Next week, we have only a small handful of precursor announcements, but they include four of the oldest prizes given. The dates listed as (estimated) are based on previous trends and announcement cycles. They are a good guess, but not meant to be unequivocal. The ones listed as (confirmed) have been confirmed by the organizations themselves, though as the Satellites have proven, things can change.

Monday, December 7:
D.C. Area Film Critics Association Awards (confirmed)
Tuesday, December 8:
Los Angeles Film Critics Association Awards (estimated)
Wednesday, December 9:
New York Film Critics Circle Awards (estimated)
Thursday, December 10:
London Film Critics Circle Nominations (estimated)
Friday, December 11:
Detroit Film Critics Nominations (estimated)
Sunday, December 12:
American Film Institute Top 10 (confirmed) & Boston Society of Film Critics Awards (estimated)

Compared to the 74-year-old New York Film Critics Circle awards, the Los Angeles Film Critics still has a good twenty years on most other critics organizations. Giving out its first award in 1975, L.A. is only outdated by the NBR, NYFCC and the National Society of Film Critics in the world of film critic groups giving out awards. And the L.A. critics have generated some very interesting results over the years. Last year, they were one of only a handful of groups to pick the animated WALL-E as Best Picture. Before that, it was There Will Be Blood; back in the ’70s, they picked a few populist choices such as Rocky and Star Wars; top that off with films like Do the Right Thing and Brazil and you have a most interesting group. So interesting that it’s almost impossible to guess what they’ll pick. The one constant, however, is that while it’s winners don’t always, but oftentimes, get nominated (7 of the last 10), they haven’t picked the eventual Best Picture winner since 1993 (Schindler’s List) and before that it was Amadeus in 1984; so whomever they choose may very well see its chances fade exponentially.

As for the New York Film Critics Circle, they have a slightly better track record for winners (4 times in the last 20 years), their nominating potential is more spotty than L.A. While they had a spectacular record from 1975 through 1991, earning a Best Pic nom for every single winner; they have failed six times since then, including 2006 (United 93), 2002 (Far From Heaven) and 2001 (Mulholland Dr.) in the last decade. Otherwise, they seem to have a critical taste for the widely appreciated films like Milk, No Country for Old Men, Brokeback Mountain and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King.

London is the next oldest on this list starting off in 1980. However, they aren’t choosing winners, just nominees, so they won’t be much help. And basing themselves off London release dates, there are bound to be 2008 Oscar qualifiers in their list and several 2009 films not there.

Also originating in 1980, the Boston Society of Film Critics is like most other film critics groups in having very little impact on the Oscars. While their last 7 (of 8 because they picked WALL-E last year in a tie with Slumdog Millionaire) winners have all earned Best Picture nominations, the previous four did not and only their most recent three films since 1993 also won the Oscar. So, good information and a possibly good indication of a nominee, but not necessarily always a good winner predictor.

The Detroit Film Critics don’t have an active record for me to originate their picks, so I’m not certain when they started, but they are only picking nominees this coming week, so there isn’t much else to say.

The last critics group on the list is the Washington DC Area Film Critics Association, giving out their first awards in 2002. For every year but 2005, they only gave out awards. In 2005, they also picked nominees. Four times they’ve picked an eventual nominee. Three times they didn’t. So, they are about 50-50 on compatibility. But, three of those four went on to win Best Picture, so it’s possible that if their choice gets nominated, their choice may also win.

The American Film Institute is far from a critics organization and although they dabbled with their own awards in 2001, they have since continued their tradition of selecting the year’s 10 best films. From 2001 to present, only two films have won Best Picture without first appearing on the AFI list. The first was in 2006 when The Departed failed to make the cut. Then again last year with Slumdog Millionaire. That’s also interesting when you look at how many films made nominations from their ten-best list. 2005 saw all five, 2001 through 2003 saw four, but the remaining years (2004, 2006, 2007 & 2008) featured only three. So, with a limited number of films compared, it’s likely that the films that carry over from their Top 10 to the final list will be the ones most likely to compete for the prize. But how this will compare in a ten-full final remains to be seen. How many films now will carry over directly? My guess is six.