We had three films release this past weekend with the potential for Oscar nominations.

Arrival

For many years, science fiction was the forgotten child at the Oscars. That genre, along with horror, have a history of being ignored, even when some of the greatest films of the genre were released, such as 2001: A Space Odyssey, Psycho and Close Encounters of the Third Kind. While films like Star Wars and E.T. – The Extra-Terrestrial managed to break the sci-fi logjam, it wouldn’t be until District 9 in 2009 that the Academy began looking seriously at those films that looked at society through a futuristic lens.

After District 9, Inception, Gravity, and The Martian, the genre has gotten a solid boost with the Academy, which has permitted studios to greenlight more and more genre pics. Arrival, though, is entirely different from these four films. District 9 deals with aliens already present, Inception deals with a pseudo-scientific alternate reality within the dreamspace, and Gravity and The Martian both deal with present-day or immediate-future realities where the vastness of science forms the backbone of the story and not alien invasion or contact.

Arrival is an incredibly pensive film. That’s something the Academy hasn’t shown a great deal of admiration for. As such, I suspect that Arrival might face a tougher challenge of getting nominated than those other four films. While Interstellar collapsed under its own self-serving weight, Arrival‘s slow deliberate pace may just not be exciting enough for Oscar voters. That doesn’t mean it won’t be nominated, but it may not be an easy nod to get.

That said, Amy Adams is almost certainly in line for another nomination. Though the performance isn’t the tour-de-force she would need to command Oscar glory, it’s strong enough to be a key competitor for a nomination. Either this or Nocturnal Animals will earn her the nomination. Jeremy Renner, Michael Stuhlbarg, and Forest Whitaker might be periphery considerations in a weak year. That could give them a boost this year, but none of them do Oscar-caliber work, so it’s more likely they’ll be ignored.

Director Denis Villeneuve will continue to be a bridesmaid at the Oscars as the five-slot Best Director category is overflowing with contenders and, as stylish as this film is, it just doesn’t have the strength of boldness that Gravity had to earn Alejandro G. Inarritu an Oscar. The tech categories will be more friendly. Film Editing, Cinematography, Sound Mixing, and Sound Editing are all strong possibilities, with the latter two pretty assured. Two other categories have vague potential.

Best Original Score will be an assured nomination only if the score is deemed eligible. The film uses prominently “On The Nature Of Daylight” by Max Richter. The piece is used effectively at the beginning and the end. The music branch is notorious for disqualifying competitors for less, so it will be interesting to see if it is declared eligible or not. It would be a shame if it weren’t, but I’m not holding my breath.

The other area of potential is Best Visual Effects and the main reason the film WON’T be nominated in that category in spite of its four sci-fi Best Picture predecessors having been. The reason for that is simple: while there are plenty of effects, they are largely incidental to the plot. A hovering space ship, an gravitational shift, and other elements are plainly worthy, but that lack of boldness may hinder the film. While some films have been nominated with strong supporting visual effects, they aren’t as common. It could be nominated on the strength of the film’s tech haul, but I wouldn’t hold out too much hope.

Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Ang Lee is one of the few directors to win two Oscars for Best Director, and of those, is the only one never to have had a film win Best Picture. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk, the story of a soldier returning home after heroics on a foreign battlefield to be claimed a hero. As he reflects back on his time overseas, he questions whether he really is a hero and whether he wants to be celebrated while struggling to come to terms with love.

Lee’s films have a sensibility that Academy voters cling to. Outside of a few incidences, Lee’s films have been consistently recognized by the Academy. In 13 prior films, he’s been nominated for seven of them. That’s an impressive record. That’s what makes Billy Lynn‘s fate so disappointing. Although it was at the top of most prediction lists heading into festival season, its drop at the New York Film Festival didn’t go well. The film disappointed critics and currently sits at a Rotten rating with Rotten Tomatoes. That alone will doom the film’s chances in the top categories.

There’s still hope, though. The film has a war setting, which will enable it to earn consideration from the sound department, giving the film its best opportunities for nominations in Sound Editing and Sound Mixing. It might play a role in the Original Score category as well, but I suspect those are its only hopes at this juncture and even those are limited.

Elle

Although France has had some near misses in the Oscars’ Foreign Language Film competition Paul Verhoeven’s psycho-sexual thriller might bring the country its second nomination in a row. Before that, you have to go back to 2009 for the last nomination, the end of a fairly steady streak of mentions.

In addition, there’s some chatter that Isabelle Huppert might finally earn that Oscar nomination many have felt she’s deserved for some time. It could also earn a nod in the screenwriting category. These are the only places foreign language films that aren’t period dramas stand a chance at Oscar recognition.

Huppert fights against a very strong slate of potential Best Actress contenders. The chances of a nomination aren’t great, but there are some who steadfastly believe she’ll get in, especially if she has support from critics. However, things are starting to look like a fight between Emma Stone and Natalie Portman with the critics taking sides, possibly split between the two. Huppert could sneak in, but I would rate her chances low. The screenplay might do better thanks to solid reviews from critics, but that’s another situation I’m doubtful of.