FOR AN OSCAR MORNING TRACKING SHEET, CLICK HERE. My predictions are in BOLD.

The Academy has made a lot of effort in recent years to make their awards more accessible as well as appeal to the many Oscar enthusiasts out here. This year, they are furthering that goal by doing something unprecedented. Starting at 5:30am Pacific (7:30am Central / 8:30am Eastern), they will be announcing nominations in all 24 Oscar categories. They’re breaking things up into two groups of categories. The second set going live eight minutes later for the morning shows. The surprising thing is, they are putting some atypical categories into the broadcast announcement (including Costume Design and Makeup).

The first set of nominations will be announced by Alfonso Cuaron and J.J. Abrams. The second set will be more traditional with Chris Pine co-announcing with Academy president Cheryl Boone Isaacs. How this will go and whether it will be replicated next year remain to be seen. Luckily, we can watch it all live on the internet streamed on the Oscar website.

This also poses quite a problem for me since I have long put together a short Oscar Morning prep article to help guide the uninitiated through the process (or even the initiated who want to think about the order of things). This time, I have all categories to discuss and will try to get them all done in due course, but this article will likely be a lot longer. Categories that aren’t going to impact Best Picture will be a bit briefer.

Since I have no idea whether the order in the press release will be followed or if they’ll jumble up the categories specified, I’ll just keep them in that order and hope that’s how things are announced.

As a note, in the Announcement section under each category, there’s an alphabetized, short list in the order the nominations would be announced so you can quickly look over the order in a small space.

Announcement 1

Alfonso Cuaron (last year’s winner for Gravity) and J.J. Abrams (why may I ask was he even selected?) are doing the honors to start, announcing in the following 11 categories: Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, Documentary Short Subject, Editing, Original Song, Production Design, Animated Short Film, Live-Action Short Film, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Visual Effects.

Best Animated Film

My Thoughts: This category has long been a battle between the established studios and the foreign imports. Three major studios have nearly always gotten a nomination: DreamWorks, Disney and Pixar. With no Pixar entry this year, Big Hero 6 will represent Disney and How to Train Your Dragon 2 will take the torch for DreamWorks. The Lego Movie is a sure thing for a nomination, which leaves two spots up for grabs. I give The Boxtrolls an edge for the fourth spot because Laika has done well with the Academy. However, not terribly long ago, two smaller, hand-drawn pieces sneaked into the line up and the same thing can happen here.

The Tale of the Princess Kaguya seems most likely, being from Studio Ghibli, but outside of Hayao Miyazaki’s films, Ghibli hasn’t done terribly well. Song of the Sea is from the same director who managed to get The Secret of Kells into this line up much to everyone’s surprise. I feel the final two spots are being fought over by three films and I’m not sure which ones will make it in.

The Announcement: You’ll be able to tell pretty early how many of the smaller films make the list. Big Hero 6 will start things off, then if we go directly to How to Train Your Dragon, then both Kaguya and Song of the Sea will be in the list. If Book of Life is second, I suspect Boxtrolls will be third followed by Dragon and Lego. If Lego ends up announced third, then Kaguya and Song of the Sea are your final two. If otherwise, you’ll have to wait until the fifth title is called to know which.

Big Hero 6, Book of Life, Boxtrolls, Cheatin’, Giovanni’s, Henry & Me, Hero of Color City, How to Train Your Dragon, Jack & Cuckoo-Clock Heart, Legends of Oz, Lego Movie, Miniscule, Mr. Peabody & Sherman, Penguins of Madagascar, Pirate Fairy, Planes: Fire & Rescue, Rio 2, Rocks in My Pockets, Song of the Sea, Tale of Princess Kaguya

Best Documentary Feature

My Thoughts: I’ve been vacillating all week over which films will make the final list, but the documentary branch has been confusing over time and so I only know that Citizenfour would be a bad film to bet against. The rest are all likely to change.

The Announcement: You could have your five selections taken up easily with the first half of the alphabet, but ultimately you just have to check them off on the list since there are only fifteen titles they can choose from.

Art and Craft, Case against 8, Citizen Koch, Citizenfour, Finding Vivian Maier, Internet’s Own Boy, Jodorowsky’s Dune, Keep On Keepin’ On, Kill Team, Last Days in Vietnam, Life Itself, Overnighters, Salt of the Earth, Tales of the Grim Sleeper, Virunga

Best Documentary Short Subject

My Thoughts: I have little idea which of these will make it through. I simply chose the five subject descriptions that seemed most interesting when you think about the Academy’s composition.

The Announcement: Just follow along. There are only eight titles on the list and five should continue to Oscar nominations. Of course, fewer nominees is always a possibility with this category.

Crisis Hotline, Joanna, Kehinde Wiley, Lion’s Mouth Opens, One Child, Our Curse, Reaper, White Earth

Best Editing

My Thoughts: It is absolutely imperative that you think of this category as going hand-in-hand with Oscar. While it does throw some oddball choices out there, most often, a nomination here puts a film in contention for Best Picture. Without a nod, it’s almost guaranteed to fail. Boyhood, in spite of not being at the top of anyone’s editing lists and Birdman, which consists largely of long, straight takes, are titles that benefit most from the Picture-Editing connection.

The Imitation Game will also benefit, but at least has the time-hopping elements to make it seem modestly fresh. Gone Girl may not be much of a Best Picture contender, but it has a lot of cross-cutting, narrative twisting and sudden reveals to make it a strong competitor. The fifth slot isn’t a insecure now that we’ve seen how it’s played with other groups. American Sniper is set in a war zone, which gives it the opportunity for plenty of tense cuts. I could see a number of films make it onto this list including Nightcrawler, Whiplash and Selma, but ultimately these five seem like the best predictions.

The Announcement: With four of my predictions sitting in the first four spots for announcement, I’ll know pretty quickly which ones are failures. The fifth is relatively close to the beginning of the list, so we could be over fairly quickly or things might drag out if Sniper, Birdman, Boyhood or Imitation Game fail to show up.

American Sniper, Birdman, Boyhood, Gone Girl, Grand Budapest, Imitation Game, Inherent Vice, Interstellar, Most Violent Year, Nightcrawler, Selma, Snowpiercer, Theory of Everything, Unbroken, Whiplash

Best Original Song

My Thoughts: In the 1980’s and 1990’s, the Academy loved songs that meant big names performed on their show. Somewhere in the mid-to-late 90’s, they began ignoring these choices, giving their bids to songs that few had heard of and fewer cared about. As such, it’s hard to look at the eligible songs this year and not wonder how much cred they could get for nominating songs sung by the likes of Lana del Rey, Lorde, Common, Glen Campbell, Adam Levine, but those choices don’t seem as likely considering recent history.

So, how do we make selections? Partly, you guess. A good educated guess, should probably consider films that either directly involve the creative process of songwriting (Begin Again) or feature songs “written” within the film (Boyhood). That accounts for two of my predictions. Glen Campbell is a country legend and “I’m Not Gonna Miss You” seems like just the kind of song the Academy will nominate. Hellfire would be unleashed if “Everything Is Awesome” wasn’t nominated. That leaves a fith spot, which I’m assigning to the bountiful ballad from Selma, which seemed well received at the Globes.

The Announcement: Play along and mark it off as it’s announced. I have no real advice to offer on how this will play out.

Apology Song, Big Eyes, Boxtrolls Song, Brave Souls, Everything Is Awesome, For The Dancing…, Glory, Grateful, I Love You Too Much, I’ll Get You What You Want, I’m Not Gonna Miss You, Immortals, It’s On Again, Last Goodbye, Let Me In, Lost Stars, Mercy Is, Million Ways To Die, Miracles, Not About Angels, Opportunity, Quattro Sabatino, Ryan’s Song, Something So Right, Split The Difference, Way Back When, We Will Not Go, We’re Doing A Sequel, Yellow Flicker Beat, You Got Me

Best Production Design

My Thoughts: The Grand Budapest Hotel has this one in the bag. Mr. Turner seems like the kind of film that traditionally nabs nods in both Production Design and Costume Design. The Imitation Game is being flogged by Harvey and that giant, working enigma decoder should help give it a boost. Guardians of the Galaxy, more so than Interstellar seems poised to secure the CGI-laden entry in the race and Into the Woods is all about the artificially constructed environments.

The Announcement: Anything appearing before The Grand Budapest Hotel should raise some red flags, namely for Guardians and <em.Turner. If Guardians isn’t on the list, I think Interstellar will be. From there, if Into the Woods is fourth, then the fifth will either be Mr. Turner or Selma as I see few other options.

Belle, Big Eyes, Birdman, Dawn/Planet/Apes, Gone Girl, Grand Budapest, Guardians/Galaxy, Hobbit, Imitation Game, Interstellar, Into the Woods, Lego Movie, Maleficent, Mr. Turner, Noah, Selma, Snowpiercer, Unbroken

Best Animated Short Film

My Thoughts: By description alone, I make my selections. For weal or woe, that is how it will pay out.

The Announcement: More play along fun.

Bigger Picture, Coda, Dam Keeper, Duet, Feast, Footprints, Me and My Moulton, Numberlys, Single Life, Symphony No. 42

Best Live Action Short Film

My Thoughts: The Phone Call is the only one I’d be surprised not to see nominated. The rest are all guesses.

The Announcement: Check ’em off and move along.

Aya, Baghdad Messi, Boogaloo and Graham, Butter Lamp, Carry On, My Father’s Truck, Parvaneh, Phone Call, SLR, Summer Vacation

Best Sound Mixing

My Thoughts: The Academy’s sound branch loves musicals and war films and action films. There are a lot of those this year and the Cinema Audio Society’s selections didn’t clarify much but that American Sniper, Interstellar and Guardians of the Galaxy are fairly certain to be on the list. Into the Woods is the only musical contender that could be included this year and I think it will take a slot, but it’s a shaky position. The fifth spot may go to The Imitation Game for its strong use of sound, especially in the enigma machine room.

The Announcement: Birdman was a surprise nominee at the Cinema Audio Society. It’s strength as a Best Picture contender may be bolstered by a nomination here. If it’s listed second, you can probably drop Imitation Game from the list. If we get to Guardians and follow up with Interstellar, we know where the odd-man was dropped. Into the Woodsshould be next. However, if Imitation Game is announced fourth, then there’s nothing left but Interstellar.

American Sniper, Birdman, Dawn/Planet/Apes, Edge of Tomorrow, Fury, Godzilla, Guardians/Galaxy, Hobbit, Imitation Game, Interstellar, Into the Woods, Lego Movie, Maleficent, Most Violent Year, Noah, Transformers, Unbroken

Best Sound Editing

My Thoughts: Take the nominees from Sound Mixing and drop those that aren’t as effects heavy and you usually have your Sound Editing nominees. You can drop Into the Woods almost immediately and Imitation Game will have a much tougher time getting in here. American Sniper and Interstellar are sure to carry over with Guardians of the Galaxy a pretty strong possibility for a third slot. The remaining two are mysteries that I’ve given to two franchise that have done well with the Academy, The Hobbit and Transformers. However, any other film could chime in.

The Announcement: American Sniper will lead things off again and could be immediately followed by Guardians. If anything else comes between, either Hobbit or Transformers will get dropped. Even Guardians could be overlooked, so keep an eye out. You might actually need those blank spaces on the tracking sheet considering how the Academy votes sometimes.

American Sniper, Dawn/Planet/Apes, Edge of Tomorrow, Fury, Godzilla, Guardians/Galaxy, Hobbit, Interstellar, Into the Storm, Lego Movie, Maleficent, Most Violent Year, Noah, Transformers, Unbroken, X-Men

Best Visual Effects

My Thoughts: if Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, Guardians of the Galaxy, Interstellar or The Hobbit were to miss out on this nomination, many would be shocked. I originally gave the fifth slot to Transformers just because the franchise has done well in this category, but Godzilla and Maleficent were strong possibilities. Then I gave some thought to X-Men.

X-Men: Days of Future Past may have gotten a lot of attention for its flying stadium scene, but the effect that now sticks in my mind as being a good possibility to snag the film a (and the franchise its first) nomination. The more I think about it, the more I think the originality of the “Time in a Bottle” sequence alone could get it the nomination.

I’d be surprised if Captain America: The Winter Soldier or Night at the Museum were to get nominated only because neither seems exceptionally dominant with its effects and especially in the case of Night at the Museum, neither’s predecessors were nominated.

The Announcement: This is the last of the pre-broadcast categories to be revealed. There aren’t many options (only ten) here, so it should be easy to gauge quickly what’s in and what’s out.

Captain America, Dawn/Planet/Apes, Godzilla, Guardians/Galaxy, Hobbit, Interstellar, Maleficent, Night at the Museum, Transformers, X-Men

---

Announcement 2

Academy President Cheryl Boone Isaacs will step out at 8:38am ET (5:30am PT, 7:30am CT) to present the final thirteen nominations along with actor Chris Pine, supporting star of this year’s Into the Woods. They will present 13 categories: Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Cinematography, Costume Design, Director, Foreign Language Film, Makeup & Hairstyling, Original Score, Adapted Screenplay, Original Screenplay and Picture. Looking over this list, I’m beginning to think the order isn’t accurate for what they’ll do as it seems alphabetical (with the two Writing awards classified under “W” and the acting awards under “A”). The same also appears to be true for the above categories, so you may have to do some jumping around.

Best Actor

My Thoughts: There are four names most of us expect to hear called out Thursday morning: Benedict Cumberbatch, Jake Gyllenhaal, Michael Keaton and Eddie Redmayne. That fifth spot is something of a mystery. It could be any one of five actors: Steve Carell, Bradley Coooper, Ralphe Fiennes, David Oyelowo or Timothy Spall. Mr. Turner couldn’t even make inroads on its home turf, so Spall is probably out. Foxcatcher hasn’t caught on like everyone thought it was, so he’s probably out, unless he gets bumped to support like he was at BAFTA. Oyelowo will either be a victim of Selma slide to ignominy or he’ll be a sign of its phoenix-like rise from the ashes.

Cooper seems like he might benefit from the late surge of American Sniper. Most critics talk about his performance as the anchor and with two prior nominations from the Academy, his chances look much better. Yet, I can’t help but pick Ralph Fiennes. The Grand Budapest Hotel has had the kind of year indies dream about. We’ve all been saying that no one expected it to do much when it first opened, but it has far exceeded those expectations and is heading towards a lead in the nominations count. Ralph Fiennes is a past nominee as well, and he’s the central performance of the film, giving him a leg up. Ultimately, I could see Cooper, Fiennes or even Oyelowo making the final cut and it’s even possible more than one of them could make it in over Gyellenhaal, but that would be something of a shock.

The Announcement: Cumberbatch will be the first of the four central contenders to get announced. If he isn’t, the two names that could come first are Carell and Cooper, which would throw things off, making the third name announced Gyllenhaal and not Fiennes as I personally expect. Once the first three names are given, the remainder should be Keaton and Redmayne.

Carell, Coltrane, Cooper, Cumberbatch, Fiennes, Gleeson, Gyllenhaal, Hardy, Isaac, Keaton, O’Connell, Oyelowo, Phoenix, Redmayne, Spall

Best Actress

My Thoughts: There are essentially eight names in the race for Best Actress. One of them has become something of an also-ran at this point. Most believe that Felicity Jones, Julianne Moore, Rosamund Pike and Reese Witherspoon will form the core of the nomination list. That leaves Amy Adams, Jennifer Aniston, Marion Cotillard and Hilary Swank to duke it out for the remaining slot.

Swank is the also-ran at this point, having watched her film disappear from all other consideration and the chatter about her performance die within a few short weeks of the film’s release. Cotillard made a strong run through the precursors, but foreign actresses aren’t an easy sell for Academy members, especially when they have bigger American names to choose from. Jennifer Aniston burst onto the scene in white hot fashion when her tiny film made a blip of a qualifying run to keep it out of critics’ hands while making sure SAG voters and the HFPA got screeners, securing her a spot on their lists. Picking up one of the spots at the Broadcast Critics’ awards nominations added icing to that cake.

Yet, the film has been pulling plenty of negative reviews from those who’ve seen it and if Academy voters, who can sometimes be finicky about nominating bad movies, actually get to see it, they may just turn their nose up on it and forget the film. Aniston, like Steve Carell, suffers from being viewed as a television personality even though both have strong big screen resumes. That leaves Adams. Last year, American Hustle was chugging along towards what some thought would be a play at Best Picture, but Adams was viewed as the weak link and missed out on several prominent nominations. Yet, the Academy still gave her a mention, lending credence to the belief that they really love her, as an actor and as a person. Her sweet, genteel persona may help her gett just enough votes to pull out the fifth slot. After winning the Globe, it’s clear there’s plenty of love for her to go around.

The Announcement: The first name off the list will tell us who the fifth slot belongs to. Adams, Aniston or Cotillard. If more than one of these ladies get in, the remaining three slots may be a nail biter. Of course, if the third name is then Moore, we know who got left off right away. This is one of those suspenseful categories where the suspense is negated thankfully quickly.

Adams, Aniston, Cotillard, Jones, Moore, Pike, Swank, Witherspoon

Best Supporting Actor

My Thoughts: Here we come to yet another category where four names are so frequently mentioned and nominated that any one of them losing out on a nod would shock everyone. J.K. Simmons, Edward Norton, Mark Ruffalo and Ethan Hawke are those four names. The fifth slot seems to boil down to four names, neither of which have enough of a trajectory to guarantee they’ll get nominated.

Steve Carell was surprisingly nominated in support at BAFTA, but don’t count on the Academy to follow suit. They tend to stick to Oscar campaign placements and he will probably miss out on a nomination as a result. Josh Brolin has earned strong notices for Inherent Vice and has even gotten a few precursor nominations. However, his film isn’t performing as well as expected, which could hurt his chances. However, the film broke late and could get enough niche support to build into a Brolin nod.

Robert Duvall may be the safest prediction one could make. His film as trashed by critics and has been dropped from most conversations, but Duvall is a well respected actor with plenty of prior nominations to suggest he’s got the capability of getting nominated for a bad movie. I waffled awhile and Duvall would still be on my list if it weren’t for the late-game surge by Nightcrawler, a film which has had strong support from critics and precursors when no one thought it would. Riz Ahmed may not be your classic Best Supporting Actor nominee, but I’ve got a slight hunch he could benefit from the film’s sudden boost.

The Announcement: Like Bet Actress, we’ll know almost immediately where the fifth slot is going. Ahmed, Brolin, Carell and Duvall precede all of the seemingly-locked four actors. If more than one of these get nominated, it’s possible that Hawke or Ruffalo get left off the list, but that would be surprising.

Ahmed, Baldwin, Brolin, Carell, Duvall, Hawke, Miyavi, Norton, Ruffalo, Simmons, Wilkinson

Best Supporting Actress

My Thoughts: Unlike the other three acting categories, Best Supporting Actress has only three certainties: Patricia Arquette, Emma Stone and Keira Knightley. From there, the waters become murkier, though there are only five strong candidate for those remaining two slots.

Laura Dern is a past nominee and has plenty of ties to the Oscar community since her mother Diane Ladd is also a past nominee. Her father got a nomination after both of them did, but he still counts as giving her a boost. Yet, Wild has only been trending in three categories and only one of those is a lock for a nomination. With the screenplay looking like it will go down to defeat, Dern’s lack of recent support significantly hurt her chances.

Tilda Swinton collected a bountiful number of precursor wins for her work in Snowpiercer and she has an Oscar already, coming from behind to clinch the win. She’s well respected, but her film hasn’t gotten the kind of push it needs to score any nominations, meaning Swinton may get left behind. Jessica Chastain is a past nominee and her performance in A Most Violent Year has earned terrific notices. She’s even picked up several precursor nominations. The problem is that it seems A Most Violent Year is struggling, much like J.C. Chandor’s prior effort, All Is Lost. The extremely late release may have hurt its chances to build up steam, though Chastain could turn her popularity into a bonus and mint the film’s only nomination.

Like Riz Ahmed, Rene Russo has been slowly building steam thanks to the boost her film Nightcrawler has gotten. While she hasn’t placed in many precursors, she picked up one that benefits her a great deal. She was slated at BAFTA over the likes of Meryl Streep and Jessica Chastain. That give her a high profile even if the announcement wasn’t made in time to effect Oscar voting. Still, the film’s support may be enough to get her some attention after a long, respectable career that has been short on recognition. That’s she’s gotten stellar notices helps.

I put Russo into the fifth slot, leaving the fourth open for the proclaimed goddess Meryl Streep. Streep’s makeup-heavy performance in Into the Woods would be quickly forgotten if she were any other actress. Yet, here’s Meryl singing and emoting like nobody’s business and although many don’t consider this close to her best performance (or even the best performance in the film), I consider her a mite vulnerable. Yet, Streep could get nominated for playing a traffic guard, so she’s probably still in even though it’s possible Chastain could bump her or Russo out of the list.

The Announcement: The suspense in this category won’t be eliminated early, but it may be alleviated. After Arquette’s name is announced, the second name will tell us a great deal. If it’s Chastain, then we’ll proceed to Knightley next. The fourth name will then either be Stone (and the fifth Streep) or the fourth will be Russo and the fifth Stone (with Streep entirely missed). If we go immediately from Arquette to Knightley, then both Russo and Streep are your remaining nominees.

Arquette, Chastain, Dern, Ejogo, Knightley, Miller, Russo, Stone, Streep, Swinton, Watts

Best Cinematography

My Thoughts: The Academy loves to recognize the outdoors, but there’s not a lot of that around this year, meaning they have to go well lit interiors for their selections. The American Society of Cinematographers was a great help, but is not the perfect barometer.

The big omission by the ASC this year was Interstellar, a film most thought was fairly secure for a nomination. Its absence allowed us to see an opening for five non-CGI-heavy titles in a race that’s become too intricately tied to the Visual Effects award in recent years. Birdman, Mr. Turner and Unbroken seem like safe bets for nominations. The Grand Budapest Hotel grows stronger as a potential nominee by the minute. That leaves one spot for the film that shocked everyone when it showed up on the ASC list: The Imitation Game.

Journeyman work like Imitation Game is hardly ever awarded, especially by the persnickety ASC, so its inclusion here indicates two things. The title is much stronger in the race for a Best Cinematography nomination and that the film has enough support to go much further at the Oscars than might otherwise have been expected for such a title.

The Announcement: It would be surprising not to have Birdman as the first title announced, but American Sniper and Big Eyes could both surprise. Leaving those two off the list, Birdman should be followed immediately by Grand Budapest The third announcement may be where we know if Imitation Game makes the cut or if Interstellar sneaks back into the race. Once that third position is full, we have little room left but to wait for the final two to be taken up by Mr. Turner and Unbroken.

American Sniper, Big Eyes, Birdman, Fury, Grand Budapest, Hobbit, Imitation Game, Inherent Vice, Interstellar, Into the Woods, Mr. Turner, Selma, Unbroken

Best Costume Design

My Thoughts: I only see two titles as being locked for nominations. Mr. Turner is the only costume darma on the list of contenders this year, which should give it a hefty boost; and Into the Woods has the delightful fantasy costumes the Academy’s voters are sure to love.

The remaining three selections are toss-ups. My personal guesses are that The Grand Budapest Hotel and Maleficent will take two spots and the third is so wide open taht just about anything could make it through. I’m leaning towards Tim Burton’s Big Eyes only because he does love the colorful and meaningful frocks. The Imitation Game, Selma and The Theory of Everything are also strong possibilities.

The Announcement: The first title off the list will tell us some, but probably not a lot. If it’s The Grand Budapest Hotel, then things are going to be more interesting a bit later. Big Eyes could be first, which would severely limit the down-list options. After The Grand Budapest Hotel, we have a couple of titles that could show up before Into the Woods, but if that film is second, there are a lot of titles left to fill things out. However, The Imitation Game may check into the second spot pushing Into the Woods into third and leaving room for Maleficent to get dropped.

Belle, Big Eyes, Grand Budapest, Guardians/Galaxy, Hobbit, Imitation Game, Inherent Vice, Into the Woods, Maleficent, Mr. Turner, Noah, Selma, Theory of Everything, Unbroken

Best Director

My Thoughts: There were two major events that changed my impression of this category in the last week. The first was BAFTA going for Damien Chazelle for Best Director in spite of no indications that it was a possibility. I took some time, thought about it (and the Benh Zeitlin connection two years ago) and penciled him into the list. That list was already fairly full, with Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Richard Linklater and Wes Anderon virtually guaranteed spots.

Then the Directors Guild of America threw us a curveball and put a director that hadn’t really been in the conversation for a Best Director nomination into consideration. Clint Eastwood’s film has been building buzz, but the tight Best Director race seemed to be out of reach for him, yet here he was. Being a veteran director may have helped, though. I waffled between him and Chazelle for awhile and ultimately decided that the Academy’s more likely to nominate legend Eastwood over Chazelle than they were to pick Zeitlin over the likes of non-legends Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow two years ago.

So what of the fourth spot. I firmly believe that Harvey Weinstein’s expert, if annoying, campaign capabilities will ultimately yield a nomination for Morten Tyldum. Many have complained about his generic biopic work being in contention, but the Academy has never let that stand in their way, especially on a Best Picture contender. So, I put him in fourth and then make Chazelle and Eastwood duke it out for fifth.

But what of Ava DuVernay. Her Selma was thought to be a major player this year, but after Paramount botched its handling of the film’s campaign, it’s gone from surefire contender to also-ran. That status might not keep it out of the Best Picture race, but with only five slots available and no DGA to bolster her candidacy, DuVernay may have to wait to become the first woman of color to earn a Best Director nomination. Of course, they could still nominate her over Eastwood or Chazelle, but I don’t see that as a very strong possibility anymore.

The Announcement: The Academy has always announced this category alphabetically by film title, not by director’s name, so that’s how they are listed below. With the new layout, they could change that methodology, but I doubt they will. You’ll know immediately whether Eastwood’s the fifth-slot nominee or not. Either American Sniper will be first or Birdman will. After Birdman, the next two titles should be Boyhood and The Grand Budapest Hotel. There’s a weak possibility that David Fincher’s Gone Girl will sneak in between them, but I wouldn’t count on it. After Grand Budapest, we will have either one or two slots to fill. If two, The Imitation Game is almost assuredly fourth on the list. If not, it’s still likely to be fifth, but fifth could also be Selma, The Theory of Everything or, most likely, Whiplash.

American Sniper, Birdman, Boyhood, Foxcatcher, Gone Girl, Grand Budapest, Imitation Game, Inherent Vice, Most Violent Year, Mr. Turner, Selma, Theory of Everything, Unbroken, Whiplash

Best Foreign Language Film

My Thoughts: I think three films are secure for nominations, Force Majeure, Ida and Leviathan. After that, it’s pure guess work based on reputation and subject matter. I have Timbuktu and Wild Tales down, but wouldn’t be surprised for other options.

The Announcement: There are only nine titles that could be nominated. The first one will tell us so much. If it isn’t Force Majeure, then I’m guessing it’s Accused as Corn Island just seems so odd a choice. After Force Majeure is announced, the next two will be the other near-guarantees, Ida and Leviathan. That leaves four films to fill either one or two slots. If one, then I’m guessing Timbuktu, but it could be any of them. If two, then Timbuktu and one other film, or not Timbuktu at all. Just play along at home and you’ll see the proper trajectory.

Accused, Corn Island, Force Majeure, Ida, Leviathan, Liberator, Tangerines, Timbuktu, Wild Tales

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

My Thoughts: For me, dropping Amazing Spider-Man 2 and Noah from the list seem like no brainers. Of the remaining five films, any of them could be nominated. All have had precursor nominations from the likes of the Make Up & Hair Stylists Guild to BAFTA. My hunch is that Guardians of the Galaxy is pretty secure a nominee. I think the second spot is almost ceratin to be The Grand Budapest Hotel. Tilda Swinton’s makeup alone would be enough to trump any of these other nominees, but thre are plenty of other effects this branch should love to look at.

Of the remaining three, Foxcatcher may be better than The Theory of Everything, but neither are really examples of great makeup effects, which could give an in to Maleficent. However, I suspect that almost assured Best Picture nominee The Theory of Everything will be the third selection.

The Announcement: First title out of the gate will most likely determine the third slot. Foxcatcher would be the top call, but if it doesn’t go and Grand Budapest is first, we have to wait until the third title is announced to know what else to expect, namely whether MaleficentThe Theory of Everything follows Guardians of the Galaxy.

Amazing Spider-Man, Foxcatcher, Grand Budapest, Guardians/Galaxy, Maleficent, Noah, Theory of Everything

Best Original Score

My Thoughts: The Academy has eclectic taste in music and without Birdman being eligible, there’s plenty of room to spread out across potential contenders. I think there are three films that we should expect to see here. Gone Girl would mark Atticus Ross and Trent Reznor’s second mention from the Academy, which doesn’t seem as odd as it might have once upon a time. They didn’t get nominated for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, but this work is much more subtle than that film and is more in tune with their prior Oscar win for The Social Network. The Imitation Game has a push from Harvey to get un-Oscared Alexandre Desplat a nomination. The third is Golden Globe winner The Theory of Everything, which many have cited as one of the few great things about the film (at least among those who are dismissive of the film itself).

So what of the other two nominees. I’m not sure, but I think Alexandre Desplat may be getting a rare double nomination when he make the cut for The Grand Budapest Hotel. From there, Interstellar‘s score is fantastic when listened to separately from the film. Within the film, it’s assaulting, which may not help the film get nominated. Still, I think it will probably make it through. Largely because I can’t think of what else could do it

The Announcement: There are too many possible contenders to get an easy read on how the announcement order will play out, so take a break during this one to just check things off and not over think the selections.

Big Eyes, Big Hero 6, Boxtrolls, Dawn/Planet/Apes, Fury, Gone Girl, Grand Budapest, Hobbit, Homesman, How to Train Your Dragon, Imitation Game, Inherent Vice, Interstellar, Lego Movie, Most Violent Year, Mr. Turner, Nightcrawler, Noah, Selma, Snowpiercer, Song of the Sea, Tale of Princess Kaguya, Theory of Everything, Unbroken, Under the Skin, Visitors

Best Adapted Screenplay

My Thoughts: Although everyone else considered it original, Whiplash has been shunted to the Adapted Screenplay category by the Academy. Their reasoning was that the film existed in a short scene used to flog for money to get the full film made. Apparently that was enough for the Academy even though it wasn’t a full-fledged short film at the time. With Whiplash in the race, things change dramatic. Before, it was becoming tough to fill out the five slots without running out of potential options. Now, it seems to have become suddenly competitive.

Gone Girl has been the only true adapted screenplay to win a lot of precursor awards this year. That gives it an obvious advantage. Also certain to be nominated are The Imitation Game, The Theory of Everything and now Whiplash. That gives us one spot to fill and although I might have said Inherent Vice was certain get it or Wild to upset, the last-minute surge of American Sniper almost guarantees its inclusion.

The Announcement: As with all American Sniper nominations, we’ll know right off the bat where things are going. If Gone Girl is first, the only question is whether Inherent Vice will be third or Wild will be fifth. Any other arrangement would be completely shocking.

American Sniper, Big Eyes, Gone Girl, Imitation Game, Inherent Vice, Into the Woods, Snowpiercer, Theory of Everything, Unbroken, Whiplash, Wild

Best Original Screenplay

My Thoughts: With Whiplash out of the way, the potential selections for Best Original Screenplay become infinitely easier to predict. Birdman, Boyhood and The Grand Budapest Hotel are virtual locks. The remaining two slots are going to be fought over by five films with two of them being more obvious choices than the others.

First, let’s eliminate Foxcatcher. Of the other four potential nominees for the two open slots, it’s one of two that don’t have much of a shot at a Best Picture nomination. The other is A Most Violent Year. J.C. Chandor’s third film just hasn’t generated enough buzz to make it in, which means I’d rank Foxcatcher slightly above it in terms of potential, but neither seems like a good bet.

Selma is the third title I’d eliminate. The film’s downward trajectory will surely hurt its chances with the Academy and considering most highlight the film’s script as its weakest element, then the elimination becomes easier. Of course, a surge of support for the film could give it an opportunity to pick up a nod here and if it does get nominated in this category, a Best Picture nod is likely to follow.

For the fourth slot, I favor Nightcrawler. As I mentioned several times above the film has come on like gangbusters in the waning days of the Oscar campaign. Its regular appearance on screenwriting lists at the precursors should make it a safe bet for that fourth position. That leaves the fifth slot to frequent nominee Mike Leigh. Whenever he’s made a film that’s been even remotely a Best Picture contender, he gets a nomination in Best Original Screenplay, even if it’s the only one his film gets. He’s one of those names, like Woody Allen, who could almost write a two word sentence on a napkin and get a nomination as a result.

The Announcement: This is one of the few categories where the early titles announced won’t tell us a lot. Birdman and Boyhood will be a sure one-two punch to get things started. Foxcatcher could be a shocking third, but Grand Budapest is more likely be announced third. After that, either A Most Violent Year comes in fourth or Mr. Turner does and that leaves only Nightcrawler for fifth. If Mike Leigh’s script isn’t selected and Nightcrawler ends up fourth, then the only real option to go fifth is Selma.

Birdman, Boyhood, Foxcatcher, Grand Budapest, Interstellar, Most Violent Year, Mr. Turner, Nightcrawler, Selma

Best Picture

My Thoughts: Now we come to the big award. While I’ve done a general overview of all of the previous categories, I like to go through the potential Best Picture nominees alphabetically in this final post to discuss the merits and deficiencies of each and highlight what good and bad signs might have come before to confirm its nomination.

There can be anywhere from five to ten nominees each year. Since they instituted this accordion arrangement, there have only been nine-nominee years. This year could see that number pushed to ten or, the wide spread of ballots could result in a significantly lower number. Ultimately, I think this variant size should be done away with and if enough films get left off, we may go back to the arrangement we had the first two years of the expansion.

The Announcement: They are supposed to announce them in random order, at least they did two years ago. They could also go back to alphabetical. There’s no way to know until they start announcing.

American Sniper – With a string of Oscar no-shows, many though Eastwood might have another on his hand. However, reviews have been good and the film has blossomed into the new year to become one of the top contenders. If the film does well in most categories, it should be a shoo-in for a nomination here. If Eastwood is nominated for director, it would be shocking to see it miss the list.

Birdman – This is one of five films that seem like locks. There’s little working against it. If director Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu can get Babel nominated, there’s no reason this one can’t get in. A depressed nomination count and near misses in several categories might spell trouble for the film, but I highly doubt that will occur. The film is likely to be in the upper reaches of the nominations count this year, competing with The Grand Budapest Hotel for the top spot.

Boyhood – After its premiere on the festival circuit, some said that Boyhood could go all the way. Yet, its pedigree and trajectory didn’t quite make it seem like a capable Oscar winner. Yet, award after award has fallen into its lap, giving it a boost of immeasurable proportion. And if the notoriously fame-friendly HFPA can give a small film like Boyhood its Best Picture prize, it not only is a lock for a nomination, but it could also go all the way.

Foxcatcher – Being postponed for any reason doesn’t give anyone confidence in your film. Even after it premiere and earned solid notices from critics, it couldn’t build enough momentum to allow it to get into the conversation for a nomination. Bennett Miller has done very well with the Academy on prior occasions, but it just seems like it’s out of luck this time around. If the film gets any acting nominations other than Mark Ruffalo and then appears in some creative categories and the Original Screenplay list, it could be a surprise inclusion on this year’s Best Picture roster.

Gone Girl – Once a solid contender for a nomination and possibly even a win, the film has done marvelously at the box office, but hasn’t fared well in the precursors. While it’s gotten a respectable run with Rosamund Pike and the Screenplay winning on several occasions, its Best Picture prospects have been muted. I rank this on the low end of potential nominees and it could very well make the list, but I don’t consider it close to a lock. If David Fincher is nominated or the film does incredibly well in the tech categories, its spot in the Best Picture list might be more secure.

The Grand Budapest Hotel – When Moonrise Kingdom, Wes Anderson’s acclaimed previous film couldn’t get into the Best Picture race, no one expected the likes of Grand Budapest Hotel to do so. Yet, after a rousing run through the precursors and attention from all of the major guilds, The Grand Budapest Hotel has gone from maybe to guarantee. It’s quirky sure, but it could even win Best Picture with enough support. I doubt any other film will earn more nominations than this one as it’s sure to show up in several below-the-line categories and several above-the-line as well.

Guardians of the Galaxy – I don’t really see a Best Picture nomination in the film’s future, but stranger things have occurred. Here you have one of the top box office hits of the year with tons of love from the guilds. It didn’t make the PGA list, which certainly hurts its chances, but with enough passion from the creative and tech communities within the Academy, it could be a dark horse contender for a nomination.

The Imitation Game – This is one of the five aforementioned surefire Best Picture nominee. Along with Birdman, Boyhood and The Grand Budapest Hotel above, I see little reason this film won’t end up on the final list, especially with Awards guru Harvey Weinstein in full throttle promotion mode, a mode he’s failed to actively engage the last two years.

Inherent Vice – This film doesn’t have much of a chance, but if a large enough subject of the Academy membership can love Paul Thomas Anderson’s latest film, it might very well end up as one of the biggest shocks of the year. If it doesn’t show up in either Supporting Actor or Adapted Screenplay, you can very easily count it out.

Interstellar – There was a time when everything Christopher Nolan did became an instant Best Picture contender. After the Academy shifted to ten nominations in response to the failure of his highly popular and critically acclaimed The Dark Knight failed to get a predicted Best Picture nomination, it’s de rigeur to place him on the list. The problem is that his work is uneven and while critics generally liked this film, it didn’t have the boost they gave his preceding Inception. Unless it shows up in Original Screenplay, I wouldn’t bet on a nomination for the film.

Into the Woods – Sure it’s the best Stephen Sondheim film adaptation to date, but that isn’t saying a lot. Critics were generally pleased with it, and audiences are still going out to see it, but somewhere along the line, the film stopped being a major Best Picture contender and slowly slipped below a number of indie films to become an also-ran. If Meryl Streep isn’t nominated, the film’s chances will dim almost completely. If it makes a hefty showing in categories like Best Cinematography, it might still have a shot. However, there are ten films will better chances above it.

A Most Violent Year – J.C. Chandor surprised everyone with a nomination for his screenplay for Margin Call. His second film, All Is Lost was discussed frequently as a Best Picture and Best Actor contender, but ultimately nabbed only a Sound Editing nomination. A Most Violent Year, on paper, looked like the perfect Oscar vehicle. Two hot up-and-coming (or already arrived in the case of Jessica Chastain) talents in a gritty New York crime drama sounds like something the Academy might have gone head-over-heels for a decade ago. Yet, it’s New Year’s Eve launch, in an accelerated Oscar season, and a general lack of major support from its studio, have turned the film from a solid contender into an also-ran. If Jessica Chastain can’t even crack supporting actress, this film is done for. A screenwriting nomination and some creative mentions might bolster the film’s position, but I doubt it can eclipse Into the Woods for a low-level berth in the slate.

Nightcrawler – I’ve talked ad nauseum about the near-perfect meteoric rise of Nightcrawler through awards season. It’s been an ever-present figure in various races, it’s secured several awards and has even appeared on nearly every single guild slate imaginable. With so much going for it, I’m even talking about two potential surprise acting nominations to go alongside Jake Gyllenhaal. The film could be too dark with the Academy and if neither Riz Ahmed or Rene Russo get nominated and it fails to show up in any creative categories, that might spell trouble.

Selma – A botched Oscar campaign, an aggressive anti-history campaign and little precursor love for Ava DuVernay’s ode to Martin Luther King Jr. have ultimately resulted in a diminished star for a film that should have been a major player at the Oscars. Screeners didn’t go out to anyone but the Academy and soon to Spirit Awards voters, which hurts more than it helps. With the very narrow window between end-of-year and Oscars, it’s imperative that you get your film seen early and often by those that matter. Without guild support, your chances with the Academy aren’t great. Perpetual remarks about how poorly your movie is doing with the precursors cannot possibly help. The film’s Best Picture chances have diminished, but I believe it will still have enough support to land a nomination, though it may be tight.

The Theory of Everything – Here we come to the fifth film that I suspect is assured a nomination above all others. Even though critics weren’t universally enamored with the film and audiences didn’t seem to care about it, the film has managed to hold on and even increase support through Oscar season. With BAFTA easily going for the film (even in spite of the famed Brit Bias), there’s little possibility the film doesn’t make this Best Picture slate. If either Felicity Jones or Eddie Redmayne remarkably get left off their respective category lists, the film’s chances might not be as solid as we once perceived.

Unbroken – Before it was seen, everything on paper for Angelina Jolie’s second film seemed like the perfect film for Oscar voters. An Olympic runner who becomes a defiant prisoner of war during World War II from writers that included the Coen Brothers sounds like the perfect pitch for the Academy. Yet, the film was seen and critics mostly trashed the film. It has consistently underperformed with the precursors and, at this point, remains iffy in many categories with only Cinematography and the sound categories as major possibilities for recognition. If it shows up in significantly more categories, it could pull off a nod, but I’m doubtful.

Whiplash – The last potential film is also one of the higher potential nominees. Critics have been very supportive of the film and everyone’s seen it so they can judge J.K. Simmons’ frontrunning performance. That combined with the massive precursor love for the film even apart from Simmons’ awards (including the BAFTA nod for Best Director), means the film is almost assured a slot, though with so many indie efforts on the list, it could stumble from lack of familiarity. That hasn’t hurt the film yet.

---

That’s a lot to say about one year’s worth of races and it’s not the last thing I’ll have to say. With this, I almost assuredly lock in my nominations for the year. I will make one more revision this evening after the remaining guilds announce their nominations, then I’ll lock it in and wait for the nominations in the morning.

I’ve been given a code to embed the nominations announcement on my site and I’ll most certainly be posting that Thursday morning. So, you can come to my site, watch the fun and celebrate together.

As always, enjoy the Oscar nominations and we’ll see you on the other side.