Things are starting to settle for this year’s potential Oscar nominees. With the critics groups nearly finished (National Society of Film Critics will be the last of the major elders to announce later this week) and the guilds preparing to announce their nominees (SAG is the only one with a full slate already in circulation), it’s time to take one last look at the campaign slate as it stands prior to those announcements and before the Oscar nominations are revealed in just over two weeks (Jan. 15, 2015).

The 87th Oscars are shaping up to have one of the lowest grossing Best Picture slates ever. While two major contenders, Unbroken and Into the Woods are doing well at the box office, neither are guaranteed nominees. Right now, it’s look more and more like The Grand Budapest Hotel with its $59 million tally will be the highest grossing of the known quantities.

As you can see by the sea of Blue below, many of the races seem to be solidifying around several major contenders. Some slots are still quite open and we haven’t quite ranked our predictions, but our next list will do that (that’s the one released just prior to the nominations). Even after the below are posted, we’re sure to tweak our predictions over time. Some of them have even changed since the weekend deadline I imposed on our contributors.

We’ve added two more new categories: Best Original Score and Best Foreign Language Film. Our next set of predictions, sometime before the Oscar nominations are annoucned, we’ll reveal nominations in all categories and also rank the Best Picture nominees in the order we think they’ll be selected.

KEY:

Best Picture

• Birdman (WL O) (PP O) (TB N) (TL S)
• Boyhood (WL S) (PP S) (TB S) (TL O/S)
• Foxcatcher (TL D) [New]
• Gone Girl (WL O) (TB N) (TL O)
• The Grand Budapest Hotel (WL O/D) (PP D) [New] (TB D) [New] (TL D) [New]
• The Imitation Game (WL S) (PP C) (TB S) (TL N)
• Into the Woods (WL O/N) (PP O/N) (TB D) [New]
• A Most Violent Year (PP N)
• Mr. Turner (PP O/N)
• Selma (WL N) (PP N) (TB N) (TL N)
• Theory of Everything (WL D) [New] (PP O) (TB N) (TL N)
• Unbroken (WL O) (PP O/S) (TB O) (TL O)
• Whiplash (WL D) [New](TL N)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: The see five films with a fairly firm grasp on this year’s Best Picture race. Birdman and Boyhood have shared many of the critic’s plaudits this year. Selma is slowly shaping up to be one of the films to beat this year and a particularly strong showing in lower categories may put it out front. The Imitation Game has the Weinstein connection and The Theory of Everything seems to be holding on in spite of its notable lack of prominence in recent months. Of the remaining slots, another strong performer from critics, The Grand Budapest Hotel, is probably going to end up in the 6th position. Into the Woods and Unbroken are fairly solid bets, but the latter is facing off against mostly bad reviews and the former isn’t the slam-dunk director Rob Marshall’s Chicago was. Whiplash seems iffy, but has had strong support from voters and could be one of the rare first-feature contenders to place in the final list. I think Gone Girl‘s strong support from the precursors will mean it has a place on the final list, but you have to watch out for Fincher’s Girl with the Dragon Tattoo failure when making this prediction. American Sniper is getting good, but not enthusiastic reviews, but Clint Eastwood’s improvement over his prior outings may be enough for voters to finally tick off his name for Best Picture again.
Peter J. Patrick: If nine, eliminate A Most Violent Year; if eight, Mr. Turner goes; if seven, Unbroken. The remaining seven seem fairly safe to me.
Tripp Burton: It astonishes me, at this point in the season, just how up in the air this category seems. Boyhood, Birdman, Grand Budapest Hotel and Selma all seem to be solid chances for a nomination, and both Theory of Everything and The Imitation Game are also looking like solid contenders. After that, though, there are at least half a dozen films that seem likely to slide in. I think the other three films to make it in (assuming there are 9 nominees) are all getting in for varying reasons: Into the Woods is looking to be the critical and commercial agreement of Oscar season, Gone Girl has enough strong supporters to squeak it onto the list; and a whole year of proclaiming it the front-runner should have created enough inertia for Unbroken. You could also make cases for another list of films getting in, though. In order of likeliness: Foxcatcher, Whiplash, Nightcrawler, A Most Violent Year, Mr. Turner, Wild.
Thomas LaTourrette: If there were only five nominations, it would be easy to get them all this year. They would be Birdman, Boyhood, The Imitation Game, Selma and The Theory of Everything. All are guaranteed nominations. After that, it gets a lot murkier. Whiplash still feels like a safe bet to make the cut. Unbroken may still pull off a nomination, but mixed reviews might drop it out of the race. Gone Girl may also prove that it isn’t gone from the Academy’s mind and may get a nom, though I do not feel as sure about this anymore. Foxcatcher may grab a spot, especially if there are 8, 9 or 10 nominations. Both Into the Woods and newcomer Nightcrawler might make the cut, but I left them off my list this time. They are films I keep debating most about. The one film that I have added back into consideration is The Grand Budapest Hotel, which suddenly seems to be back in contention. Earlier I was hesitant to list it, but it seems likely to be in the mix. It is proving a harder year to predict than I would have expected.

Best Animated Feature

• Big Hero 6 (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Book of Life (PP O)
• The Boxtrolls (WL O) (PP O)(TL O)
• How to Train Your Dragon 2 (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Lego Movie (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Song of the Sea (TB D) [New]
• The Tale of the Princess Kaguya (WL O) (TB D) [New] (TL O)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: Big Hero 6, How to Train Your Dragon 2 and The Lego Movie feel like secure bets. The Tale of the Princess Kaguya won enough precursors to be considered a safe bet. The fifth slot is shaping up to be a race between Laika and a second GKids title in the race. The Boxtrolls hasn’t had the level of acclaim that its predecessors have, but it’s a unique entry in this year’s race, which could give it some added support. Yet, something about Song of the Sea, from the maker of surprise Oscar nominee The Secret of Kells, feels like a potential spoiler. Most critics hadn’t gotten to see the film before voting, which may temper the possible enthusiasm the film could engender.
Peter J. Patrick: The LEGO Movie appears to be the one to beat.
Tripp Burton: There are three Hollywood hits that seem certain to show up here: Big Hero 6, How to Train Your Dragon 2 and The LEGO Movie. Past that, I would bet on two foreign entries sneaking in, as we have seen the last few years.
Thomas LaTourrette: The three main films, Big Hero 6, How to Train Your Dragon 2 and The LEGO Movie all are assured nominations. The studios behind them are planning major campaigns, so it may prove a more interesting race than predicted when this summer many assumed LEGO would win handily. The Boxtrolls will probably overcome middling reviews to claim the fourth spot. The fifth spot is more in flux and comes down to very different folk tales from different countries. I thoroughly enjoyed the colorful The Book of Life, full of Mexican Day of the Dead mythology. I would enjoy seeing it nominated, but don’t think it will be. Song of the Sea follows a more modern Irish tale. However, I think it will probably be passed over. At this point, I think the final spot will go to The Tale of Princess Kaguya, an old, gently filmed, release from the fabled Studio Ghibli of Japan.

Best Director

• Wes Anderson – The Grand Budapest Hotel (WL D) [New] (PP D) [New] (TB D) [New]
• Ava DuVernay – Selma (WL D) [New] (PP N) (TB D) [New] (TL N)
• David Fincher – Gone Girl (TL D) [New]
• Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu – Birdman (WL N) (PP S) (TB N) (TL N)
• Richad Linklater – Boyhood (WL S) (PP S) (TB S) (TL S)
• James Marsh – The Theory of Everything (TB D) [New]
• Morten Tyldum – The Imitation Game (WL N) (PP N)(TL D) [New]

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: Richard Linklater and Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu are the primary locks in this category. Ava DuVernay also seems like a safe bet to become the first black woman ever nominated for Best Director. The other two spots are tougher to call. While David Fincher has gotten some surprising love from the precursors, his film isn’t a solid enough Best Picture contender to be thought of as a good possibility here. Morten Tyldum will benefit from the Harvey Weinstein Oscar machine for his direction of The Imitation Game. I think the fifth slot may go to indie god and long-admired director Wes Anderson whose The Grand Budapest Hotel has done amazingly well in spite of releasing so early in the year.
Peter J. Patrick: James Marsh for The Theory of Everything would be my outside guess.
Tripp Burton: If Birdman, Boyhood, Grand Budapest Hotel and Selma are our leading Best Picture contenders, their directors should make it in here with no problem. For the fifth nominee, I’m going with the momentum of Theory of Everything, but anything can happen with that slot.
Thomas LaTourrette: The directors of Selma, Birdman and Boyhood are all guaranteed nominations, and Ava DuVernay will make history as the first woman of color to be nominated here. The final two slots are much more wide open. I do think that Morten Tyldum will get a nom for his work on The Imitation Game, but the fifth spot could go to anyone. For a long time I assumed it would be Angelina Jolie getting a nom, but the reviews of Unbroken have really diminished that possibility, and I would probably list her about tenth in line for it. I have moved David Fincher (Gone Girl) back into the final five. He may get it, but it would not surprise me if it went to James Marsh (The Theory of Everything), Mike Leigh (Mr. Turner), Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher) or even Christopher Nolan (Interstellar). It really could go to any of them.

Best Actor

• Benedict Cumberbatch – The Imitation Game (WL N) (PP C)(TL C)
• Brendan Gleeson – Calvary (PP D) [New]
• Jake Gyllenhaal – Nightcrawler (WL D) [New] (TB D) [New] (TL D) [New]
• Michael Keaton – Birdman (WL S) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O/S)
• David Oyelowo – Selma (WL N) (PP N) (TB D) [New] (TL N)
• Eddie Redmayne – Theory of Everything (WL O) (PP O) (TB N) (TL N)
• Timothy Spall – Mr. Turner (TB O/D)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: There will be a lot of gasps of shock if Michael Keaton isn’t on the list. The remaining four slots are still in flux, but have been slowly solidifying around Benedict Cumberbatch, Eddie Redmayne and Jake Gyllenhaal. If Selma is as big as I think it will be, David Oyelowo will surely be on this list. An argument could be made for the likes of Timothy Spall, Jack O’Connell, Bradley Cooper, Oscar Isaac and Steve Carell, but ultimately I think they will all fail to make the final list.
Peter J. Patrick: Brendan Gleeson may be a long shot, but Calvary was one of the first screeners to go out which could bolster his chances. He’s my wildcard this year.
Tripp Burton: The general consensus seems to be this category is Michael Keaton, David Oyelowo, Eddie Redmayne, Benedict Cumberbatch and Steve Carrell. With late momentum coming in, though, I am guessing the latter two may fall off in favor of Jake Gyllenhaal (who is picking up a lot of precursor attention) and Timothy Spall (whose film is starting to become a contender and who has Oscar favorite Mike Leigh behind him).
Thomas LaTourrette: All of the acting races seem to have four spots that are strongly filled, with a fifth spot that could go to various people. For lead actor, Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game), Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything), Michael Keaton (Birdman) and David Oyelowo (Selma) all seem set. Earlier I had listed Steve Carell (Foxcatcher) for the fifth spot, but I am starting to think he may not have enough support to get the nomination. Timothy Spall (Mr. Turner), Jack O’Connell (Unbroken), Bradley Cooper (American Sniper) and Oscar Isaac (A Most Violent Year) all are in films that are just opening and may get enough notice to put them over the top, with Spall the most likely one. However, I am starting to think that final spot will go to surprise SAG and Golden Globe nominee Jake Gyllenhaal for his work in Nightcrawler. It’s not the type of role I would have guessed would do as well as it has, but it is getting him some of the best reviews of his career and it may carry him on to his second nomination, though the first in this category.

Best Actress

• Jennifer Aniston – Cake (WL D) [New] (TB D) [New] (TL D) [New]
• Marion Cotillard – Two Days, One Night (WL D) [New] (PP D) [New]
• Felicity Jones – Theory of Everything (PP O/N) (TB N) (TL N)
• Julianne Moore – Still Alice (WL N) (PP N) (TB N) (TL N)
• Rosamund Pike – Gone Girl (WL N) (PP C) (TB O) (TL C)
• Reese Witherspoon – Wild (WL S) (PP C) (TB O) (TL O/S)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: Before SAG, I would never in a million years have considered Jennifer Aniston a contender for a Best Actress nomination. However, with Golden Globe support, she has suddenly turned into a surprisingly strong competitor. Julianne Moore, Rosamund Pike and Reese Witherspoon seem the most assured of nominations while Marion Cotillard’s run of the critics would put her in a serious race for the fifth slot, but her film was snubbed by the Foreign Language Film committee and voters aren’t likely to put Two Days, One Night in the DVD player when they have so much else to look at. Felicity Jones is getting strong support for a Best Actress nomination, but her film seems weaker than many would suggest thus Amy Adams could sneak in for a nomination against most odds.
Peter J. Patrick: Marion Cotillard is the dark horse, but a spate of year-end critics’ awards make her chances a lot better than they were looking only a few weeks ago.
Tripp Burton: I’m going with the five SAG and Golden Globe nominees here, although if Into the Woods keeps steamrolling its way on we could see first-time nominee Emily Blunt sneak in over Aniston.
Thomas LaTourrette: Frontrunner Julianne Moore (Still Alice) will assuredly be joined by Reese Witherspoon (Wild) and Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything). I also think that Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl) will score a nomination, though she is in the weakest spot. For a long time I thought Amy Adams would easily pick up a nom and perhaps even a win for Big Eyes, but it now looks like she will be passed over for Jennifer Aniston (Cake). I’m not sure it would be deserved, but she has picked up the momentum of late. Marion Cotillard’s chances were probably diminished by her film not making the short list for Foreign Language Film. Neither Shailene Woodley (The Fault in Our Stars) nor Hilary Swank (The Homesman) look to be strong enough to swing a nomination. It is never easy to rule out Adams, as five previous nominations attest, but I think she will be edged out for the last spot by Aniston.

Best Supporting Actor

• Riz Ahmed – Nightcrawler (PP D) [New]
• Robert Duvall – The Judge (WL D) [New] (TB O/D) (TL D) [New]
• Ethan Hawke – Boyhood (WL D) [New] (PP N) (TB D) [New] (TL N)
• Edward Norton – Birdman (WL N) (PP S) (TB N) (TL S)
• Mark Ruffalo – Foxcatcher (WL C/N) (TB O) (TL O)
• J.K. Simmons – Whiplash (WL N) (PP N) (TB N) (TL C)
• Tom Wilkinson – Selma (PP N)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: Ethan Hawke, Edward Norton and J.K. Simmons are virtual locks. Hawke is the weakest of the three, but heavy support for his film should keep him in the conversation long enough to get nominated. The remaining two spots are tough to judge, at least that’s what Robert Duvall’s titular role may suggest. Duvall seemed like a fading contender when his film tanked with critics and audiences, but he’s kept on through the season and is the kind of respected actor who gets nominated for almost anything. Most conventional wisdom puts Mark Ruffalo in fourth, but his film hasn’t gotten the level of enthusiasm one would have expected, which might make his candidacy a bit tougher.
Peter J. Patrick: A nomination for Ahmed would keep this category from falling in lock-step with most people’s predictions.
Tripp Burton: Again, all of the precursors seem to be settling on these five and I’m not going to bet against them now. However, a surprise could be in the pipeline for this category.
Thomas LaTourrette: Long-time frontrunner J. K. Simmons (Whiplash) is still the one to beat. He should easily be joined by Edward Norton (Birdman), Ethan Hawke (Boyhood) and Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher). Once again I am changing my guess for the final spot. I was thinking it would go to Miyavi for Unbroken, but I think the generally mixed reviews for that film will also drop him out of contention. Tom Wilkinson (Selma) and Josh Brolin (Inherent Vice) are strong possibilities, but I think it may go to veteran actor Robert Duvall (The Judge). Golden Globe and SAG nominations appear to have cemented his position.

Best Supporting Actress

• Patricia Arquette – Boyhood (WL N) (PP S) (TB S) (TL C)
• Jessica Chastain – A Most Violent Year (WL D) [New] (PP C/N) (TB D) [New] (TL D) [New]
• Keira Knightley – The Imitation Game (WL S) (PP S) (TB S) (TL N)
• Emma Stone – Birdman (WL C) (PP O/N) (TB D) [New] (TL N)
• Meryl Streep – Into the Woods (WL O) (TB N) (TL N)
• Tilda Swinton – Snowpiercer (PP D) [New]

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: If you ask any Oscar prognosticator which category tends to be the most fluid up until Oscar nominations morning, Supporting Actress is one of the most frequently cited. Yet, shocking as it might seem, five performances seem to be holding all the tongues in Hollywood and thus, the category seems the most set of any, which is weird to say the least. Patricia Arquette, Keira Knightley and Emma Stone are probably safe. Jessica Chastain is close to being safe as well. However, Meryl Streep is Meryl Streep, so she could get nominated for wearing a moist towelette and reciting the Greek alphabet in Portuguese and still get nominated. Hell, she might even win for something like that.
Peter J. Patrick: Swinton’s momentum seems to be gaining traction through various critics’ awards. She should also benefit from the fact that her film was one of the first to go out on a screener.
Tripp Burton: These five actresses have received the lion’s share of attention so far, but any of them could be vulnerable to upset pretty easily. If someone makes it in, I imagine it will be someone riding the coattails of a lead nominee: Rene Russo, Kristen Stewart or Anna Kendrick.
Thomas LaTourrette: Frontrunner Patricia Arquette (Boyhood) will be nominated along with Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game), Emma Stone (Birdman) and Meryl Streep (Into the Woods). I had earlier guessed Laura Dern (Wild) would get the final spot, but she seems to be running out of steam. Carmen Ejogo (Selma), Anna Kendrick (Into the Woods) and even surprise SAG nominee Naomi Watts (St. Vincent) are unlikely to bump Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year) out of the fifth spot.

Best Original Screenplay

• Birdman (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Boyhood (WL S) (PP S) (TB S) (TL O)
• The Grand Budapest Hotel (WL O/D) (PP D) [New] (TB O) (TL D) [New]
• Mr. Turner (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)
• Selma (WL N) (TB D) [New] (TL D) [New]
• Whiplash (PP D) [New](TL N)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: Look first to Best Picture contenders, then to others. While that would typically be a good rule to live by, this year’s Best Picture race is heavy on original screenplays. Birdman and Boyhood are the only two certainties. The remaining three slots boil down to four or five films. The precursor circuit has put The Grand Budapest Hotel, Nightcrawler and Whiplash into serious contention. Meanwhile, Selma needs a nomination to become a Best Picture winner while the oft-nominated Mike Leigh is likely to fill at least one of the five slots. Tough calls all.
Peter J. Patrick: Whiplash is the only one I’m not sure about.
Tripp Burton: This is a stacked category this year, and when a lot of the leading contenders for other awards are eligible here, it is sewing up pretty fast. Outside of the core 4 contenders, the Academy’s love of Mike Leigh (and his history of surprise nominations in this category) should land him in the fifth slot. There are a lot of other options, though.
Thomas LaTourrette: Birdman and Boyhood will be battling it out for the Oscar here, like they will for best picture and director. Selma and Whiplash will likely join them as well. One can never rule out Mike Leigh, but I am not sure Mr. Turner has enough oomph right now to pull off the nomination. Foxcatcher also seems unlikely to pull off a nom. That leaves either the creepy Nightcrawler or the fey The Grand Budapest Hotel as the probable films for the final spot. At this point I think it will go to Wes Anderson for Hotel.

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Gone Girl (WL O) (PP O) (TB N) (TL O)
• The Imitation Game (WL N) (PP O/N) (TB N) (TL N)
• Inherent Vice (WL O)
• Theory of Everything (WL N) (PP O) (TB N) (TL N)
• Unbroken (WL O) (PP S) (TB O) (TL O)
• Wild (PP S/D) (TB O) (TL S)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: The adapted competition is anemic this year, so you can’t find many potential nominees who aren’t also in the Best Picture hunt. Gone Girl is one of the few adapted screenplays to win awards on from critics. The Imitation Game is a serious threat for several nominations. The Theory of Everything will rely entirely on the film’s popularity to get nominated. Unbroken‘s chances fade daily while Inherent Vice, in spite of a lack of support from critics, could be a spoiler. And don’t forget Wild, which could pull off a nomination as well.
Peter J. Patrick: Wild is the only one I’m not sure about.
Tripp Burton: Outside of these five films, I don’t know what else could possibly get in here. Into the Woods maybe.
Thomas LaTourrette: The Imitation Game, The Theory of Everything, Gone Girl and Wild likely will get nominations. Both Inherent Vice and Into the Woods have fans and detractors for their adaptations, and there may be enough detractors to keep either from getting that last spot. The same could be said of Unbroken, and several reviewers singled out the screenplay as a weak spot in the film. However, one should never rule out the support that the Coen Brothers have in the Academy, and they are two of the four credited writers of the film. I think that may be enough to get Unbroken into the fifth spot.

Best Original Score

• Gone Girl (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New](TL O) [New]
• The Grand Budapest Hotel (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New]
• The Imitation Game (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Interstellar (WL O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• The Judge (TB O) [New]
• Selma (WL O) [New]
• The Theory of Everything (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Unbroken (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: I will admit that I’m not at all certain on these contenders. I think it’s a pretty good bet that Gone Girl and at least one Alexandre Desplat score will be nominated. I’m leaning towards Unbroken, but Angelina Jolie’s film isn’t doing very well, whic could give Desplat’s slot over to either The Grand Budapest Hotel or The Imitation Game, possibly to both. Interstellar‘s overbearing score is terrific, but poorly used. Yet, Hans Zimmer is a well known composer, giving him a better chance than most to get nominated. An argument could also be made for Selma, especially if it goes over supremely well with voters.
Peter J. Patrick: With three potential nominees, Alexandre Desplat should finally win on either his 7th, 8th or 9th nomination for either The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game or Unbroken.
Tripp Burton: I have no idea how this category will shake out, and it always seems to contain some surprises. Here, though, I’m looking at some Academy favorite composers combined with some Academy friendly films.
Thomas LaTourrette: Gone Girl, The Imitation Game, Interstellar, The Theory of Everything and Unbroken appear the most likely to be nominated, though I did find Hans Zimmer’s score to Interstellar to be more distracting than helpful. Alexandre Desplat could pull off a rare triple nom with a spot for The Grand Budapest Hotel, but I think the Academy might think that two are enough with Unbroken and The Imitation Game. The score for How to Train Your Dragon 2 was rousing, but might be thought too similar to the original’s score to merit a nomination. An interesting choice could be The Homesman, but I am not sure enough people saw the film to carry it forward. It is a pity that Birdman’s score was ruled ineligible, as it would have been an intriguing addition to the mix.

Best Cinematography

• Birdman (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Gone Girl (TL O)
• The Grand Budapest Hotel (WL D) [New]
• Interstellar (WL O)(TL O)
• Mr. Turner (WL O) (PP D) [New] (TB O) (TL O)
• Selma (PP D) [New] (TB D) [New]
• The Theory of Everything (PP D) [New] (TB D) [New]
• Unbroken (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: Would it be an Oscar race without someone like Roger Deakins? Even though Unbroken got a drubbing from critics, his contribution is certain to get noticed. Emmanuel Lubezki’s work on Birdman has earned plenty of precursor praise and he’s a regular nominee, so, he should be safe. The painterly work of Dick Pope seems like a solid third-place contender for Mr. Turner. The remaining two slots could go to Interstellar, another case of a Best Visual Effects frontrunner making inroads into Best Cinematography. Also possible is The Grand Budapest Hotel, which owes at least some of its success to its vibrant look. Selma could also end up nominated as could Into the Woods, Big Eyes, The Imitation Game and Inherent Vice.
Peter J. Patrick: These seem the most likely at the moment.
Tripp Burton: Birdman and Mr. Turner are probably the two most talked about pieces of cinematography of the year, Birdman for its long takes and Mr. Turner for its images. That means that either could easily be dropped from this list. Selma and Theory of Everything should be able to take their momentum into this category, especially if either is going to seriously compete for the big prize. Roger Deakins has never won an Oscar, but he has no problem getting nominations, so he should be back again with Unbroken.
Thomas LaTourrette: This is the first category where I kept my predictions from earlier in the month. Birdman, Gone Girl, Interstellar, Mr. Turner and Unbroken all seem likely nominees, with Birdman still the strongest candidate. Both Interstellar and Mr. Turner will prove tough competition, as will perpetual bridesmaid Roger Deakins looking for his first win with Unbroken. Nightcrawler, Into the Woods, The Imitation Game, The Theory of Everything and Selma all will be vying to get a nomination, but I am not sure they will pull it off.

Best Visual Effects

• Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Godzilla (PP O) (TB O) (TL N)
• Guardians of the Galaxy (WL O) (PP N) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Interstellar (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Transformers: Age of Extinction (WL D) [New]

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: Interstellar, Guardians of the Galaxy, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes and The Hobbit seem hard to displace. Of the five other films on the shortlist, Transformers has the most effects, but Captain America‘s are more subtle, but still effective. Any one of the others could make the final slot.
Peter J. Patrick: The category should be re-named Best Computer-Generated Imagery.
Tripp Burton: All five of these films were critical and commercial hits, and they also all had really impressive effects. I’m really not sure what else could get in here.
Thomas LaTourrette: This is the second category where I kept my predictions from earlier. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, Godzilla, Guardians of the Galaxy, The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies and Interstellar still seem the most likely to be nominated. Either Maleficent or the latest Transformers film could knock one of them out for a spot, but any film will have a hard time beating Interstellar when it comes to the Oscar.

Best Foreign Language Film

• Force Majeure – Sweden (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Ida – Poland (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Leviathan – Russia (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New](TL O) [New]
• Tangerines – Estonia (TB O) [New]
• Timbuktu – Mauritania (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Wild Tales – Argentina (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: Force Majeure, Ida and Leviathan are the most critic-friendly choices. Timbuktu could appeal to voters who love an epic feel. Wild Tales has some love from critics and could be the fifth-place finisher, but any of the shortlisted films could get in with the highly unpredictable foreign language voters.
Peter J. Patrick: Looks like it will be an win for Ida.
Tripp Burton: This category always has a lot of fun surprises come nominations morning. The three biggest foreign films of the year, awards wise, are all shortlisted: Ida, Leviathan and Force Majeure. I’m guessing one of them won’t make it, and will guess Leviathan. As for the others, these are guesses more than anything.
Thomas LaTourrette: The Academy often throws a curve ball here when they announce the shortlist of films that are eligible. Both the Canadian film Mommy and the Belgian Two Days, One Night had seemed likely nominees, but neither made the list. This leaves the Polish Ida as the presumptive front runner. It likely will be joined by Leviathan, Wild Tales and Force Majeure. The last spot probably will go to either Timbuktu or Tangerines, with the timely Timbuktu as perhaps the more likely nominee.