For our twentieth and final Rundown article, the big one. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Picture as well as general commentary about the race.

Best Picture

Winner Predictions

• The Big Short (TB R) [New]
• Bridge of Spies
• Brooklyn
• Mad Max: Fury Road
• The Martian
• The Revenant (WL R) [New](TL O)
• Room
• Spotlight (PP O)

Runner-Up Predictions

• The Big Short (TL R) [New]
• The Revenant (PP R) [New] (TB R) [New]
• Spotlight (WL R) [New]

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Wesley Lovell: While I think there’s a little part of everyone who hopes that The Revenant doesn’t win, all signs are pointing towards its victory. BAFTA was likely the final nail in all others’ coffins. It’s possible that the more distinctly American Spotlight could eke out a victory, but all signs are currently pointing to Alejandro G. Inarritu becoming the first director in history to capture back-to-back Best Picture wins.
Peter J. Patrick: I’m sticking with my original prediction of Spotlight, but a win for either The Revenant or PGA winner The Big Short would not surprise me.
Tripp Burton: It’s been since 2000 since we have had a legitimate three-man race in the Best Picture category, and even Gladiator seemed a lot more assured than this year. I think I would be more comfortable picking DGA-winner The Revenant if Inarritu wasn’t coming off a win last year, and if the film wasn’t so polarizing. For every first place vote it has, it seems like it also has a last-place vote. Long-time frontrunner Spotlight would seem like a logical film to step in, but PGA winner The Big Short seems to be the hotter movie right now. To be honest, though, I have no idea and won’t be surprised to see any of those three movies win.
Thomas La Tourrette: This has been a confusing year with the PGA, DGA and SAG cast award going to different films. This does not happen terribly often as usually at least two, if not all three, will line up. When The Big Short won the PGA, it was unexpected, but I figured that it was now the film to beat. It proved a short lived frontrunner as later awards have muddied the picture. The very next week, Spotlight won the SAG cast award. The SAG cast award is not as good a precursor as the others, so even with that win the very good Spotlight looks to be out of the running. A slew of guild awards and some Oscar nominations in unexpected categories, showed strong support for The Revenant across the board. The DGA had never given its award to the same director two years in a row, but Alejandro G. Inarritu now has that distinction. The BAFTA award was somewhat surprising as Revenant is such an American film, that I figured that would hurt its chances in Britain. With the DGA and BAFTA wins, along with cinematography and sound guild wins, The Revenant has become the film to beat. That could still happen, as it has a reasonably tenuous hold as the frontrunner, but its chances are looking pretty solid. In my mind that is a pity as it is the weakest of the three films mentioned so far, and some of the others nominated are definitely better. However, The Revenant has positioned itself as the likely winner and that is what will occur on Sunday night.

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