Through 2006, the USC Scripter prize was a poor predictor of the Oscars. Frequently going for major novelists (whom they award alongside the screenwriters) over Oscar winners. However, from 2007 on, the USC Scripter has only once gone to a film that didn’t also win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay. That was 2009, the year everyone was sure Alexander Payne’s film would take the Oscar for Up in the Air, which won at USC, but then lost the Oscar to Lee Daniels’ Precious in one of the night’s major upsets. 7 out of 8 accurate predictions is a trend. They have the WGA bested by one (in addition to the Up in the Air loss, the WGA also picked Captain Phillips over 12 Years a Slave. For those curious about the proceedings, the USC Libraries live streams their awards ceremony every year. It’s worth checking out.

USC SCRIPTER AWARDS

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Big Short (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Brooklyn (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
The End of the Tour (RU:Tripp)
The Martian
Room (RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Once upon a time, this group went with big name novelists, but those days are over. With their almost unerring prediction rate in the last eight years, it’s safe to assume that Oscar frontrunner The Big Short will win. If it doesn’t, then look for a potential Oscar upset. It’s too bad they didn’t nominate Carol.
Peter J. Patrick: I’d give it to Brooklyn, but they won’t.
Tripp Burton: The Big Short seems to be the Oscar frontrunner for Adapted Screenplay, and that should carry over nicely here. The big alternative could be if the literary voters love their David Foster Wallace biopics.
Thomas LaTourette: With the Writers Guild and BAFTA awards under its belt, The Big Short should easily pick up this award as well. Its closest competitor would be Room, which would have been the hardest book to adapt to film of the bunch, but it stands little chance of winning.