There are generally three distinct periods in the film year. The most important to studios is the Summer film season running from May through August. This is where they make a good deal of their money with kids out of school and ready to spend money to be entertained. Then there’s Awards Season. This is the period running from September (sometimes October) through December in which studios roll out their major prestige pictures in hopes of bringing home the most coveted of industry prizes: The Academy Award. But often, they must impress the critics groups and sometimes even audiences in order to make that big acquisition. The third is what I call the doldrums or wasteland or dumping grounds, take your pick. This is the period from January through April in which a large portion of the potential duds get released. These can either be films studios don’t think would be big winners in the Summer and which failed to garner enough early buzz or test well with screening audiences for awards consideration.

The second period is what I’m concerning myself with today. While September rarely produces viable awards contenders, a few do emerge in the period, so I’m including it even though it’s generally a comparable wasteland to January-April (then again, so is August). My intention is to put together this little preview, then each month revise as things become more clear. The one thing I learned from my Tentpole Summer preview was that not having a clear picture in May of films releasing late in the period, can generate some distinctly overzealous and undereducated opinions.

Each film will have a brief description of the premise, a box office total forecast (what I think the film will make in its entire run), a list of awards and Oscar prospects (if they have any chance at contending) and my general thoughts on these two items. Each movie will be sorted into its expected release weekend, but things are never set in stone with smaller releases and could very well result in a vastly different release schedule the closer we get to the listed weekend. I will also not be detailing every release on a particular weekend. I’ll hit the major wide releases, but limit my coverage of limited and NY/LA releases to those which have the potential to become successes or Oscar contenders.

This is just part one (September through October). Part two will be posted on Friday.

SEPTEMBER 3-5, 2010

THE AMERICAN

Premise: Sent to Italy to complete one last job, an American assassin falls in love and risks losing everything, including his life.
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Thoughts: This isn’t your conventional George Clooney film and although it might spark the interests of some, others will turn away from the simple alien nature of it.
Oscar Prospects: Moderate
Thoughts: A lot depends not only on how critics respond, but audiences as well. While Clooney may be a potential nominee for the film (especially with a seeming dearth of contenders, the rest of the film needs many boosters to gain any traction.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: The American

GOING THE DISTANCE

Premise: Meeting six weeks before her departure for San Francisco, two New Yorkers become incomparably close but must resolve all the issues of a long-distance relationship.
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Thoughts: With two more potentially potent releases this week, I can see this one getting lost in the shuffle, but it’s also possible it could be a surprise hit, but that I seriously doubt.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: Going the Distance

MACHETE

Premise: Based on one of the acclaimed trailers from Robert Rodriguez and Quentin Tarantino’s double feature Grindhouse, a wronged man seeks revenge against those who destroyed his life.
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Thoughts: Never underestimate the power of cheese. The film is likely to make a strong opening weekend, but dwindle afterwards. The concept is just intense and intriguing enough to bring in quite a few people.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: Machete

THE TILLMAN STORY

Premise: Recounting the events leading up to the death of football star-turned-U.S. Soldier, this documentary attempts to expose a massive government cover up into a pre-packaged story of a war hero dying in the line of duty.
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Thoughts: Documentaries don’t excel at the box office unless they are hugely controversial and while this one might appear to be, I don’t know if there will be a lot of real support for it at the box office.
Oscar Prospects: Strong
Thoughts: I sense this becoming one of the strong front runners for the Oscars. It has a good blend of controversy and relevance, which is what Oscar voters seem to love in recent years.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: The Tillman Story

SEPTEMBER 10-12, 2010

I’M STILL HERE

Premise: This documentary follows actor Joaquin Phoenix as he quits acting to pursue a career as a hip-hop artist.
Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Thoughts: Curiosity-seekers are likely to want to see what all the fuss is about and see if this really is performance art or if Joaquin Phoenix has actually lost his beans.
Oscar Prospects: Weak
Thoughts: Whether it’s a documentary or not, the chances of nominations are slim, but there will be some support if it turns out to be any good.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: I’m Still Here

RESIDENT EVIL: AFTERLIFE

Premise: The mutating virus of the first three films has ravaged the world and Alice, the series’ protagonist, further attempts to unite the survivors and find a safe refuge from the vicious undead creatures the virus has created.
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Thoughts: Despite two- to three-year lags between releases, this series has a significant audience, scoring nearly $50 M each outing. While I would say the 3D aspect may increase some numbers, I figure some of that will be offset by people who are just getting fatigued by the franchise.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: Resident Evil: Afterlife

THE VIRGINITY HIT

Premise: A pseudo-documentary about four pals who decide to film one of their number’s attempt to lose his virginity.
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Thoughts: I never thought The Last Exorcism would be a hit, so this one could do well with the mockumentary style, but I’m not predicting much repeat business.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: The Virginity Hit

SEPTEMBER 17-19, 2010

DEVIL

Premise: Five strangers trapped in an elevator must survive a bizarre set of twisted events when one of them is not who they appear to be.
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Thoughts: Although the M. Night Shyamlan name isn’t exactly poison, his guaranteed audience is fairly low. The film’s only hope is to untether itself from his name and prove to be better than any of his recent offerings (since he’s not the director, it’s entirely possible).
Cinema Sight Preview Page: Devil

EASY A

Premise: An innocent lie about losing her virginity makes one high schooler into a modern day Hester Prynne as she uses modern social media to boost her credibility.
Box Office Prospects: $70 M
Thoughts: I’m predicting a higher result than I actually expect simply because the film looks like an absolute riot that could easily appeal to a broad cross section of audiences.
Oscar Prospects: Weak
Thoughts: Screenwriting is about the only place I could see the film competing, but that’s only if it’s exceptionally good and supported by critics. Think Election.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: Easy A

JACK GOES BOATING

Premise: A limo driver begins learning new life lessons after a successful blind date leads him down the path of love while the couple who introduced them begin to succumb to their own problems.
Box Office Prospects: $10 M
Thoughts: It’s an indie Oscar contender and not one of any importance, releasing against a number of bigger films, it’s prospects are limited.
Oscar Prospects: Moderate
Thoughts: I think this one is going to be pushed at least somewhat. Although, I’m not sure how well it will do with the Oscars. Philip Seymour Hoffman has to be the lone nominee that has a higher chance of happening than any other.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: Jack Goes Boating

NEVER LET ME GO

Premise: Three English school children grow into adults and find feelings of love emerging despite a grim reality that waits ahead for them.
Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Thoughts: I have no idea how this will fare with audiences. It’s not exactly the kind of film that ignites the box office, but if it is well received in limited release, we could see it expand enough to make a little bit of money.
Oscar Prospects: Moderate
Thoughts: Another film where critic reception will tell us everything. I feel like a broken record saying it, but with the likes of Carey Mulligan and Keira Knightley, anything is possible, especially with an acclaimed book at its back.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: Never Let Me Go

THE TOWN

Premise: A bank robber tries to reconcile his feelings for a bank manager from one of his previous jobs while trying to escape capture by a determined FBI agent.
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Thoughts: Ben Affleck isn’t a box office draw, but this is a heist film that has a bit of an indie soul, which might pique the interest of those reeling from disappointment with Takers. And since Gone Baby Gone was more niche than this genre, it could easily best that film’s $20 M tally.
Oscar Prospects: Moderate
Thoughts: Ben Affleck’s directorial achievements (well, the one of them so far) aren’t exactly Oscar anemic. Yet, whether he can make a big name for himself or not remains to be seen, but so far critics seem to like The Town a lot.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: The Town

SEPTEMBER 24-26, 2010

BURIED

Premise: Trapped six feet under in a coffin, a man desparately seeks answers and a way to escape.
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Thoughts: Ryan Reynolds has a few box office successes under his belt, but mostly because of other reasons. Yet, this indie film about a man trapped in a buried coffin may be just the kind of interesting gimmick to sell tickets. Similarly-schticky 2003 flick Phone Booth managed about $46 M, so I expect decent performance.
Oscar Prospects: Unlikely
Thoughts: Stranger things have happened and with this being an indie, who knows, but the likelihood is low.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: Buried

HOWL

Premise: The film follows the life and trial of Allen Ginsberg, one of the most important obscenity trials to date.
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Thoughts: Unless this becomes the year’s Milk, I doubt it will perform that well.
Oscar Prospects: Moderate
Thoughts: It has a strong cast and a historical premise, which should help with Oscar voters.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: Howl

LEGEND OF THE GUARDIANS

Premise: Raised on the stories of legendary guardians who will one day come to save the world from destruction, a small group of young owls find need of the Guardians’ support and go off in search of these famed creatures.
Box Office Prospects: $70 M
Thoughts: Animation generally does well at the box office even when it isn’t that great a film. However, with the state of art of some of the graphics that appear to be in it, this could either be a modest hit or a major one…but releasing closer to Thanksgiving would have helped more.
Oscar Prospects: Weak
Thoughts: It’s from the creators of Happy Feet, so it has to be considered in the running, but a September release doesn’t give much hope.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: The Legend of the Guardians

WAITING FOR SUPERMAN

Premise: A documentary about the sorry state of the American education system.
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Thoughts: Documentaries rarely do well, so don’t expect much here.
Oscar Prospects: Weak
Thoughts: If there weren’t so many more controversial topics in competition, it could be left in the dust. It needs a few prizes from critics to increase its chances.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: Waiting for Superman

WALL STREET: MONEY NEVER SLEEPS

Premise: Gordon Gekko is out of prison and has a protégé, his daughter’s fiance.
Box Office Prospects: $120 M
Thoughts: Shia Labeouf paired with Michael Douglas who is publicly facing a battle with cancer building a sequel off a popular ’80s anti-corporate feature in a weak economy should prove irresistable to a lot of people.
Oscar Prospects: Weak
Thoughts: People will talk about Michael Douglas getting a nomination for the same role he won for back in 1987, but Oliver Stone’s recent track record is abysmal, so the chances are slim without significant support from critics.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps

YOU AGAIN

Premise: When her brother becomes engaged, Marni discovers his fiancée is a girl who made her life miserable in High School and as her mother tries to quiet her frustrations, she discovers that his fiancée’s mother tormented her in High School as well.
Box Office Prospects: $80 M
Thoughts: Betty White is huge right now, but whether it will be enough or not remains to be seen. Still, with Jamie Lee Curtis and Sigourney Weaver headlining with Kristen Bell and Odette Yustman, it should perform modestly well.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: You Again

YOU WILL MEET A TALL DARK STRANGER

Premise: The latest relationship comedy from Woody Allen featuring a washed-up writer, his conflicted wife, an divorcee looking to find love again, a talented musician and a host of others.
Box Office Prospects: $7 M
Thoughts: Woody Allen is hit or miss with the box office, at least if you’re looking for a sub-$30 M finish. This one doesn’t look to have the Oscar capabilities of his bigger successes, so a low tally is expected.
Oscar Prospects: Unlikely
Thoughts: Allen is at a point in his career where Oscar isn’t that concerned. Occasionally, it will throw him a bone, but he’s had enough recognition that they aren’t likely to repeat as frequently.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger

OCTOBER 1-3, 2010

CASE 39

Premise: A child services caseworker takes a girl out of her murderous parents’ home to discover that dark forces are pursuing her and will not let anything or anyone stand in their way.
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Thoughts: With three horror flicks opening on the same weekend, it’s up to the inventive to win the day. This one will come in far below Let Me In, but with the cast and premise should do modest business for a horror film.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: Case 39

HATCHET II

Premise: A sequel to 2006 slasher flick about a hatchet-wielding psycho in the Louisiana swamps.
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Thoughts: The original made a scarce $175,281 at the box office 3 years ago. A sequel to a box office bomb doing well seems to be doubtful, especially opening against two other horror flicks with better marketing.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: Hatchet II

LET ME IN

Premise: A remake of the acclaimed Swedish horror film Let the Right One In about a strange child who drinks the blood of the living.
Box Office Prospects: $80 M
Thoughts: I have misgivings about the quality of the film, but remakes of foreign horror films have generally done well at the box office.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: Let Me In

THE SOCIAL NETWORK

Premise: The story of Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg and the origins of one of the most utilized social service in the history of the world.
Box Office Prospects: $90 M
Thoughts: Its success will entirely be based on curiosity and word of mouth. Those curious will see it first and if it’s good enough, they’ll spread the word. None of David Fincher’s films have performed under $30 M at the box office. And three of his films have made right around $100 M, so it should perform well and get a little extra boost with Oscar consideration.
Oscar Prospects: Strong
Thoughts: Critics seem to be lining up on the positive side for this film and with it being a modestly relevant story from a recent Oscar nominee, attention must be paid.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: The Social Network

OCTOBER 8-10, 2010

I SPIT ON YOUR GRAVE

Premise: A remake of the 1978 horror film about a woman who seeks revenge against the four men who rape her.
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Thoughts: Remakes of American horror films, unlike their foreign counterparts are a hit-or-miss thing. This one, being released unrated, may do worse at the box office than its contemporaries simply by being in fewer theaters.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: I Spit on Your Grave

INSIDE JOB

Premise: An examination of the financial crisis brought about by corporate greed and malfeasance.
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Thoughts: It won’t do gangbusters at the box office. Although people love getting mad at corporate greed and malfeasance, they don’t typically like forking over money for it.
Oscar Prospects: Strong
Thoughts: Another big Oscar contender with the requisite importance and controversy.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: Inside Job

LIFE AS WE KNOW IT

Premise: When a friend dies in an accident, two single adults become caregivers to her young girl.
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Thoughts: Sounds like another The Switch to me.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: Life As We Know It (NYI)

NOWHERE BOY

Premise: The untold story behind the rise of young John Lennon as he attempts to form a successful rock band.
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Thoughts: It may prove popular with Beatles fans, but how many of them out there will actually go see it. $24 M is what the Beatles-themed musical Across the Universe made and this one is likely to be a bigger Oscar contender than that film.
Oscar Prospects: Moderate
Thoughts: Will the Academy embrace a small British film about the modest beginnings of rock legends? Quite possibly, but there’s a lot of competition out there that may get more attention.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: Nowhere Boy

MY SOUL TO TAKE

Premise: Seventeen years after a serial killer was murdered, one of seven teenagers may house his soul and be seeking revenge against all those born the same night he was killed.
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Thoughts: He’s done well and he’s done poorly. Original concepts are sometimes tough sells for him, but this one should do decent horror-based business from those who can’t get into I Spit on Your Grave
Cinema Sight Preview Page: My Soul to Take

SECRETARIAT

Premise: The story of the real life trainer behind the legendary Triple Crown winner.
Box Office Prospects: $80 M
Thoughts: This film could do quite well if Seabiscuit is any indication. That film did surprisingly good business and with this film being in a similar milieu, we could see the same thing, but on a smaller scale. A lot also depends on Oscar’s reception of the film.
Oscar Prospects: Moderate
Thoughts: The inevitable comparisons to Seabiscuit will be everywhere. It’s one of the reasons the film appeared on my list back in May. Yet, something about this and the way it may play with critics could put it in a different category: a well received horse racing film.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: Secretariat (NYI)

STONE

Premise: A convict tries everything he can try to convince his case worker that he deserves to be paroled while working a plan with his wife to get the case worker caught in a situation that will give them leverage only to discover his wife may be preparing a double-cross.
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Thoughts: Big names don’t always sell films and this one looks like a bit of a downer. I don’t expect much out of the box office on this one.
Oscar Prospects: Unlikely
Thoughts: You have to expect Robert De Niro and Edward Norton to generate some manner of Oscar buzz. However, it’s even more likely we’ll see yet another Oscar bait film fail to ignite with critics and die an agonizing death of avoidance.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: Stone

OCTOBER 15-17, 2010

CONVICTION

Premise: A loving sister puts herself through law school in order to defend her incarcerated brother against a crime he did not commit.
Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Thoughts: It’s not a mass audience kind of film, though it could end up that way. However, I expect it to do poorly in general.
Oscar Prospects: Weak
Thoughts: Hilary Swank in any major drama should always be considered, though she didn’t do very well with Amelia. Still, with Sam Rockwell seeming to give an interesting performance in the trailer, this could pique voter curiosities, but we may have to wait and see how critics respond.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: Conviction

JACKASS 3D

Premise: The third film adaptation of the popular MTV series Jackass takes itself into the third dimension.
Box Office Prospects: $80 M
Thoughts: The first film made $64 M at the box office. The second made $72 M. I have little doubt that with the addition of a 3D element, the third should easily top those.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: Jackass 3D

RED

Premise: Retired CIA operatives discover a plot to kill them to keep their secrets safe and rebel against their would-be assassins.
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Thoughts: If it weren’t opening against another teenage boy-friendly movie, I’d say this would have the potential to be a hit. However, it could still perform well…then again, it could also end up like the similarly-targeted Scott Pilgrim.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: RED

OCTOBER 22-24, 2010

THE COMPANY MEN

Premise: A white collar worker is fired when his company is reorganized and must come to terms with his unemployment and struggle to restore the peace and serenity and safety he once possessed.
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Thoughts: Up in the Air was a modest hit despite being about the depressing subject of unemployment. This film isn’t likely to build the same reputation, largely because it’s not as large an Oscar contender as Up in the Air was, but it could still do somewhat well with good word of mouth.
Oscar Prospects: Moderate
Thoughts: A lot depends on how it does with critics. The film has the potential of uniting them to its recession-era rhetoric, but if it ends up too unoriginal or maudlin it could easily turn them all off.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: The Company Men

HEREAFTER

Premise: A supernatural thriller about three individuals touched differently by death. The film stars Matt Damon, Bryce Dallas Howard and Jay Mohr.
Box Office Prospects: $80 M
Thoughts: Scorsese had a massive hit earlier this year with another supernatural thriller, Shutter Island. And since Clint Eastwood has the capability of making money, it could be a modest hit.
Oscar Prospects: Moderate
Thoughts: Whether the subject doesn’t seem up the Academy’s alley or not, you cannot discount Clint Eastwood’s ability to bring home the gold. It is a major contender until critics tell us otherwise…after all, they sank Flags of Our Fathers and bolsters Letters from Iwo Jima (the reverse of what most of us were expecting at this time that year).
Cinema Sight Preview Page: Hereafter (NYI)

SAW 3D

Premise: The seventh and purportedly final installment of the popular bloody horror franchise Saw featuring the righteous serial killer Jigsaw.
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Thoughts: With age comes boredom. And even though the sixth film was a step up from the prior two entries in the franchise, audiences just didn’t turn out. Yet, with this being the purportedly final chapter and also being in 3D, curiosity should make for a robust return.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: Saw 3D

OCTOBER 29-31, 2010

MONSTERS

Premise: After an NASA probe crash lands in Mexico, strange new lifeforms begin appearing and threaten to kill everyone they meet.
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Thoughts: The glut of horror films in the marketplace inevitably mutes the box office potential of those kinds of films and with Paranormal Activity 2 also releasing this weekend, it is little doubt that not only will it open poorly, it will ultimately perform poorly.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: Monsters

PARANORMAL ACTIVITY 2

Premise: The sequel to the popular supernatural horror flick about the paranormal events that can be recorded from one stationary camera. Here, the plan seems to be to use more cameras.
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Thoughts: The original took in $107 M at the box office, a staggering feat. In most genres, sequels often outperform their predecessors, but in horror, the likelihood diminishes. A perfect example is the wildly popular Blair Witch Project ($140 M). It’s sequel the following year took in only $26 M. Other examples: The Ring ($129 M) & The Ring 2 ($76 M); The Grudge ($110 M) & The Grudge 2 ($39 M); Jaws ($260 M) & Jaws 2 ($81 M). Not every successful horror film can spawn successful sequels (Saw being one of the few exceptions). It could still be similar to Jaws and The Ring which had nice second runs, but a lot will depend on just how original the sequel ends up being.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: Paranormal Activity 2

WELCOME TO THE RILEYS

Premise: After the death of their daughter, a husband and wife slowly fall apart amid recriminations and sorrow, but when the husband takes it upon himself to help a young stripper who reminds him of his daughter, he begins the slow healing process that will hopefully help both he and his wife cope.
Box Office Prospects: $10 M
Thoughts: As Robert Pattinson can tell you, starring in an art film and banking on your name to sell tickets isn’t a successful proposition. Little Ashes, released the year after the first Twilight, managed a mere $481,586. While I don’t expect Rileys to be another Little Ashes, I doubt it will perform that well on Stewart’s name alone.
Oscar Prospects: Weak
Thoughts: It’s an art house film that seems to be lacking serious buzz. That simple fact could doom what is obviously an Oscar-desirous project.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: Welcome to the Rileys