For our sixteenth Rundown article, we look at the final foundation category. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Adapted Screenplay as well as general commentary about the race. Tuesday, we’ll cover the two categories that feed our ears with all its non-musical goodness.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Winner Predictions

• The Big Short (WL O) (PP R) [New] (TB O) (TL R) [New]
• Brooklyn
• Carol
• The Martian
• Room

Runner-Up Predictions

• Brooklyn (PP R) [New]
• Room (WL O) (TB R) [New] (TL R) [New]

(color and symbol key at bottom of page)

Wesley Lovell: With both the Writers Guild of America and the USC Scripter Awards agreeing on The Big Short as the year’s best adapted screenplay, I see little reason not to believe the Academy will go the same direction. The film has been winning left and right and, since it’s becoming less likely the film wins Best Picture, this will be the only place for voters to recognize the film. However, look out for the Up in the Air precedent. The last time a seriocomedy was nominated and won all the precursors in sight, it still managed to get upset at the Oscars by a more serious drama, in that case it was Precious. While I don’t see that kind of spoiler in either Brooklyn or Room, never count this one as a sealed deal until the envelope is opened.
Peter J. Patrick: Brooklyn, Carol and Room would all have a shot if the over-praised The Big Short weren’t the sure thing it is, but since it is, it will win.
Tripp Burton: The Big Short won both the WGA and USC Scripter Award, and that is about as surefire a path to the Oscar as you can get. If it somehow doesn’t win at the Oscar, look for either Room or Carol to be the victor, but that is a very long shot.
Thomas La Tourrette: The Big Short has won the most precursor awards, including the prestigious Writers Guild, USC scripter and BAFTA awards. The Big Short should easily continue that run by winning the Oscar as well. Its closest competitor would be Room, which would have been the hardest book to adapt to film of the bunch, but it stands little chance of winning. Unless The Big Short pulls off what is starting to seem like an improbable win for Best Picture, even with its Producers Guild award, this is likely the only Oscar it will take home.

KEY: