The Academy Awards seem to be turning into the Spirit Awards, with dozens of surprise matches between the groups. Best Picture at the Oscars contains four of the five films nominated for Best Feature here. This will be the last precursor of the season and won’t really have much impact since it’s showing the day before the Oscars long after ballots are received and begin tabulation.

SPIRIT AWARDS

Best Feature

Birdman (Tripp, RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Boyhood (Wesley, Peter, Thomas, RU:Tripp)
Love Is Strange
Selma
Whiplash

Wesley Lovell: My general rule of thumb predicting at the Spirit Awards is to always go for the Oscar nominee in the category. Unfortunately, this year there are far too many to apply that rule perfectly. Here, I suspect a proxy battle will play out similar to the Oscars and Boyhood will eke out a victory over Birdman. Richard Linklater has been a big player in the indie game for years whereas Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu has mostly just dabbled.
Peter J. Patrick: No reason to think this one won’t follow earlier awards.
Tripp Burton: It’s the Oscars redux…I’ll go with the “hipper” choice here.
Thomas LaTourette: Like the Oscars, this is a race between Boyhood and Birdman. However, I am much more confident in predicting the Boyhood win here, as I think they will be admiring the 12 years it took to film this picture and that will guarantee victory.

Best First Feature

A Girl Walks Home Alone at Night
Dear White People (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Nightcrawler (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Obvious Child
She’s Lost Control

Wesley Lovell: Nightcrawler has the largest box office and was the only one of these in play at the Oscars. I believe it will probably win out over both Dear White People and A Girl Walks Home Alone at Night, the films that are its biggest competition.
Peter J. Patrick: Why not two for Nightcrawler?
Tripp Burton: Nightcrawler almost got an Oscar Best Picture nomination, so a win here should be well in its grasp.
Thomas LaTourette: The creepy Nightcrawler was a striking film both for its visuals and its acting and it will deservedly win here. Dear White People will garner some support, but people talked more about its screenplay than the finished picture, so I doubt it will get enough support to win.

John Cassavetes Award

Blue Ruin (Wesley, Tripp, RU:Thomas)
It Felt Like Love
Land Ho! (Peter, RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
Man from Reno
Test (Thomas, RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: These movies were so small that most audiences have never heard of them. I’ll admit that my selections are mostly guesses, but of the five, I heard most often about Blue Ruin.
Peter J. Patrick: Another wild guess.
Tripp Burton: The highest profile film usually wins here, so I have a hunch Blue Ruin will win, but audience pleaser Land Ho! could charm enough voters to sneak in and win.
Thomas LaTourette: I don’t know enough about these to write much, but these sound like the two most likely winners.

Best Director

Damien Chazelle – Whiplash
Ava DuVernay – Selma
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu – Birdman (Tripp, RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Richard Linklater – Boyhood (Wesley, Peter, Thomas, RU:Tripp)
David Zellner – Kumiko, Treasure Hunter

Wesley Lovell: Two of Oscar’s nominees are here along with two directors that likely came close to nominations. This should play out identically to Best Picture with Linklater topping Inarritu.
Peter J. Patrick: I don’t see a split between Director and Picture here
Tripp Burton: It is the same battle as Best Picture, and again I think the hipper choice wins. Unless the truly Independant story of the making of Boyhood gets Linklater some extra votes. Or if voters want to right the “snub” of Ava DuVernay at the Oscars and put her on this stage.
Thomas LaTourette: I think this is also safely in Linklater’s hands, even if the Oscar is up for grabs. Linklater will be honored for his devotion of taking 12 years to make this film. Inarritu is, once again, the strongest competition though Ava DuVernay could also be a factor for Selma, but I think it will easily be won by Linklater.

Best Female Lead

Marion Cotillard – The Immigrant (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Rinko Kikuchi – Kumiko, Treasure Hunter
Julianne Moore – Still Alice (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Jenny Slate – Obvious Child (RU:Tripp)
Tilda Swinton – Only Lovers Left Alive

Wesley Lovell: Julianne Moore is the only Oscar nominee in the bunch as Cotillard was nominated for a different film there (Two Days, One Night). Considering how popular her performance is, Moore seems like a shoo-in.
Peter J. Patrick: Like the other acting awards, this should all go to the Oscar front-runner.
Tripp Burton: Julianne Moore has been running the table, so expect her to pick up another award.
Thomas LaTourette: Moore should win again for this, as she has taken almost every award for a while. Her stiffest competition will be from Marion Cotillard, who will benefit from the late release of Two Days, One Night. However, Moore should win in a walk.

Best Male Lead

Andre Benjamin – Jimi: All Is By My Side
Jake Gyllenhaal – Nightcrawler (RU:Wesley)
Michael Keaton – Birdman (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
John Lithgow – Love Is Strange
David Oyelowo – Selma (RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Only one Oscar nominee making this list (though Oyelowo and Gyllenhaal should have been nominated at the Oscars) makes for an easy prediction. If Keaton carries over to Oscar as well, this will mark the second year in a row where the four Spirit Award acting winners were also the four Oscar winners in their respective categories.
Peter J. Patrick: Like the other acting awards, this should all go to the Oscar front-runner.
Tripp Burton: Without Eddie Redmayne, I would think that this will be an easy place for Michael Keaton to pick up another trophy. But David Oyelowo is on the sidelines, and if voters want to award Selma somewhere, he could be a possibility.
Thomas LaTourette: Keaton should easily win this without Eddie Redmayne as competition. Unlike at the Oscars, he will face serious challenges from Jake Gyllenhaal and David Oyelowo, but he should be victorious.

Best Supporting Female

Patricia Arquette – Boyhood (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Jessica Chastain – A Most Violent Year
Carmen Ejogo – Selma (RU:Tripp)
Andrea Suarez Paz – Stand Clear of the Closing Doors
Emma Stone – Birdman (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Two Oscar nominees on the list with Arquette an assured winner.
Peter J. Patrick: Like the other acting awards, this should all go to the Oscar front-runner.
Tripp Burton: The same as J.K. Simmons.
Thomas LaTourette: Arquette will surely win here as well as at the Oscars. Both Stone and the non-Oscar nominated Jessica Chastain will provide some competition, but Arquette will easily win.

Best Supporting Male

Riz Ahmed – Nightcrawler
Ethan Hawke – Boyhood
Alfred Molina – Love Is Strange
Edward Norton – Birdman (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
J.K. Simmons – Whiplash (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Three of this year’s Oscar nominees are together again, but only one will walk away a winner and that will be Simmons.
Peter J. Patrick: Like the other acting awards, this should all go to the Oscar front-runner.
Tripp Burton: The Oscar winner, if nominated, usually wins here, so J.K. Simmons it is.
Thomas LaTourette: Simmons will add another award to his mighty collection. As at the Oscars, his main competition is Norton, but I do not see him not winning.

Best Screenplay

Big Eyes
A Most Violent Year (RU:Thomas)
Nightcrawler (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Only Lovers Left Alive (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
Love Is Strange (RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: In a rare feat, only Love I Strange carries over from the Best Feature race to here. Nightcrawler is the only Oscar nominee in the bunch and therefore has the advantage.
Peter J. Patrick: Nightcrawler has to win something somewhere.
Tripp Burton: This is a very odd category, since without Birdman, Boyhood, Selma or Whiplash it seems like a free for all. Love Is Strange is the only Best Picture nominee in here, which could be a plus. Nightcrawler is the only Oscar nominee in here, which could also be a plus. A Most Violent Year could be a dark horse, as could longtime Indie stalwart Jim Jarmusch. I’m thinking Nightcrawler takes it, but nothing besides Big Eyes would surprise me.
Thomas LaTourette: I imagine that the creepy Nightcrawler will easily win here over the sentimental Love is Strange and the violent A Most Violent Year.

Best First Screenplay

Appropriate Behavior
Dear White People (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas)
Little Accidents (Peter, RU:Tripp)
The One I Love (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
She’s Lost Control

Wesley Lovell: It’s possible any of these could win, but Dear White People has gotten the most acclaim out of all of these films.
Peter J. Patrick: Just taking a wild guess here.
Tripp Burton: Justin Simien should get an easy win here, if only for being a crowd-pleasing film that hit a minor zeitgeist more than the other films.
Thomas LaTourette: Dear White People did have people talking about the insightful screenplay, so I imagine it will win over its lesser known competition.

Best Editing

Boyhood (Peter, Thomas, RU:Wesley)
The Guest
A Most Violent Year
Nightcrawler (RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
Whiplash (Wesley, Tripp, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: While I would love to predict Boyhood, I can’t help but believe that this award will end up with Whiplash. Both are nominated at the Oscars, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see either win.
Peter J. Patrick: Another likely Oscar mirror.
Tripp Burton: The pulsating Whiplash editing is a dark horse at the Oscars, but it will be a frontrunner here.
Thomas LaTourette: While the quick cuts of Whiplash probably deserve to win, I imagine that the 12 year editing work of Boyhood will prevail.

Best Cinematography

Birdman (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
A Girl Walks Home Alone at Night
The Immigrant (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
It Felt Like Love
Selma (RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Birdman is an easy victor as the only Oscar nominee, but more specifically because it’s the most acclaimed achievement in the group.
Peter J. Patrick: A likely Oscar mirror.
Tripp Burton: Birdman’s virtuoso one-shot feel can easily win here, but if enough voters watched the luscious The Immigrant it could sneak in.
Thomas LaTourette: As at the Oscars, Birdman will easily win. The long tracking shots were spectacular and deserve to win.

Best International Film

Force Majeure – Sweden (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Ida – Poland (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Mommy – Canada
Norte, The End of History – The Philippines
Under the Skin – United Kingdom

Wesley Lovell: The Oscar race is likely to play out here as well with Ida taking the prize over Force Majeure, though an easy case could be made for the opposite result.
Peter J. Patrick: Yet another Oscar mirror.
Tripp Burton: I’m guessing Ida has a good weekend next weekend, and this will add to it.
Thomas LaTourette: Ida should probably win here, though both Leviathan and Force Majeure will make it a close race.

Best Documentary

20,000 Days on Earth
Citizenfour (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
The Salt of the Earth (RU:Wesley)
Stray Dog
Virunga (RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Three Oscar nominees in competition. The likely Oscar winner will probably win this award as well.
Peter J. Patrick: Seems like a can’t miss prediction too.
Tripp Burton: It’s the Oscar redux, and CitizenFour should win an easy prize.
Thomas LaTourette: Oscar frontrunner Citizenfour will win over perhaps its strongest competitor in both races, Virunga.

Piaget Producers Award

Chad Burris (Wesley)
Elisabeth Holm (RU:Wesley)
Chris Ohlson

Wesley Lovell: Pure guess work on my part.

Kiehl’s Someone to Watch Award

Ana Lily Amirpour – A Girl Walks Home Alone at Night (Wesley)
Rania Attieh & Daniel Garcia – H
Chris Eska – The Retrieval (RU:Wesley)

Wesley Lovell: A Girl Walks Home Alone at Night has a great deal of acclaim and happens to be the only one of these films nominated elsewhere at the Spirit Awards giving it an advantage.

Lenscrafter Truer Than Fiction Award

Sara Dosa – The Last Season (RU:Wesley)
Dan Krauss – The Kill Team (Wesley)
Darius Clark Moore – Evolution of a Criminal
Amanda Rose Wilder – Approaching the Elephant

Wesley Lovell: I’m guessing on this based on the familiarity I have with the four nominees and which has received the most outside acclaim.