Jan. 4-6, 2013

Texas Chainsaw 3D

Box Office Prediction: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Another attempt to reboot this franchise. Adding 3D isn’t going to sell the film, but standard operating procedures with horror films will likely bring it into a suitable, if not spectacular box office total.”
Box Office Results: $34.3 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Opening south of expectations isn’t a great performance for horror films, especially when those estimates are already low-balled.

Jan. 11-13, 2013

Gangster Squad

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “That January delay in itself suggests the film, once thought to be a major Oscar contender, wasn’t even remotely good enough to compete. Still, the film could be remembered at the end of the year for its Production Design and Costume Design, but 11 months is a very long time to be remembered.”
Oscar Results: The response from critics was tepid to hostile, suggesting the film won’t have much chance with Oscar. The creative categories are still possible, but anywhere else is unlikely.
Box Office Prediction: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “It has the stars to be a hit, but after it was pushed back to January to “re-shoot” a scene where gunmen opened fire inside a crowded theater, the question is: editing the scene wouldn’t have taken long, so is this delay because early word of mouth wasn’t positive? It could still be a decent hit with very little competition about, but it might be an unmitigated flop.”
Box Office Results: $46.0 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] With the names attached to this film, most would think it was to be a hit. However, getting pushed back typcially indicates the film isn’t as good as expectations and when those expectations aren’t met, poor box office performance follows.

A Haunted House

Box Office Prediction: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “In spite of being generally bad movies, the ” movie” franchise has been modestly successful. While this one isn’t within that lineup, it is similar enough that it could do brisk, but underwhelming business.”
Box Office Results: $40.0 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] It was enough of a success to spawn a sequel, but $40 million isn’t terribly great in the spoof milieu.

Jan. 18-20, 2013

Broken City

Box Office Prediction: $55 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “It has the right stars to be a decent hit, but the premise doesn’t seem terribly original. Releasing in January, especially after the more likely successful Gangster Squad may result in a weaker take for the modern-set film.”
Box Office Results: $19.7 M
Thoughts: [Flop] More big stars unable to translate into box office gold. This total is particulary embarrassing all things considered.

The Last Stand

Box Office Prediction: $80 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Arnold Schwarzeneggar has playing politics, leaving his “acting” career behind. Now that he has his first solo role, we’ll see how successful he can be on his own outside of The Expendables franchise.”
Box Office Results: $12.1 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] The former Governator is no longer a guaranteed box office generator and, apart from his appearance in The Expenables films, nothing suggests he can do much on his own anymore.

Mama

Box Office Prediction: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Demonic possession films are still a hot property even if they are as stale as a six-month-old piece of bread, so expect this one to do decently well with horror audiences.”
Box Office Results: $71.6 M
Thoughts: [Success] Its strong numbers at the box office showcase the strength of possession films. Add in the praise from critics and you have a solid performer.

Jan. 25-27, 2013

Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters

Box Office Prediction: $20 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “This gimmicky kick-ass fairy-tale motif doesn’t have a lot of potential. It reminds me of genre-blending films like Jonah Hex and Priest, that alone should mean a weaker than desired performance.”
Box Office Results: $55.7 M
Thoughts: [Success] Sometimes gimmicks work. Unlike the titles I mentioned previously, this one managed to pique enough interest during a weak time at the box office to generate decent bank.

Movie 43

Box Office Prediction: $55 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “It doesn’t look very good, but with the overload of major stars, it could be a nice box office performer, but unlikely anything truly sensational. Think New Year’s Eve, not Valentine’s Day.”
Box Office Results: $8.8 M
Thoughts: [Flop] It probably should have carried the Alan Smithee name as floppish as it was. The concept was floated for years before finally being made bringing in some huge stars into the mix, none of whom really cared about doing press for the film and the result is a movie no one really cared to see.

Parker

Box Office Prediction: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Obviously, they are hoping tha bringing Jennifer Lopez on will help make Jason Statham bankable. True, his solo efforts have been less than thrilling, but Lopez commands a decent number of fans. Still, I don’t see this as being a breakout hit of any measure.”
Box Office Results: $17.6 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Not even Lopez could make Statham a hit. He’s still got more films coming out, so I assume he works on the cheap for the box office performance of his films wouldn’t justify a very sizable paycheck.

John Dies at the End

Box Office Prediction: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Bubba Ho-Tep did abysmally at the box office, but a cult following has turned schlock meister director Don Coscarelli into a modestly known name in such circles. The premise of John Dies at the End is unusual enough that paired with the trailer’s reference to Bubba, this film could do better than that film did. However, the box office isn’t always kind to cult-classics-in-the-making, so it would take strong word of mouth to get this one up very high at all.”
Box Office Results: $141.9 K
Thoughts: [Flop] Proof that even cult films can’t generate interest in follow-up features. Perhaps people didn’t get that it was from the maker of Bubba Ho-Tep? Perhaps, but my guess is that no one really cared.