The first major precursor telecast of the year is also the last major awards group to announce prior to the Oscar nominations (on Thursday morning). What will be most interesting about the Globes is how they shift the current narrative about the Oscars. While they often jump on bandwagons, they also strike out in different directions and begin monumental shifts in thinking. They aren’t the BAFTA’s in that regard, but they will likely make some changes to an otherwise surprise-starved awards season.

GOLDEN GLOBE AWARDS PREDICTIONS

Best Picture, Drama

Boyhood (Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Foxcatcher
The Imitation Game (Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
Selma (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
The Theory of Everything

Wesley Lovell: I’m going to go out on a limb and suggest that this is where the narrative shifts from Boyhood to either The Imitation Game or Selma. Never put it past Harvey to exert his will on people like Globes voters who will no doubt be treated to some lavish pre-parties and other tchotchkes that encourage them to vote his way. It could also be the first time any major group gets to see Selma before voting.
Peter J. Patrick: Boyhood should continue its roll to the Oscars, but if the Globes want to go with a more conventional film, The Imitation Game is most likely to prevail.
Tripp Burton: Boyhood has been on a roll awards wise, and is probably the safest pick here. However, The Imitation Game not only has Harvey Weinstein behind it, but also is the sort of foreign drama that the Globes go for (Atonement and Babel being two recent examples).
Thomas LaTourette: Boyhood seems the likely winner, though Selma could be a spoiler.

Best Picture, Comedy/Musical

Birdman (Wesley, Peter, Thomas, RU:Tripp)
The Grand Budapest Hotel (Tripp)
Into the Woods (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Pride
St. Vincent

Wesley Lovell: I almost put Into the Woods above Birdman, but the HFPA do like to go for major Oscar contenders when they can. However, they love musicals, so it will be a tight competition between Birdman, Into the Woods and possibly even The Grand Budapest Hotel playing spoiler.
Peter J. Patrick: Birdman received the most Globe nods this year, but musicals are always popular here so, although unlikely, Into the Woods could upset.
Tripp Burton: I know everyone seems to think Birdman has this in the bag, but the Globes don’t always like difficult or gritty comedies in this category. Grand Budapest feels important, is very funny, and has a European vibe that could gel well with the foreign voters. I’m going on a limb for it here.
Thomas LaTourette: I would expect Birdman to easily win here. If it doesn’t, then it is a toss-up between The Grand Budapest Hotel and Into the Woods, with the later released Woods being the more likely film.

Best Picture, Animated

Big Hero 6 (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
The Book of Life
The Boxtrolls (RU:Peter)
How to Train Your Dragon 2
The Lego Movie (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: The Lego Movie has been steamrolling through most of precursor season and these voters will surely put it forward as their own pick, but don’t count out any one of the others.
Peter J. Patrick: I expect The Lego Movie to prevail, but if the Globes want to throw a wild card I’d go with The Boxtrolls.
Tripp Burton: The HFPA has always gone with big Hollywood films here, and I wouldn’t expect them to break from that with such well-received, popular films here. The LEGO Movie is the animated film of the year, and should win easily, but the Globes have only once in seven years not given a Disney or Pixar movie this award. Big Hero 6 could be a very big upset here.
Thomas LaTourette: It is hard to see anything but The Lego Movie winning here, with Big Hero 6 the only one that might sneak in, due mostly to Disney’s prowess.

Best Director

Wes Anderson – The Grand Budapest Hotel (RU:Tripp)
Ava DuVernay – Selma
David Fincher – Gone Girl
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu – Birdman (Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Richard Linklater – Boyhood (Peter, Tripp, Thomas, RU:Wesley)

Wesley Lovell: HFPA voters like to look hip and while they would look hip picking either Inarritu or Linklater, giving their award to Ava DuVernay might give the group a chance to make a statement about recent events. If they go with the Selma helmer here, her chances at a Best Picture win may improve. I wouldn’t put it past this group to do something entirely off-the-wall.
Peter J. Patrick: Linklater should prevail for his once-in-a-lifetime 12-year odyssey, with Inarritu a possible spoiler.
Tripp Burton: Linklater’s achievement is so huge, filming schedule alone, that he seems an early pick to win every directing prize of the season. If Grand Budapest plays as well with the HFPA as I have a hunch it does, though, Wes Anderson could sneak in here.
Thomas LaTourette: This would seem Richard Linklater’s (Boyhood) to lose, though he will have some stiff competition from Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu.

Best Actor, Drama

Steve Carell – Foxcatcher (RU:Tripp)
Benedict Cumberbatch – The Imitation Game (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Jake Gyellenhaal – Nightcrawler (RU:Wesley)
David Oyelowo – Selma
Eddie Redmayne – The Theory of Everything (Thomas, RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: Benedict Cumberbatch may not be the international star that someone like Jake Gyllenhaal or Steve Carell might be, but he’s in almost everything and being a major Best Picture contender will surely help. Speaking of Gyllenhaal. His is the kind of hard-boiled performance that might just shock everyone and take home the big prize. The HFPA could feed their star-loving whims and not get too much flack about it afterwards.
Peter J. Patrick: Probably the Globes’ toughest race to call. I think Cumberbatch has the edge, but since they could honor him for TV’s Sherlock, they may opt for Redmayne here instead.
Tripp Burton: I could honestly see this category going in almost any direction, but my gut is telling me this is where Benedict Cumberbatch will pick up his first major citation of the year. The Globes do love their huge stars, though, and are also more accommodating to comedians moving into dramas, so look for Steve Carrell to put up a fight. It’s a tight race!
Thomas LaTourette: I could see the HFPA being in thrall to Eddie Redmayne’s performance in The Theory of Everything. If not him, then I could see them honoring Benedict Cumberbatch rather than David Oyelowo, though any could win.

Best Actress, Drama

Jennifer Aniston – Cake (RU:Tripp)
Felicity Jones – The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore – Still Alice (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Rosamund Pike – Gone Girl (RU:Wesley)
Reese Witherspoon – Wild (RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: It’s difficult to believe that the HFPA won’t go with Julianne Moore out of this slate of nominees. Yet, something nags at me suggesting that any one of the others could step forward and triumph. Yet, Still Alice seems like the kind of safe, middle-of-the-road picture that Globe voters can digest easily and then turn around and feel great about rewarding the Oscar-less Moore.
Peter J. Patrick: With nominations in both comedy and drama, Moore could win both to go along with her TV Globe for Game Change, but this is the stronger performance and the more likely category in which to honor her. If not, Witherspoon seems the most likely other candidate.
Tripp Burton: Julianne Moore is everyone’s presumptive front-runner for the season, and there is no real reason she should lose here. Unless star power gets Jennifer Aniston up onto the stage.
Thomas LaTourette: Julianne Moore has all the momentum right now and I would expect her to win. If not her, than I could see them going for the closest to Hollywood royalty with Reese Witherspoon.

Best Actor, Comedy/Musical

Ralph Fiennes – The Grand Budapest Hotel (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Michael Keaton – Birdman (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Bill Murray – St. Vincent
Joaquin Phoenix – Inherent Vice
Christoph Waltz – Big Eyes

Wesley Lovell: Being a major Oscar contender will certainly help. Of the five nominees here, his Best Actor nomination at the Oscars is most assured. His film is also a lead contender for the Best Comedy/Musical prize, so there’s little room to believe anyone else will win.
Peter J. Patrick: Keaton has this one in the bag. There won’t be an upset, but Fiennes would be a nice surprise.
Tripp Burton: I don’t see any way that Keaton loses this.
Thomas LaTourette: His is a serious role, but I can’t imagine Michael Keaton not winning. If they go for a comedic performance, it would have to be Ralph Fiennes, but that seems unlikely.

Best Actress, Comedy/Musical

Amy Adams – Big Eyes (Wesley, Thomas, RU:Tripp)
Emily Blunt – Into the Woods (Peter, Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Helen Mirren – The Hundred-Foot Journey
Julianne Moore – Maps to the Stars (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
Quvenzhane Wallis – Annie

Wesley Lovell: This is such a disappointing slate that all I could do was eliminate those who were very unlikely to win, namely Helen Mirren and Quevanzhane Wallis. From there, Emily Blunt’s film is a primary contender for their Best Comedy/Musical prize, so she has to be considered a threat, but Amy Adams is the star everyone loves and I can see the HFPA rewarding her just for being lovely. Moore could also pick up a double-win this year, which also wouldn’t surprise me with this group.
Peter J. Patrick: Weak category with Blunt out in front, but only slightly. Moore could take this one, too.
Tripp Burton: None of these performances are in the running for much of anything else this season, so this is a wide-open race that won’t have much of a factor on anything in the future. Emily Blunt is probably an easy front-runner.
Thomas LaTourette: Once again, I am choosing the most serious performance to win, with Amy Adams. If not her, than I would think it would be Emily Blunt.

Best Supporting Actor

Robert Duvall – The Judge (RU:Tripp)
Ethan Hawke – Boyhood
Edward Norton – Birdman (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Mark Ruffalo – Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons – Whiplash (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: The J.K. Simmons avalanche should continue unabated. If it gets derailed anywhere, this will be the place and someone like Edward Norton would be a safe, familiar face to go to in Simmons’ place.
Peter J. Patrick: I like Simmons for the win, with Norton a possible upset.
Tripp Burton: This is turning out to be the most boring category of the season, and betting against Simmons seems like a poor move. If anyone can do it, it is probably because the Globes are throwing a bone to a legend like Robert Duvall.
Thomas LaTourette: Oscar frontrunner J.K. Simmons should easily win here. Robert Duvall is the biggest name, but if anyone else were to win, I would think it would be Edward Norton.

Best Supporting Actress

Patricia Arquette – Boyhood (Wesley, Peter, Thomas, RU:Tripp)
Jessica Chastain – A Most Violent Year
Keira Knightley – The Imitation Game (RU:Peter)
Emma Stone – Birdman (Tripp, RU:Wesley)
Meryl Streep – Into the Woods (RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: I think this is a place where Arquette could stumble badly. However, considering the HFPA also votes in television categories and Arquette was nominated three times for her role in Medium (although she never won), I wouldn’t be surprised to see her win again. Keira Knightley and Emma Stone are also strong secondary contenders.
Peter J. Patrick: Arquette in a walk unless they really, really like The Imitation Game in which case Knightley will take it.
Tripp Burton: This is one of the categories that can be pretty wild at the Globes, with some surprising winners through the years and not a great correlation to Oscar success. Patricia Arquette has been a consistent presence this early in awards season, but the Globes love to give this award to gorgeous young actress over more grounded dramatic performances. Emma Stone is my pick for the upset here, although Keira Knightley or Jessica Chastain could certainly fill the bill too.
Thomas LaTourette: Once again the Oscar frontrunner, Patricia Arquette, seems likely to prevail. She will have stiff competition from the young up and comer Keira Knightley and old pro Meryl Streep, but I forecast an Arquette victory.

Best Screenplay

Birdman (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Boyhood (RU:Thomas)
Gone Girl
The Grand Budapest Hotel (RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
The Imitation Game (RU:Wesley)

Wesley Lovell: Multiple Best Picture contenders here. I’m leaning towards Birdman, but if The Imitation Game is going to win Best Drama, it needs something other than Best Actor to go with it. I could see them rewarding it here.
Peter J. Patrick: Birdman has the stronger screenplay, but The Grand Budapest Hotel is right behind.
Tripp Burton: The originality of Birdman should be plenty enough to move it into the front of this pack, just as it probably will for much of the season. If they want to honor Wes Anderson, though, this could be a great chance to give him his own trophy.
Thomas LaTourette: This seems one spot where Birdman will prevail over Boyhood, as it was quite the original screenplay.

Best Original Score

Birdman (Wesley, Peter, Tripp)
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Interstellar
The Theory of Everything (Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Considering the myriad odd-ball choices this group has made over the years, I’d suggest any of these could win. However, Birdman‘s ineligibility at the Oscars could push it to a win from a sometimes-contrary group. It could also go for the film that could win Alexandre Desplat his first Oscar.
Peter J. Patrick: This one’s a close call, but I think Birdman has a slightly better chance than the rest of the competition.
Tripp Burton: This is the wildest of all the Globe categories, and anything can happen here. The biggest surprise may be that these are all major releases, as they tend to choose some small films here that don’t appear anywhere else. The out-there score of Birdman, not eligible for the Oscars later this season, is probably going to win here, but Alexandre Desplat is having a great year and they may want to honor that with a win for The Imitation Game.
Thomas LaTourette: I am thinking The Theory of Everything might prevail over The Imitation Game. It would be fun to see it go to the drum-centric Birdman score, especially as that was deemed ineligible for the Oscar.

Best Song

Big Eyes – Big Eyes (RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
Glory – Selma (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Mercy Is – Noah (RU:Thomas)
Opportunity – Annie
Yellow Flicker Beat – The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1 (RU:Wesley)

Wesley Lovell: There are plenty of big stars among the singers who sing the songs nominated in this category. Giving it to any one of them could bolster the groups “cred” with younger audiences. However, when it comes down to it, Selma‘s track seems the most voter-friendly of these selections.
Peter J. Patrick: The inspirational “Glory” should be an easy winner here. The jaunty “Big Eyes” is the only other nominee I see possible.
Tripp Burton: This award usually comes down to which rock star do the voters want to see on stage accepting. My guess is John Legend and Common for Glory, but Lana del Ray, Patti Smith and Lorde could also be enticing votes.
Thomas LaTourette: Glory from Selma seems likely to win, but any of them could. I would think the second most likely would be Mercy Is from Noah, but this could go any direction.

Best Foreign Language Film

Force Majeure – Sweden (Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
Gett: The Trial of Viviane Ansalem – Israel
Ida – Poland/Denmark (Peter, Tripp, Thomas, RU:Wesley)
Leviathan – Russia (RU:Thomas)
Tangerines – Estonia

Wesley Lovell: While I think Ida‘s a fairly good bet for the Oscars, Force Majeure seems like the kind of film Globe voters would appreciate more.
Peter J. Patrick: I expect Ida to take this one in a walk, with Force Majeure its only real competition.
Tripp Burton: This category the past few years has leaned heavily on the most popular, or at least most recognizable, foreign language films of the year. This year, that is probably between Ida and Force Majeure, and I’ll give the slight advantage to the Polish film.
Thomas LaTourette: Ida from Poland seems the most likely to win. If not, then I would expect Russia’s Leviathan to win.