While it is one of the most significant categories at the Oscars, the American Society of Cinematographers has a checkered past when it comes to selecting the winner that will match the Oscars. Look to this category to either clarify or muddy the waters, but it won’t be a definitively jumping off point for your predictions. Or, at least it shouldn’t be.

AMERICAN SOCIETY OF CINEMATOGRAPHERS AWARDS

Best Cinematography

Birdman (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
The Grand Budapest Hotel (RU:Thomas)
The Imitation Game
Mr. Turner (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
Unbroken (RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: The ASC loves certain cinematographers, delivering them countless trophies that are seldom reciprocated by the Academy Roger Deakins is one of those names and, he could be a threat to win this one even if he doesn’t have a shot at the Oscar. Emmanuel Lubezki is also well loved and almost suffered the same fate as Deakins until the Academy finally gave him an Oscar. That doesn’t mean much as this group is more likely to understand and appreciate the subtlety of Birdman‘s work. The Academy isn’t. If any other film wins, though, Birdman should definitely be vulnerable in this category at the Oscars.
Peter J. Patrick: Birdman‘s Lubezki is on a roll, but Unbroken‘s Deakins is always a threat. Either could win here.
Tripp Burton: Roger Deakins has won three times here before, so the sentiment for giving him a long-awaited award won’t play out here. Instead, the impressive trickery of Birdman will get an easy precursor.
Thomas LaTourette: Birdman seems like it is a slam dunk to win this award. The long tracking shots were something that everyone talked about after seeing this movie, and that should carry over to a very deserved award from the guild. I really can’t imagine it not winning, but if something were to pass it, I imagine it would be either the painterly hues of Mr. Turner or the formal shots of The Grand Budapest Hotel, with the latter probably having the better chance. Still, it will be Birdman.