Yesterday, I posted the first part of my Awards Season Box Office/Oscar preview. Below are my analyses for November and December. Reminder: Oscar Prospects are not displayed for those films which are not Oscar contenders.

NOVEMBER 5-7, 2010

DUE DATE

Premise: Trying to get home for his child’s birth, a desperate father-to-be finds himself trapped in a disturbing road trip that threatens to destroy his sanity.
Box Office Prospects: $120 M
Thoughts: Blending the highly popular Robert Downey Jr. and The Hangover’s Zach Galifianakis could have a box office-saving capability. Plus, being a broad comedy like Tha Hangover should result in solid business.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: Due Date

FAIR GAME

Premise: Based on the true story of the revelation of undercover CIA agent Valerie Plame’s identity to the press in retaliation for her husband’s revelation of malfeasance at the White House.
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Thoughts: The big question is where Fair Game will play to audiences. Will it hit them in the conspiracy section of the brain or will it hit in the Iraq war portion of the brain. If the latter, expect lukewarm box office. If the former, it could perform quite well. I’m going for a muddled combination with a modest performance.
Oscar Prospects: Moderate
Thoughts: The big question is how critics and audiences respond. It’s the kind of film the Academy would love to honor if it’s really good. Sean Penn and Naomi Wats are likely contenders, but a lot depends on outside forces.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: Fair Game

FOR COLORED GIRLS WHO HAVE CONSIDERED SUICIDE WHEN THE RAINBOW IS ENUF

Premise: A drama based on Ntozake Shange’s about existence from the perspective of 20 nameless black females.
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Thoughts: Whoopi Goldberg is not the box office draw she used to be, but the popular book could provide just enough boost to box office to give it a solid, but small result.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: For Colored Girls Who Have Considered Suicide When the Rainbow Is Enuf (NYI)

MEGAMIND

Premise: Two arch rivals fight to dominate the world as super villain and super hero, each with something to prove.
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Thoughts: Will Farrell isn’t a box office force, but mixed with an animated film, it could be a strong performer indeed. And with few animated films already in release at the time, it should do quite well.
Oscar Prospects: Weak
Thoughts: If there are enough animated features for five nominees, it could be a contender. If there aren’t and we only have three, then it will be left behind.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: Megamind

127 HOURS

Premise: Trapped in a crevasse in the Grand Canyon, a young outdoorsman tries to cope with his situation and hope for survival.
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Thoughts: With the right vehicle, Danny Boyle can do sufficiently well at the box office. However, this just does not scream box office success.
Oscar Prospects: Moderate
Thoughts: Now that Danny Boyle has an Oscar, his films are going to spawn countless predictions for the next several years. However, if you look back at his history, only Trainspotting got anywhere near Oscar and that was only for an Adapted Screenplay nomination. Still, James Franco is a hot acting commodity, so he could be challenging himself in Howl for a nomination.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: 127 Hours

NOVEMBER 12-14, 2010

MORNING GLORY

Premise: A ratings-starved morning show gets a new producer who doesn’t realize the mess she’s getting into, including a vitriolic old newscaster who must be paired with a co-host with whom he has a confrontational history.
Box Office Prospects: $80 M
Thoughts: It hast the right performers to make a play at the older viewers that made Something’s Gotta Give, The Bucket List and It’s Complicated successful. Harrison Ford and Diane Keaton should do well with that audience and a clever concept may help further.
Oscar Prospects: Weak
Thoughts: In a weaker year for lead actresses, Diane Keaton might make another play for an Oscar nomination. Harrison Ford could still be given a chance if the film’s a big enough success with audiences and critics, but the film seems a touch lightweight for other serious Oscar consideration.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: Morning Glory

SKYLINE

Premise: After sending a message into deep space, earth is beset by an alien race bent on collecting them for their own nefarious purposes.
Box Office Prospects: $100 M
Thoughts: Alien abudction/invasion films often do well with audiences (see Independence Day, District 9, War of the Worlds). Even the minor ones that critics despite do somewhat well (the Day the Earth Stood Still remake). But several others have bombed (Battlefield Earth, The Invasion). And with the current marketing campaign, I could see it performing on par with expectations.
Oscar Prospects: None
Thoughts: Although Visual Effects must be considered a longshot possibility, I wouldn’t expect much more from the film.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: Skyline

UNSTOPPABLE

Premise: A runaway freight train carrying deadly combustible liquids barrels towards a major metropolitan area threatening to destroy it.
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Thoughts: This is quite a weekend for box office potential, yet this Speed-meets-Taking of Pelham 123 film must bank entirely on Denzel Washington’s name to sell tickets. Yet, even Washington’s successes have been modest, so I don’t expect a lot, but do expect solid numbers.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: Unstoppable (NYI)

NOVEMBER 19-21, 2010

HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATH HALLOWS, PART I

Premise: The first half of the final film in the acclaimed series takes Harry Potter and his friends Ron and Hermione and puts them square into the battle against Voldemart and his resurfaced army as they attempt to bring their new dominion to the world and kill Potter in the process.
Box Office Prospects: $300 M
Thoughts: The LEAST the film will do is $250 M. Even the least popular, but most critically acclaimed chapter in the series (Prisoner of Azkaban) made less than $500 k below that figure. This is a guaranteed success. Add in the 3D ticket prices that are sure to draw a lot of curiosity seekers and it could easily come in right behind, if not ahead of the sixth entry, Half-Blood Prince. And if the audiences really favor it, it could top the original’s $317 M tally.
Oscar Prospects: Moderate
Thoughts: Much to our surprise, the film has been regularly picking up Oscar nominations and seldom in the same categories. With nominations in Original Score (twice), Visual Effects, Art Direction, Costume Design and Cinematography categories to date, any one of those could be heavily considered and with the recent increase in five spot for Visual Effects, my best bet is a guaranteed VFX nod plus maybe one or two other categories.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part I

THE NEXT THREE DAYS

Premise: After his wife is put in prison for murder, a desperate husband decides to break her out so he and his family can live in peace.
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Thoughts: Russell Crowe is a lot like Denzel Washington in that his films are rarely ever blockbusters, but seldom unmitigated disasters. So, I expect his film to do quite well and having a slightly original story compared with Unstoppable, I give this film the edge for final numbers.
Oscar Prospects: Unlikely
Thoughts: Russell Crowe isn’t exactly Oscar shy, but this type of film doesn’t really translate into Oscar glory, but one never knows in the most remote sense of the phrase.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: The Next Three Days

NOVEMBER 26-28, 2010

BURLESQUE

Premise: With dreams of making it in Los Angeles, a young woman finds her passion on the stage of a high class burlesque show.
Box Office Prospects: $80 M
Thoughts: As I progress through the features in this article, I’m seeing tons of potential box office successes. I think this may well be another one of them. Cher and Christina Aguilera are pop celebrities (the former being an icon), and with a strip-tease subject like this, I could see it become a modest hit.
Oscar Prospects: Weak
Thoughts: One of things most appealing about the film is its potential for bottom-ballot nominations (such as Art Direction and Costume Design). If the story is even remotely interesting, it could become the latest musical to be considered a contender for more nominations. However, Cher hasn’t had an Oscar contender in some time and Aguilera’s an unknown quantity. Mix in the likelihood for broad new generational appeal and it may just be enough to keep Oscar voters from taking it seriously.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: Burlesque

FASTER

Premise: An ex-con seeks revenge against the man that betrayed him and his brother resulting in his brother’s death, but is pursued by both a cop and a hit man.
Box Office Prospects: $70 M
Thoughts: Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson isn’t a box office novice, but the movie looks about as tame as his past efforts. Yet, he hasn’t done a non-comedy in three years (the bomb Southland Tales) and the last dramatic action film before that, Doom, was a colossal failure ($28 M). So, a lot will depend on how well he manages to parlay his comic popularity into broad action appeal.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: Faster

THE KING’S SPEECH

Premise: King George VI’s terrible speech impediment threatens his ability to govern the nation after his brother abdicates the throne leaving him to face an entire nation and a disability he must struggle to relieve.
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Thoughts: George VI’s daughter Elizabeth II had a modest success in 2006 with The Queen starring Helen Mirren, but it was propelled by Oscar consideration. The same could apply to The King’s Speech which opens the same week The Queen did.
Oscar Prospects: Strong
Thoughts: Until we hear from the critics, we won’t know exactly where the film stands with Oscar. A nomination for Colin Firth seems all but assured and possibly even a win, but the rest of the film’s chances hinge on those critics.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: The King’s Speech (NYI)

LOVE AND OTHER DRUGS

Premise: A pharmaceutical salesman uses his charisma to win over new conquests, but when he meets a woman of equal appeal, he can’t seem to shake his feelings for her.
Box Office Prospects: $70 M
Thoughts: A Jake Gyllenhaal/Anne Hathaway pairing could be a recipe for box office success. But neither is a proven box office draw and being an Oscar contender, the film’s prospects dwindle a bit. But a strong return is a good possibility all things considered.
Oscar Prospects: Strong
Thoughts: Edward Zwick has a troubled past with Oscar. His films inevitably develop early buzz that peters out just in time for nominations. However, he has still managed a few nods for his films. Yet, a 10-slot Oscar Best Picture field and a highly regarded performance by Anne Hathaway could propel the film to heights that Zwick has long been denied.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: Love and Other Drugs

RED DAWN

Premise: A remake of the 1984 cult hit about a full scale Communist invasion of middle-America, this time including Chinese forces.
Box Office Prospects: $120 M
Thoughts: The original holds a place in the hearts of a lot of young Gen-X moviegoers. Most will remember the film fonly despite being strong anti-Soviet propaganda set during the Cold War. The Cold War is long over, so the remake makes little sense. However, I still think it will be box office gold.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: Red Dawn (NYI)

TANGLED

Premise: Disney takes the classic fairy tale of the tressed maiden Rapunzel trapped atop her prison tower and weaves its long dormant magic.
Box Office Prospects: $100 M
Thoughts: After the bad taste of Home on the Range faded, The Princess and the Frog turned a tidy profit for the once venerable Walt Disney animation. Now, they are out with their second feature, but one avoiding hand-drawn animation. Still, Disney will succeed as long as the film is of high enough quality and with John Lasseter in control, it should be.
Oscar Prospects: Moderate
Thoughts: While its chances of nominations outside of Animated feature are limited to Original Score and possible SOund Mixing or Sound Editing, it should fare pretty well with Animated Feature voters, but could face stiff competition for a slot if there aren’t enough features in release for a five-slot field.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: Tangled

DECEMBER 3-5, 2010

BLACK SWAN

Premise: Struggling to become Prima Ballerina in the New York City Ballet Company, Nina must move beyond the role of White Swan in Swan Lake and learn how to embrace her Black Swan without being consumed by it.
Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Thoughts: Even Darren Aronofsky’s best received films don’t do very well at the box office, so don’t expect a lot from this one.
Oscar Prospects: Moderate
Thoughts: The subject matter is a bit bizarre for Oscar voters, but with Natalie Portman earning buzz for her performance, the film might get swept in as well.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: Black Swan

I LOVE YOU PHILLIP MORRIS

Premise: A serious accident causes a happily married man to re-evaluate his life, realizing in the process that he’s gay and living life to the fullest until he ends up in prison where he meets the man of his dreams and embarks on a series of successful cons to help them get free and live a better life.
Box Office Prospects: $120 M
Thoughts: Jim Carrey has been a box office draw for the better part of 16 years. His few misfires were either Oscar baiters (Man on the Moon, The Majestic, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind) or drastic departures (The Number 23, The Cable Guy). His ability to draw more than $100 M in receipts at the box office should help propel this film, more squarely in his comic wheelhouse, into that territory as well.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: I Love You Phillip Morris (NYI)

MIRAL

Premise: An orphaned Palestinian girl grows up during the first Arab-Israeli war and finds herself drawn into it.
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Thoughts: Even Julian Schnabel’s biggest Oscar success barely eked out a $5 M return. This one should suffer the same fate.
Oscar Prospects: Moderate
Thoughts: Schnabel is no stranger to Oscar consideration and this film seems perfect for the Academy, but will they actually pay attention to this one. Perhaps an acting nomination, but I wouldn’t guarantee anything at this point.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: Miral (NYI)

THE TOURIST

Premise: A deliberate encounter brings romance to an American in Italy attempting to mend his broken heart.
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Thoughts: This isn’t exactly a box office kind of film, but it could be with stars Johnny Depp and Angelina Jolie together, but it seems more Oscar fodder than box office fodder.
Oscar Prospects: Moderate
Thoughts: A shift into Oscar consideration after being scheduled originally for 2011 suggests producers think they have a shot at Oscar. The cast is good, but the film remains unseen, which makes for an unknown quantity at this juncture.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: The Tourist (NYI)

THE WARRIOR’S WAY

Premise: An Asian warrior settles down in a small, forgotten western town, but escaping his past isn’t an easy task.
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Thoughts: No major box office names. Not an important. It strikes me as the kind of film that gets lost in the shuffle and doesn’t make much at the box office.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: The Warrior’s Way

DECEMBER 10-12, 2010

THE CHRONICLES OF NARNIA: THE VOYAGE OF THE DAWN TREADER

Premise: The third film in The Chronicles of Narnia series finds the kids returning to Narnia to help save the kingdom once more, this time upon the royal ship The Dawn Treader.
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Thoughts: The second film, due to an umimpressive execution, made less than half what the original film did at the box office. This third film will need to impress audiences for repeat business if it wishes to do well, but releasing on the same weekend the original did and not competing in the Summer may help with that.
Oscar Prospects: Weak
Thoughts: The original film scored three nominations, and even took one home for Best Makeup. The second film failed to register at all. I doubt the third film will either, but with five slots available for Visual Effects, it could still sneak in.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader

THE FIGHTER

Premise: A biopic on boxer “Irish” Mickey Ward surrounding his training and ultimate emergence into prominence.
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Thoughts: Not every boxing film can be Rocky, but strong returns can often be found in the genre, even considering the Oscar baity flicks like Cinderella Man, Ali and The Hurricane doing more than $50 M in business.
Oscar Prospects: Strong
Thoughts: Early buzz has the film contending in several key races, but a lot will depend on how critics warm up to the film. We could have another Cinderella Man or another The Hurricane. But, the Academy does love boxers, so Mark Wahlberg has to be seen as a contender. But the real prize is Editing. The Academy adores a well-edited boxing film.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: The Fighter (NYI)

THE TEMPEST

Premise: In William Shakespeare’s classic drama The Tempest, the societal outcast Prospero is re-imagined as a woman.
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Thoughts: If The Beatles couldn’t save Taymor’s Across the Universe from a box office mediocrity, then I don’t think Shakespeare can.
Oscar Prospects: Strong
Thoughts: Aside from Helen Mirren being back in the hunt for Best Actress, the film is sure to bring nominations in several tech categories including Art Direction and Costume Design.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: The Tempest (NYI)

DECEMBER 17-19, 2010

HOW DO YOU KNOW

Premise: Trying to figure out what she wants from life, a New Yorker finds herself torn between her current boyfriend and another man.
Box Office Prospects: $70 M
Thoughts: Jack Nicholson is no slouch when it comes to box office. Of his last 7 films, five were above or near $100 M at the box office. This one doesn’t seem to have Nicholson playing lead, so I’m guessing the box office will be slightly diminished.
Oscar Prospects: Moderate
Thoughts: James L. Brooks is no stranger to the Oscars. Three of the five films he’s directed were big Oscar contenders, winning several awards and each being nominated for Best Picture. The likelihood of this streak continuing is high, but his last film six years ago was a dud making it now 13 years since his Oscar winner As Good As It Gets. On the reverse of that, there was a dud between it and his prior Oscar contender Broadcast News 10 years before As Good As It Gets, so anythign is possible. Not to mention Paul Rudd has been needing an Oscar vehicle for some time and this could be it.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: How Do You Know

TRON: LEGACY

Premise: A re-envisioning of the legendary ’80s virtual reality film Tron, where the son of the original’s lead steps into the virtual world to assist his lost father.
Box Office Prospects: $200 M
Thoughts: The first major release this year to use 3D effects to their full ability. It should prove a strong box office name, but won’t live up to Avatar expectations.
Oscar Prospects: Moderate
Thoughts: The only categories the film will really contend in are technical, but a nomination for Visual Effects is all but assured and Sound Mixing and Sound Editing are also strong bets.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: Tron: Legacy

YOGI BEAR

Premise: A live-action/cgi hybrid adaptation of the classic cartoon about a talking bear and his young cub cohort who steal picnic baskets from unsuspecting campers.
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Thoughts: The only name in the cast that has any potential to draw an audience is Justin Timberlake, but not only has he not been a box office success story in the past, he’s doing a barely-recognizable voice over. While this could be a huge hit for the end of the year box office for kids, the trailer looks atrocious and it’s beginning to smell like another Marmaduke…but it could also be another Alvin and the Chipmunks. We’ll have to see how audiences will respond.
Oscar Prospects: Weak
Thoughts: There may be enough animation in it to put it into the Animated Feature category, but as Alvin and the Chipmunks can tell you, that doesn’t mean a heck of a lot.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: Yogi Bear

DECEMBER 24-26, 2010

GULLIVER’S TRAVELS

Premise: He wins
Box Office Prospects: $120 M
Thoughts: He wins some. He loses others. His biggest hits (Tropic Thunder, Kung Fu Panda and King Kong) could be said to have been because of other parties. His two directly-responsible projects posted $80 M numbers. Still, this is the kind of film built for holiday audiences, so I expect it to out-do his previous name-recognized efforts by a decent amount.
Oscar Prospects: Weak
Thoughts: It’s only real shot at Oscar recognition is in Visual Effects, but these kinds of effects have been done before and in a comedy it makes it a tougher sell, still you have to expect it to be somewhere on the semi-final list.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: Gulliver’s Travels (NYI)

THE ILLUSIONIST

Premise: A stage magician finds himself losing out to rock stars and other stage personalities finds himself in increasingly more limited venues until a young fan changes his life forever.
Box Office Prospects: $8 M
Thoughts: Although many critics loved his prior film, audiences didn’t really get to see it, giving it a small $7 M run. This time I don’t expect much else to happen.
Oscar Prospects: Strong
Thoughts: He has two Oscar nominated projects (short film La Vielle Dame et les Pigeons and animated feature The Triplets of Belleville), so it’s a good bet he’ll be in the hunt again this year. Though, if there are only three nomination slots, he may have to work hard for a nod.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: The Illusionist (NYI)

LITTLE FOCKERS

Premise: The third film in the popular Meet the Parents trilogy brings the entire family back together to explore the joys of parenting.
Box Office Prospects: $240 M
Thoughts: The first film was a hit. The second film was a smash. The concept is getting a bit stale, so I expect the numbers to finish lower than the Meet the Fockers total of $279, but not by a lot.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: Little Fockers

SOMEWHERE

Premise: A bad boy actor is caught by surprise when his 11-year-old daughter arrives to stay with him in L.A. forcing him to re-evaluate his party lifestyle.
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Thoughts: A lot will depend on how Oscar shines to it. If Oscar goes the Lost in Translation route, it could do well (hence my prediction above), but if it goes the Marie Antoinette route, then mediocre indie numbers are expected.
Oscar Prospects: Strong
Thoughts: Sofia Coppola is probably one of the hottest properties on the female directing scene. Marie Antoinette suffered from mixed critical reaction, so a lot will depend on how Somewhere plays. Many are putting it on the level of Lost in Translation which can only help.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: Somewhere

TRUE GRIT

Premise: U.S. Marshal Rooster Cogburn helps a young woman track down the individual who murdered her father.
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Thoughts: The Coens are not box office names, but with this being a remake of a highly popular John Wayne western, it could perform quite well. However, older audiences may be quickly turned off by the amount of violence that’s said to be in it, so repeat business won’t be much.
Oscar Prospects: Strong
Thoughts: With their surprise nominations for A Serious Man last year, you can’t not expect the Coens to figure in the Oscars. Matter of fact, they could be mainstays of the Best Picture race for the forseeable future with all of their fans in the Academy. On top of that, both Jeff Bridges and Josh Brolin are in contention for nominations and possibly even awards.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: True Grit (NYI)

COUNTRY STRONG

Premise: A promising country music singer falls for a fading starlet.
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Thoughts: The closest comparison to this is Crazy Heart, but that had the benefit of featuring Oscar winner Jeff Bridges in the role of his career. However, the only name of note here is Gwyneth Paltrow and she’s not likely to help with box office.
Oscar Prospects: Weak
Thoughts: A release this late in the year can only be seen as an attempt at Oscar recognition. However, there has been very little buzz surrounding the film, so I wouldn’t expect a lot from it.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: Country Strong (NYI)

DECEMBER 31-JANUARY 2, 2010

ANOTHER YEAR

Premise: No synopsis immediately available.
Box Office Prospects: $4 M
Thoughts: His best performer was Oscar Best Picture nominee Secrets & Lies back in 1996. Since then, he’s topped $5 M only once with 1999’s Topsy-Turvy. $3-4 M seems a common total for his films.
Oscar Prospects: Strong
Thoughts: Never bet against Mike Leigh. His previous two outings (Happy-Go-Lucky, Vera Drake) managed Oscar nominations for writing, with Vera Drake even picking him up nods for Best Director and a nod for star Imelda Staunton. Prior to that, Topsy-Turvy earned four nominations (including writing) and won two of three tech awards. Secrets & Lies is still his best performer with five nominations (again for writing). So, as long as this isn’t another All or Nothing, expect at least a writing nomination for Leigh.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: Another Year (NYI)

BLUE VALENTINE

Premise: A couple experience a sharp contrast in their relationship across the span of several years.
Box Office Prospects: $10 M
Thoughts: Two indie powerhouses with no measurable box office clout come together in a surefire Oscar contender. Sounds like middle of the road returns to me.
Oscar Prospects: Strong
Thoughts: With Oscar nominees Michelle Williams and Ryan Gosling teaming up for a relationship drama, there are bound to be sparks of conflict and plenty of Oscar consideration. Although Williams never managed the nomination for Wendy & Lucy many thought, she may well end up nominated this time alongisde Gosling.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: Blue Valentine (NYI)

THE DEBT

Premise: 30 years after capturing and killing a Nazi war criminal, three Mossad agents must cope with the possibility that a new man claiming to be this Nazi has resurfaced.
Box Office Prospects: Three young Israeli Mossad agents capture and kill a notorious war criminal. However, 30 years later, the three discover that the Nazi is alive and well and living in Ukraine and they must go back undercover to find out what’s going on.
Thoughts: $10 M
Oscar Prospects: Moderate
Thoughts: Without reviews, it’s hard to know if this will be a contender or not. It has the right story. It has the right cast. It has the right production backing. If critics find it anything on par with Munich, an Oscar contender it will be.
Cinema Sight Preview Page: The Debt