The indie version of the Oscars, the strict guidelines (that have too often been ignored at the behest of certain “specialty” studios) keep out most Hollywood fare allowing us to look at some of the more compelling fare out there. Unlike the last couple of years, overlap with the Oscars has been minimal, which makes these prizes less of a foreshadowing of the Oscars and rather a chance for some films and performances that won’t be getting Oscar gold to shine.

Normally, I post our predictions articles the day before the ceremony, but because Friday will be a very busy day for the site, we’re releasing these today (Thursday). These are the first full slate of nominees announced every year, so there’s plenty of time to understand where they are likely to go, thus an extra day of deliberation isn’t necessary.

SPIRIT AWARDS

Best Feature

Anomalisa
Beasts of No Nation (RU:Tripp)
Carol (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Spotlight (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Tangerine

Wesley Lovell: Before I get into my commentary, let me state for the record that I vote for the Spirit Awards. In my predictions, I will not be revealing my vote, nor will I allow my vote to influence how I choose the winners as many of the likely winners this year aren’t my top choice. So, here’s my commentary: The year’s most nominated films at the Spirit awards were Carol and Spotlight and I think it will come down to the two of them for this prize. While I think Carol is much more in line with the purpose and “spirit” of these awards, it’s hard to argue with a major contender for the Best Picture Oscar losing out.
Peter J. Patrick: The investigative drama, Spotlight should prevail here.
Tripp Burton: I have no real idea of how this will play out. Will the easily accessible Netflix achievement triumph over the awards favorite. I could even see Carol sneaking in for a win. This will be an exciting night.
Thomas LaTourette: Spotlight seems like it should be the easy winner here, having been a critical darling for some time. Carol was not as popular, so it probably won’t win. Anomalisa and Tangerine would seem a little too far out to win, and Beasts of No Nation may lose some traction by being made by Netflix. Spotlight should win.

Best First Feature

James White (Peter, RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Manos Sucias
Mediterranea
Songs My Brothers Taught Me
The Diary of a Teenage Girl (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas, RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: From all appearances, The Diary of a Teenage Girl may be the most acclaimed film on this list, but Mediterranea and James White are equally strong potential winners.
Peter J. Patrick: I give the edge to the critically acclaimed James White.
Tripp Burton: Diary of a Teenage Girl has the most buzz out of this list, and feels the most polished, so it should triumph here easily.
Thomas LaTourette: I am going with the movies I have heard more about, so James White and more probably The Diary of a Teenage Girl seem the likely winners.

John Cassavetes Award

Advantageous (Thomas, RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
Christmas, Again
Heaven Knows What (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Krisha
Out of My Hand (RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: Without being overly familiar with these films, the two with the most broad familiarity should be its primary competitors.
Peter J. Patrick: No idea on this one, just hazarding a guess.
Tripp Burton: Heaven Knows What has the most buzz around the filmmaking community, although the impressive science fiction world of Advantageous makes really good use of the money and could impress a lot of voters.
Thomas LaTourette: I don’t know enough about these to do more than guess.

Best Director

Cary Joji Fukunaga – Beasts of No Nation (Tripp)
Charlie Kaufman, Duke Johnson – Anomalisa
David Robert Mitchell – It Follows
Sean Baker – Tangerine
Todd Haynes – Carol (Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Tom McCarthy – Spotlight (Peter, Thomas, RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: The first rule of predicting the Spirit Awards is always go with the Oscar nominee on the list. That rule has served me well over the last few years, but I think this will be one of the year’s few categories that won’t go for the most obvious choice. Todd Haynes is a legend as a director, especially with this group, so I would see him as a very strong possibility for the win with Tom McCarthy as a close second.
Peter J. Patrick: I see McCarthy winning this one with Haynes the only other possibility.
Tripp Burton: These awards usually go to the Oscar nominee, but it is easy to see McCarthy overwhelmed here by the much flashier competition. I think Fukunaga is the most obvious recipient, but I also feel Carol could be a dark horse in these categories and could prevail here.
Thomas LaTourette: He may not be winning anywhere else, but this should go to Tom McCarthy for Spotlight. Anomalisa and Beasts of No Nation may have been more difficult to make, but I think they will honor the smart and smoothly made Spotlight.

Best Female Lead

Bel Powley – The Diary of a Teenage Girl
Brie Larson – Room (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Cate Blanchett – Carol (RU:Thomas)
Kitana Kiki Rodriguez – Tangerine
Rooney Mara – Carol (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: There are three Oscar nominees on this list, though one of them is nominated by the Academy in support. Even so, Rooney Mara stands a good chance of upsetting this category. That is she would be if there weren’t competition competition from the Oscar frontrunner, the only one nominated at the Spirit Awards this year (as opposed to two years running of four-for-four Spirit-Oscar correlations), is certain to win.
Peter J. Patrick: I see another precursor win for Larson here.
Tripp Burton: Brie Larson will have one last acceptance speech to polish before her inevitable Oscar win on Sunday.
Thomas LaTourette: Like everywhere else, Brie Larson will win for Room.

Best Male Lead

Abraham Atta – Beasts of No Nation (Wesley)
Ben Mendelsohn – Mississippi Grind (RU:Wesley)
Christopher Abbott – James White (Peter, Thomas, RU:Tripp)
Jason Segel – The End of the Tour (Tripp, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Koudous Seihon – Mediterranea

Wesley Lovell: Without a single Oscar nominee in the category, there isn’t an easy guideline. While Jason Segel is the best known name on this list, Ben Mendelsohn, Christopher Abbott and Abraham Atta all received significantly more acclaim. I’m not sure which will actually win, but I’m leaning towards Atta with Mendelsohn as the runner-up, but any of them could actually win.
Peter J. Patrick: This should be an easy one for Abbott to win.
Tripp Burton: With no Oscar nominees in the category, this is really anyone’s game: Christopher Abbott is an indie favorite, but may not be big enough to win; Abraham Attah could win if Beasts of No Nation is really popular; Ben Mendelsohn is impressive but in an underseen film; and Jason Segel is the biggest name on the list (I’m guessing Koudous Seihon is out of the running here). I’ll bet on the biggest celebrity.
Thomas LaTourette: I am not certain that they are willing to give a child the award, which may drop Abraham Atta out of consideration. Jason Segal is the biggest name of the bunch, but the more recently released James White may propel Christopher Abbot into the winner’s circle.

Best Supporting Female

Cynthia Nixon – James White (Tripp, Thomas, RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
Jennifer Jason Leigh – Anomalisa (RU:Tripp)
Marin Ireland – Glass Chin
Mya Taylor – Tangerine (Wesley, Peter, RU:Thomas)
Robin Bartlett – H.

Wesley Lovell: Another category devoid of Oscar nominees, unless you count Jennifer Jason Leigh who’s nominated at the Oscars for a different film. All that said, I think Leigh will come in a distant third to Cynthia Nixon and Mya Taylor. The cause-célèbre of the Transgender Rights Movement, Taylor sits as a leader in this category, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the well known Nixon triumph.
Peter J. Patrick: This one’s a toss-up between Taylor and Nixon.
Tripp Burton: Again, none of the Oscar-nominated performances are here, so it is anyone’s game. Cynthia Nixon is a big name and a very recognized performance, and she should win easily here.
Thomas LaTourette: Cynthia Nixon’s turn as the ill mother in James White was highly praised, so I think she will win. The fact that Jennifer Jason Leigh’s performance in Anomalisa is only her voice will count against her. Mya Taylor, in the very independent Tangerine, stands the best chance of pulling an upset.

Best Supporting Male

Idris Elba – Beasts of No Nation (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Kevin Corrigan – Results
Michael Shannon – 99 Homes (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Paul Dano – Love & Mercy (RU:Tripp)
Richard Jenkins – Bone Tomahawk

Wesley Lovell: Would that the Oscars had nominated Idris Elba, Michael Shannon and/or Paul Dano, we’d know which way to vote, but they ignored all three. That said, with a SAG award under his belt, there’s little reason to suspect that Elba won’t be winning here, but indie legend Shannon could upset.
Peter J. Patrick: I see Elba taking this in a walk.
Tripp Burton: Idris Elba pulled off a surprise SAG win, and should repeat here, especially with no Oscar nominees to go against.
Thomas LaTourette: Idris Elba should repeat his SAG win here. His closest competition would be either Paul Dano in Love & Mercy or Michael Shannon in 99 Homes, with the slight edge to Shannon.

Best Screenplay

Anomalisa
The End of the Tour
Carol (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Bone Tomahawk
Spotlight (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: There are two Oscar nominees here and both have a solid shot at winning, but the level of acclaim Spotlight has received for its screenplay suggests that any other result would be shocking.
Peter J. Patrick: This one’s easily within in Spotlight‘s reach.
Tripp Burton: The two Oscar nominees should duke it out here, and despite Spotlight‘s dominance of this category all season, this is also their best chance to honor Carol.
Thomas LaTourette: The well written Spotlight should easily win here over the slower paced Carol.

Best First Screenplay

Room (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Me and Earl and the Dying Girl (RU:Thomas)
The Diary of a Teenage Girl (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
Mediterranea
The Mend

Wesley Lovell: Room is nominated for a screenwriting Oscar and shouldn’t have much trouble winning here, though any of the others could ultimately take the prize without too much shock.
Peter J. Patrick: Room should triumph over the competition here.
Tripp Burton: Room has the Oscar nomination, and it should easily win this award over some weaker competition. It’s only real competitor is Diary of a Teenage Girl, but there are other places to honor that.
Thomas LaTourette: Room was a difficult novel to adapt and should easily win, though the humorous Me and Earl and the Dying Girl could give it a run for its money.

Best Editing

It Follows (Wesley)
Manos Sucias
Room (Tripp, RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Heaven Knows What
Spotlight (Peter, Thomas, RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: The second category I’m going against my First Rule is to select something other than Oscar nominee Spotlight. While the film’s editing is superb, it’s not very flashy, which opens this category up to another winner. It could be Room for connecting two different spaces easily, but I’m leaning towards the acclaimed horror film It Follows, which would likely have the most noticeable editing of all of these.
Peter J. Patrick: Spotlight should take this one easily.
Tripp Burton: The editing of Spotlight, even if it is an awards favorite, doesn’t feel splashy enough to pick up an award like this. Room or It Follows should be flashy and beloved enough to squeak ahead of it, but it could be anyone’s game.
Thomas LaTourette: For being a movie about newspaper writers following leads, Spotlight was an interesting and fairly fast-paced movie and it should win here.

Best Cinematography

Beasts of No Nation (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Carol (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Songs My Brothers Taught Me
It Follows (RU:Tripp)
Meadowland

Wesley Lovell: The only Oscar nominee of the bunch, Carol, should have little difficulty in winning. The photography was one of the most impressive elements of the film and with no other visually impressive nominees in the bunch, I have a hard time believing anything else can win.
Peter J. Patrick: I don’t see much competition here for Carol.
Tripp Burton: Ed Lachman’s luscious Carol is one of the surest victories of the night.
Thomas LaTourette: The elegant camera work of Carol should win, though the explosions of Beasts will give it some competition.

Best International Film

A Pigeon Sat on a Branch Reflecting on Existence
Embrace the Serpent
Girlhood (RU:Tripp)
Mustang (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Son of Saul (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Three Oscar nominees sit together in this category and any of them could win, but there’s no reason to bet against the likely Oscar winner: Son of Saul.
Peter J. Patrick: The Holocaust drama is the likely winner.
Tripp Burton: Son of Saul keeps picking up these awards, and I don’t see this as any different.
Thomas LaTourette: Son of Saul has been on a roll and should easily win, unless they go for the easier to digest Mustang.

Best Documentary

(T)error
Best of Enemies (RU:Peter)
Heart of a Dog
Meru (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
The Look of Silence (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
The Russian Woodpecker

Wesley Lovell: Somehow, when I posted the nominees, I skipped Best of Enemies in my post. I’ve corrected all of that, but its chances at winning aren’t very good with the likes of Heart of a Dog, Meru and Oscar nominee The Look of Silence in the running. It may lose the Oscar to Amy, but The Look of Silence should make up for it here.
Peter J. Patrick: The Look of Silence should take this one easily.
Tripp Burton: Without frontrunner Amy, this is a chance for another film to finally pick up a major Documentary award. Look for the praised, yet difficult Look of Silence to triumph here, although Heart of a Dog and Meru could upset it easily, especially if the subject matter scared off some viewers for Look of Silence.
Thomas LaTourette: This will likely go to one of the two films that have gotten the most press, Meru or The Look of Silence. Meru was probably the more difficult to film, but I would give the edge to the higher rated and Oscar-nominated Look of Silence.