There are no two bigger months at theaters. While the Summer may provide box office swing, both box office and Oscars dominate the final two months of the year with November likely the biggest of them all. This year, a number of top notch films will compete for audience dollars and critics’ appreciation going into the final weeks of pre-Oscar wrangling. This November features one of the most impressive line-ups Oscar has seen in some time, with many of them strong contenders for one or multiple nominations.

July 3, 2013

Despicable Me 2

Premise: From IMDb: “Gru is recruited by the Anti-Villain League to help deal with a powerful new super criminal.”
Box Office Prospects: $240 M
Expectations: Strong. The sequel to a popular hit is sure to be box office magic and with nothing but Monsters University as competition, it should have a strong opening weekend, pushing it to a solid post-original performance. Still, the villainy of the original was part of the reason it was so interesting. This time, we know Gru to be a big softy, so other than good will left over from the original, there isn’t much left to entice the audience.
Oscar Prospects: A certain nominee for Best Animated Feature and, depending on the quality, a potential winner as well.

The Lone Ranger

Premise: From IMDb: “Native American warrior Tonto recounts the untold tales that transformed John Reid, a man of the law, into a legend of justice.”
Box Office Prospects: $175 M
Expectations: Unknown. it’s hard to estimate where this adaptation of the classic television series will fall. Outside of the Pirates of the Caribbean franchise, director Gore Verbinski and actor Johnny Depp’s box office performances have been lackluster or wildly varied with Depp’s biggest successes coming from his frequent collaborations with Tim Burton. The trailer suggests a film that’s similar to Pirates, but more closely resembles the new Sherlock Holmes. Looking back, Wild Wild West is the best comparison for this film and that feature took roughly $113 million back in 1999 (adjusting to $177 million in today’s dollars). And that film was considered something of a flop. But like that film, it’s buoyed by a notable performance from a somewhat successful box office draw, so I’m going to put it down for a cautious total that matches Wild Wild West, but it could get up to $300 million if it can match the Pirates success.
Oscar Prospects: While it’s unlikely that Johnny Depp can ride another Gore Verbinski film to an Oscar nomination remains to be seen, but this Summer tentpole doesn’t look like a top-tier Oscar contender. Consideration in the creative and technical categories is likely including possible inclusions in Original Score, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Visual Effects.

July 12, 2013

Grown Ups 2

Premise: From IMDb: “After moving his family back to his hometown to be with his friends and their kids, Lenny (Adam Sandler), finds out that between old bullies, new bullies, schizo bus drivers, drunk cops on skis, and 400 costumed party crashers sometimes crazy follows you.”
Box Office Prospects: $120 M
Expectations: Solid. More of the same. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t. I think the film will still pull solid numbers, but won’t come close to its predecessor.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Pacific Rim

Premise: From IMDb: “When an alien attack threatens the Earth’s existence, giant robots piloted by humans are deployed to fight off the menace.”
Box Office Prospects: $220 M
Expectations: Unknown. There’s the $300 million tally for the original Transformers and the $85 million total for Real Steel. Giant robots haven’t quite found their box office dominance yet. Michael Bay’s film had fanboy appeal thanks to its two-and-a-half-decade influence of young boys as an animated series and toy line. Yet, this seems to be far more action heavy than the Hugh Jackman starrer. With the disaster elements, giant robots and effects-laden brilliance of Guillermo del Toro, I’m going to hedge my bets and push it to a total closer to Transformers than Steel.
Oscar Prospects: Unlikely to compete outside of the tech categories, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Visual Effects nominations are all strong possibilities.

Fruitvale Station (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “The true story of Oscar, a 22-year-old Bay Area resident, who crosses paths with friends, enemies, family, and strangers on the last day of 2008.”
Box Office Prospects: $10 M
Expectations: Solid. It may be The Weinstein Company and not Fox Searchlight, but this film feels a great deal like Beasts of the Southern Wild. A Summer release isn’t the best place for a film like this, so I’m going to stick close to Beasts $13 million total.
Oscar Prospects: The Weinstein Company picked this up at Sundance, thinking about how to turn it into an Oscar nominee. Keep your mind open to several categories for the film, mostly in the above-the-line categories and not the creative or techs.

July 19, 2013

The Conjuring

Premise: From IMDb: “Paranormal investigators Ed and Lorraine Warren work to help a family terrorized by a dark presence in their farmhouse. Forced to confront a powerful entity, the Warrens find themselves caught in the most terrifying case of their lives.”
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Expectations: Average. There seems to be a sweet spot for haunted house/supernatural horror films. Looking at the last couple of years, nearly all of them ended up around $50 million at the box office, including The Woman in Black, the film that most closely resembles this feature.
Oscar Prospects: None.

R.I.P.D.

Premise: From IMDb: “A recently slain cop joins a team of undead police officers working for the Rest in Peace Department and tries to find the man who murdered him.”
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Expectations: Weak. Looking too much like Men in Black might help it pick up some market share. However, opening against RED 2 and The Conjuring, it’s male-targeted demographic is going to be quite busy and it’s beginning to look like it may be one of the season’s biggest flops.
Oscar Prospects: Like Men-in-Black to which it is easily comparable, it could be a strong contender for Best Makeup and Hairstyling. Consideration in the sound categories and Best Visual Effects depend on how the film performs at the box office.

RED 2

Premise: From IMDb: “Retired black-ops CIA agent Frank Moses reunites his unlikely team of elite operatives for a global quest to track down a missing portable nuclear device.”
Box Office Prospects: $80 M
Expectations: Decent. The first film was a big success, but will lightning strike twice for a film whose gimmick could easily wear thin. The opening weekend will tell us more, but for now, I’m predicting a total under its predecessor.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Turbo

Premise: From IMDb: “A freak accident might just help an everyday garden snail achieve his biggest dream: winning the Indy 500.”
Box Office Prospects: $200 M
Expectations: Strong. With its nearest competitor two weeks old, this original animated feature could find itself reaping the benefit. It’s a decent spot to release a film, so $200 million is what it should expect to make. If it’s well received, it could go higher.
Oscar Prospects: One of the few non-sequel animated features this year to be a solid Best Animated Feature contender. It’s probably DreamWorks best chance at a nomination.

Only God Forgives (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “Julian, a drug-smuggler thriving in Bangkok’s criminal underworld, sees his life get even more complicated when his mother compels him to find and kill whoever is responsible for his brother’s recent death.”
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Expectations: Unknown. Drive was his first and only hit. His debut films, the Pusher trilogy never made it into U.S. Box Office release, so based on what’s come before, I’d say that the mere presence of Ryan Gosling will give his potential a goose, but not much of one.
Oscar Prospects: Nicholas Winding Refn’s prior film, Drive picked up a nomination in the tech categories and word out of Cannes wasn’t the kind of indie-breakthrough buzz needed to make it into Oscar’s good graces. I wouldn’t expect to see this one go very far, but a hard push by critics at the end of the year could help.

July 26, 2013

The To-Do List

Premise: From IMDb: “Feeling pressured to become more sexually experienced before she goes to college, Brandy Clark makes a list of things to accomplish before hitting campus in the fall.”
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Expectations: Weak. There’s barely been any advertising for this film and the cast list isn’t terribly exciting. I don’t expect much from it and even my current prediction may be on the high end.
Oscar Prospects: None.

The Wolverine

Premise: From IMDb: “Wolverine makes a voyage to modern-day Japan, where he encounters an enemy from his past that will impact on his future.”
Box Office Prospects: $120 M
Expectations: Unknown. After the poorly received Origins film, the Wolverine character seems to be struggling at the box office. A lot depends on how much of an improvement this film is over its predecessor. Of course, an audience turned off by failure won’t necessarily turn out for a subsequent film. Of course, his competition for the weekend isn’t likely to be much of a hit, so it could give people an opportunity to catch up on something else or give him a whirl.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Blue Jasmine (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “Plot undisclosed.”
Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Expectations: Unknown. Woody Allen has great days and he has bad ones. I’m penciling the film in for an average day and we’ll see how things go.
Oscar Prospects: Always keep an eye out on Woody Allen. While little is known about his new film, his last few have all been Oscar contenders even if they haven’t gotten nominations. His best chances are in the acting categories and Best Original Screenplay. Anywhere else, including Best Picture, will require the adoration of critics and a good box office return.