no-Director nomination for Bigelow. The film did adequately at the Oscars, even taking home a single Oscar in a tie with Skyfall for Best Sound Editing, but for the most part, the film didn’t catch on in spite of strong notices from critics.
Box Office Prediction: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Unknown. The Hurt Locker did ok business, but was released in the Summer long before it was an Oscar frontrunner. This time, Kathryn Bigelow’s project is releasing in prime real estate. While it’s not precisely the type of film audiences like to flock to over the holidays, a mixture of appreciation for her landmark prior project and strong notices from Critics with Oscar buzz may be enough to make it a plausible hit.”
Box Office Results: $95.7 M
Thoughts: [Success] Bigelow may not be one of the few directors who can take war in Iraq and Afghanistan and make it profitable. All other comers have failed to ignite box office interest, but The Hurt Locker didn’t do well until its Oscar haul, but this one did quite well, perhaps because of its retelling of the hunt for Osama bin Laden. So, it was a bigger hit than I expected and may be the film to break the logjam in terms of war/terrorism at the box office.

Amour

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Apart from a Best Foreign Language Film nomination that I would be shocked if it didn’t get, some are predicting stars Jean-Louis Trintingnant and Emmanuelle Riva will be contenders for acting Oscar nominations. I don’t think the possibilities are that strong, but I won’t entirely avoid the idea. Its best shot, however, is in the writing category.”
Oscar Results: Riva almost didn’t make the Best Actress slate, that is if you don’t look at the facts during Oscar season. She was far from the weakest contender and after her major precursor wins, she became almost inevitable. Trintingnant’s chances never materialized, but the film did nab a handful of other nominations including Best Picture, something of a success for all intents.
Box Office Prediction: $3 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Standard. Few foreign language films manage to move from indie success to broad national support. Amour darker subject matter will be a turn off to many audiences and even strong support from the Academy won’t do much to bolster its chances.”
Box Office Results: $6.7 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] It overperformed my expectations, though with all the support from Oscar nominations and critics, it should have done a bit better than $6.7 million.

On the Road

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “The initial reviews weren’t great, so the film will likely be ignored throughout the Oscar campaigning season.”
Oscar Results: Not only was it ignored, I don’t think many people even realized it had been released yet.
Box Office Prediction: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Unknown. Jack Kerouac’s Beat Generation might make this a huge hit, but who are we kidding? The reviews out of the festivals have been largely mediocre and the stars of the film haven’t had much success selling their films on the national market unless attached to a major property. I doubt it will do even as well as I’m predicting.”
Box Office Results: $717.8 K
Thoughts: [Flop] Stars of box office hits aren’t draws to independent cinema any more so than indie legends taking to major studio films. A low total was expected, but even this sub-$1 million total is pretty abysmal.

December 28, 2012

Django Unchained

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “After Tarantino made huge waves with his nominations for Inglourious Basterds, many will be proclaiming him a major contender this year. A minor contender for sure simply because of his film’s subject matter; however, as his post-Pulp Fiction career shows, he’s been largely hit-or-miss with emphasis on the miss. Still, he has a good shot at nominations in several creative categories, but the above-the-line stuff may be tougher to achieve…except writing. He does fairly well with the Writers Branch.”
Oscar Results: Not only did he nail the Best Original Screenplay nomination, he took home the Oscar, even if undeservedly. The film managed several nominations, including Best Picture, but even Harvey’s post-game analysis indicated he mismanaged Django‘s Oscar campaign.
Box Office Prediction: $80 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. Quentin Tarantino has made a name for himself among audiences. While he doesn’t always create unqualified successes, this anti-slavery actioner has a chance at very broad audience support. I don’t expect it to reach Inglourious Basterds or Pulp Fiction levels, but surpassing the Kill Bill films is very likely.”
Box Office Results: $162.8 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] Far away one of his best performances at the box office, a total that far surpassed Inglourious Basterds. While in total, this was his best performance, Pulp Fiction saw a much higher attendance and ticket price inflation puts it roughly $50 million ahead of Django. Still, this is a staggering achievement for a director who had begun to slip as a box office draw last decade.

The Guilt Trip

Box Office Prediction: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Solid. A holiday film from an actor (Seth Rogen) whose had intermittent success at the box office. The combination is fairly likely to result in strong, if not exactly earth-shattering business.”
Box Office Results: $37.1 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Don’t feel guilty for not having seen it. All signs point to it not having been a good movie. Barbra Streisand, like Robert Redford, just isn’t the box office draw she used to be. Perhaps being out of the limelight for so long hasn’t helped, but appearing in an unfunny Seth Rogen film didn’t help.

Les Misérables

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Sight-unseen, its paper trail looks very Oscar capable. Recent musicals haven’t done so well with only Dreamgirls making a splash at the Oscars after the big emergence of Chicago ten years ago. Still, if the critics line up for it, I expect it to be a big nominee, in the range of 10 to 12 nominations, mostly in the creative categories, but also in acting, writing and especially Best Picture.”
Oscar Results: In spite of a few precursor setbacks, Les Misérables still managed a healthy number of Oscar nominations, including Best Picture, Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress, which it won. It wasn’t all rosey on Oscar nomination morning with the film failing to nab several expected nominations, like Best Director, but the results were still overall positive.
Box Office Prediction: $100 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Solid. It will likely be the musical event of the fall (the only musical event of the fall, really, but that’s hardly important) and with the passionate subject matter and well known actors, the hit potential is high. Dreamgirls did fantastic business a few years ago and this has the same level of prominence in terms of name recognition, perhaps even more. It was a hit on Broadway, which may help make it a hit on the big screen. My prediction may be low-balled if critics embrace the film as well as audiences and especially if it’s a big Oscar nominee.”
Box Office Results: $148.8 M
Thoughts: [Success] It was a close race for a time between this and Tarantino’s film and while $148.8 million is certainly a success, especially for a musical, but one can’t help but wonder if a better director than close-up happy Tom Hooper. I wouldn’t balk much at this total though as it’s still pretty good all things considered.

Parental Guidance

Box Office Prediction: $100 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Strong. Although The Guilt Trip is more holiday oriented, the trailer for Parental Guidance looks more approachable and with more recognizable faces per capita, the possibilities are strong this will do very well.”
Box Office Results: $77.2 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] It’s not a bad total, but it isn’t what it probably should have been for a holiday-friendly feature. Having some notable comedians on the cast list helped get it where it is, but ultimately audiences seemed to agree with critics on how been-there-done-that the film felt.

Promised Land

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “This is a film that critics will have to fall head-over-heels for to get it into the Oscars’ sights. I think it has the potential to be a top tier nominee, but it all depends on the reviews.”
Oscar Results: Critics didn’t seem to care for it much and thus an Oscar campaign never built up steam. Gus Van Sant is hit-or-miss with the Academy and Promised just wasn’t all that it could have been.
Box Office Prediction: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Unknown. They’re going for a platform release, but the film’s success all depends on its Oscar prospects. If critics don’t support it, it will never make a successful nationwide launch. However, I think it’s very likely we’ll be seeing this one building on solid word of mouth.”
Box Office Results: $7.6 M
Thoughts: [Flop] The marketing campaign for the film was atrocious. Anyone who can’t sell an “important” film starring Matt Damon should really start seeking a new line of work.

Quartet

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “That cast alone should make it an Oscar contender, but a lot will depend on reviews, which could sink the film’s chances entirely or make it soar.”
Oscar Results: While it had an Oscar-qualifying run, it came out far too late to be of much impact and although it’s directed by a Hollywood legend and stars acting legends, the premise just didn’t resonate early enough or fast enough. And since even similarly demographic-targeted The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel couldn’t crack the ceiling in spite of strong box office and a heavy push, what chance did Quartet really have.
Box Office Prediction: $10 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Average. It has some very big names in the cast, but doesn’t seem like the kind of film audiences will rush right out to see. However, if the Oscars look at it and give it some attention, it could overperform my expectations.”
Box Office Results: $18.0 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE, OPENED 1/11/13)
Thoughts: [Minor Success] It didn’t release until 2013 and without Oscar contention to bolster attendance, a sub-$20 million result isn’t terribly bad.