For our eighth Rundown article, we look at the men (typically at least for the Oscars) who control every aspect of a film’s vision. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Director as well as general commentary about the race. Thursday, we’ll cover two categories where creating motion from still images is par for the course (and I’m not talking about persistence of vision).

Best Director

Winner Predictions

• Lenny Abrahamson – Room
• Alejandro G. Inarritu – The Revenant (WL R) [New] (WL R) [New](TL O)
• Tom McCarthy – Spotlight
• Adam McKay – The Big Short (TB R) [New]
• George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road

Runner-Up Predictions

• Alejandro G. Inarritu – The Revenant (TB R) [New]
• Tom McCarthy – Spotlight (PP R) [New]
• George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road (WL R) [New](TL O)

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Wesley Lovell: Now that the Directors Guild of America (DGA) has weighed in, it seems like Alejandro G. Inarritu is about to go down in history as only the third director to win back-to-back Oscars for Best Director after only John Ford and Joseph L. Mankiewicz. While that possibility is still strong, some aren’t assured of his chances. George Miller’s film has just as many tech nominations and will likely win more of them than The Revenant will. With no women nominated, it’s also possible that voters will want to recognize Miller’s feminist narrative in some way. Right now, this is Inarritu’s to lose, but Miller, Tom McCarthy or Adam McKay all have fairly solid chances of winning, especially if Best Picture is destined to one of their films.
Peter J. Patrick: Rarely does the Academy’s assessment differ from that of the DGA which makes this Inarritu’s to lose. However, only two directors in Oscar history have had back-to-back wins. Should Inarritu win, he’ll be joining John Ford and Joseph L. Mankiewicz in that rarified air. If the Academy chooses to deny him that recognition, any of the other nominees could win. My personal choice would be actor-writer-director Tom McCarthy so I’ll go with him as my runner-up.
Tripp Burton: It is very rare (although becoming more common) that the DGA winner and the Oscar winner don’t line up, but I have a hard time seeing Alejandro G. Inarritu joining the elite ranks of back-to-back Best Director winners. However, The Revenant continues to surprise me with the number of awards it can pick up, so maybe I am merely underestimating it again. The fact that Best Picture is so in flux should keep this category a big question mark too, and my hunch is that Adam McKay manages to win here, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Thomas McCarthy up there either.
Thomas La Tourrette: This had been a difficult category to predict until the DGAs. Now it seems fairly certain that Alejandro G. Inarritu will join John Ford and Joseph Mankeiwicz as the only directors to win back-to-back awards. The movie was supposedly very difficult to make, but he was a surprise winner at the guild. George Miller always seemed a strange choice to be the frontrunner, as Mad Max is just not the type of film that the Academy honors in this category. Lenny Abrahamson never stood much of a chance for winning for Room. Both Adam McKay (The Big Short) and Tom McCarthy (Spotlight) would be deserving winners, but they just never seemed to catch on and gain any traction in the race. The Revenant has actor and cinematography locked up, and now it looks like director is likely. I am still not certain if the movie will end up sweeping, or even winning Best Picture, but Inarritu should repeat as best director.

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